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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu September 26th, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Slava Ukraini - 4/1 7 Plain Or Peanut - 2/1 3 Mister Charming - 5/2

Have to think it was just the company that 5-SLAVA UKRAINI faced in recent starts but there is really no reason why he shouldn't find himself on the front end in this field to kick off the day. He gets class relief back to the level of the claim, finds a field lacking of early pace and picks up a rider in Reyes who has had a fine meet. He has to get sent for the top in here. 7-PLAIN OR PEANUT would have been my top choice if not for just the one work off the 2 1/2 month layoff. He gets Slevinsky back in the saddle, who won aboard him on June 1 but will need some pace to close into. 3-MISTER CHARMING has had success over the track and should be worth the look, if he can rate. That's a big if with the 10 lbs. bug in the saddle as getting sent away for the leave could compromise both his chances as well as Slava Ukraini. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Atkins - 5/2 1 Gluckstadt - 8/1 5 Danville - 4/1

With the likelihood of speed being shown by both Findaway and Chaos Reigns on the outside, things should set up nicely for 4-ATKINS to rate and run on in the lane. His last three starts on the dirt have been solid, including a second place effort at this level last out to a solid racehorse in Category Ten. He picks up the journeyman Centeno today as he should be rolling in the lane. 1-GLUCKSTADT ran a decent fourth at this level two back and likely needed his last on the turf. He's worked a couple of times since that start and with a drying out track may benefit from the rail draw and a ground saving trip. 5-DANVILLE is one who has quite consistent and likes this Hawthorne strip. He ran well at this level two back before being left to chase the lone pace in his last. With a different race complexion today it should help his chances.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Stable Currency - 7/2 9 Nadjameansbusiness - 4/1 6 Show Me the Light - 20/1

On turf or dirt, 4-STABLE CURRENCY should be sitting on a winning effort off a good debut in her last. She rated well and ran on late in that spot and has since followed that start with a nice work. There is some pace in this race as the added distance should be to her liking as well. 9-NADJAMEANSBUSINESS debuts off a pattern of very snappy works, including three straight out of the gate. I expect she is sent to clear from the outside in here as we will see if she has company from Faith Hope N Love should she choose to go. 6-SHOW ME THE LIGHT could be the longshot sleeper in this spot. She didn't show much at Fairmount in her two starts there but ran a respectable third at Hawthorne on August 1 where she closed nicely along the rail late. With the added distance I would expect her to settle back early and charge in the stretch.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Man of Quality - 7/2 8 Mark My Memory - 6/1 1 Good to Be Prince - 5/2

This is a sneaky tough race with the potential for 3-4 horses to get sent away. The presence of ET back riding adds a horse like Best Dressed Man to the possibility of that pace battled. Maybe he sneaks off at a higher price than the 7-2 morning line as 6-MAN OF QUALITY figures nicely in here off his recent race and rider change. He ran on late in his last and should be able to settle early and close in here. The added 16th could help his chances as well. 8-MARK MY MEMORY was well intended on debut and took action as he was sent away at 9-2 in that spot. He ran into a good one in Baby Boat but did lead that field into the lane. I think he rates close in here but may be best off avoiding a pace battle upfront. The likely short price will be 1-GOOD TO BE PRINCE for strong connections of Cohen and Rivelli. He chased on debut and ran on late in what was a solid grass bunch. I'm not a huge fan of the rail draw in here though as he may have to work through some traffic as the pace may be coming back at him in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Moment to Shine - 3/1 6 Madelyn Belle - 5/2 4 Icy River - 12/1

Another race where turf or dirt shouldn't matter for 7-MOMENT TO SHINE as she has been solid on both surfaces. There is some speed in here so she will need to avoid getting into a duel early as she has actually run her best races from off the pace. Let's see if Baird can get her to rate. 6-MADELYN BELLE has been on the grass in her last three but is actually far better on the dirt in my estimation as shown by her three consecutive dirt wins to open the Hawthorne season. She does have speed and should be sent for the top regardless of what surface this race is on. 4-ICY RIVER has run more recently on dirt but has some back turf form. She was quarter horsed for the front in her last but was empty inside the final sixteenth. With a more experienced rider today let's see if she can rate a bit and run on late.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Quiero Dinero - 5/1 4 Crystal Snow - 7/2 2 Resolution - 6/1

The break will probably dictate the race for 1-QUIERO DINERO as she will have more than enough pace to chase and just needs to get away in better order. She has run well in her three starts at this level and could be a decent price in here. 4-CRYSTAL SNOW has been on grass of late but the shift to dirt could help her chances today. Her dirt sprint four back as a good effort as her style should also suit the pace in this race. 2-RESOLUTION chased in her last but lacked some late kick in that spot. Her effort two back was a bit better as she's another that could close into a tiring pace battle upfront.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Professor Higgins - 15/1 5 Sir Pistolero - 5/1 9 Sharp Stick - 3/1

I have absolutely no idea what to expect in here if this race happens to come off the turf as there are three trainers with two apiece in this spot and only a handful that could handle both surfaces it appears. It's a quick return but 4-PROFESSOR HIGGINS ran a nice race on grass two back and held his own while sprinting on the dirt in his last. This is a quick turnaround but he fits and keeps Slevinsky in the saddle. 5-SIR PISTOLERO has been away since May but has also shown some ability on both surfaces. He should be able to show some speed in this spot but will just need to avoid hooking up with Man On Attack in here. 9-SHARP STICK is another that has recently been solid on turf but he has run equally as well on the dirt is a good spot to step up and try this level as he could catch a softer bunch for this first level allowance.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 Docs Seven - 7/5 4 I Think I Know You - 15/1 10 Tribest [ARG] - 8/1

Turf or dirt, 8-DOCS SEVEN looks to be a standout in this spot as she comes off a good win in her last. She won that race on the turf but ran a big race against starter company on the grass four back. With her versatility and the field she faces today, she looks to be a standout. 4-I THINK I KNOW YOU is probably looking for dirt in here as she has run well in her last three and comes back to Hawthorne today. She will need some pace to chase but picks up Cohen as she could be running on in the lane. 10-TRIBEST has been on turf for her last four but actually broke her maiden on the dirt five starts back. She has sprinted with some success in the past and is another one that looks to contend on turf or dirt.