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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun September 29th, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Golden Buck - 4-1 3 Prince Is My Boy - 7-2 1 Regimental - 5-2

Fingers crossed that the rain from the hurricane stays South of us as forecasted for this excellent Sunday card. Regardless of conditions, The Carey Memorial will remain on the turf. Hopefully all four races stay on the grass. We open with a dirt route as there is little pace in the lid lifter which could benefit the chances of 5-GOLDEN BUCK today. He was claimed out of his last and rises slightly but was solid in his maiden score and looks to be able to show some speed. Let's see if he can back things down on the front end and kick away late. 3-PRINCE IS MY BOY broke his maiden in a race taken off the grass and most recently ran a solid third at a mile at Prairie. He should be able to rate close in here and could be a factor the entire way.1-REGIMENTAL broke his maiden in the slop here four starts back before running on the grass in his last three. I like the move back to the dirt as he's the other that could rate close from the rail draw.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Adiva - 5-2 4 Style - 5-1 5 Go Stormin Girl - 7-2

Have to think that with the class drop and turn back to a dirt sprint that 1-ADIVA should get a perfect trip in here. She gets Cohen in the saddle once again in a race where the pace is to the outside. If she can save ground into the lane she should be able to roll by late. 4-STYLE is another that can close in the stretch as she has been good in recent races. She also faced tougher in her most recent start as the pace was extremely slow. The move to the sprint will also likely benefit her today. 5-GO STORMIN GIRL is as honest as they come as she has had a solid season. She was a game winner in her last and has shown she will dig in when challenged. If pressed early, she could be the one to emerge clear in the end. We will just see how much the other pace wears her down.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Brit Blitz - 7-2 6 Kingsburry Attack - 8-1 3 T Law - 3-1

Going a little bit on back class here as 4-BRIT BLITZ looks to turn things around off his last couple of starts. He ran well on the grass in Minnesota in June and July as does find a field where he should be able to close ground in the lane. The distance suits and maybe the recent form will allow for a bit of a price. 6-KINGSBURY ATTACK ran an improved race in his last as he chased from the second flight and ran on late. He could build off that performance and threaten at a price in here. 3-T LAW has been knocking on the door for that first win of the year as he comes off back to back solid turf tries. He will also need some pace to chase but should come running late.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Oeuvre - 2-5 2 Commissioner Gulch - 5-1 5 Racetothefinish - 6-1

Maybe if Purr Sea was in here I would look for an upset but even then I'm not really sure they are beating Oeuvre today. She carries a lot of weight in this race, but the 128 that she carried on May 19 didn't stop her. She is so classy and will likely be in a perfect stalking spot in here. 2-COMMISSIONER GULCH has tactical speed as she ran third to Oeuvre in the Third Chance earlier in the meet. She was a good winner around two turns in her last and will benefit if her stablemate presses the favorite early. That stablemate is 5-RACETOTHEFINISH as she will likely be sent for the top in an effort to steal this race. She's won her last couple and finds the right spot to try stakes company as E.T. gets the call.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Rietta - 10-1 1 Roar of Silence - 5-1 4 Atmidnight - 5-2

This is a really tricky turf event as there isn't a ton of pace in this race. With that in mind, I'll look to 2-RIETTA to possibly try to make the top and steal this one. She sprinted on the grass in her last couple and seemed to take to the turf. The two turns could play to her benefit if she can clear and relax on the lead. 1-ROAR OF SILENCE was sitting on a big effort in her last before losing her rider out of the gate. She's back at this level again and with clear sailing should get a good stalking trip. 4-ATMIDNIGHT comes off the claim as she has been sharp on the turf. The one thing working against her is her running style is she figures to be well back early and trying to close in a race with little early pace.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Lost Sunset - 4-5 8 Allotrope - 8-1 3 Run for Your Honey - 9-2

As much as I wanted to try, I just don't think any others in here are good enough to beat 1-LOST SUNSET. The favorite draws the fence and is the best of the pace. She drops back down after facing allowance runners last out and keeps Emigh aboard. Expect her to clear and coast on the front end. 8-ALLOTROPE should be stalking the pace and may chase the entire way. She does get some class relief as well as she picks up bug Slevinsky for this start. 3-RUN FOR YOUR HONEY shortens up as she switches to the Reavis barn and also gets class relief. This is quite the drop off her recent starts which does leave some questions today.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Not Very Gentle - 10-1 9 Two Cookie Rule - 8-1 8 Cool Quartet - 2-1

A good amount of pace in this race as things could set up nicely for 4-NOT VERY GENTLE to rate and run on late. After a good season last year he has been looking to regain his form a bit. He likes this track and the price will be right as well. 9-TWO COOKIE RULE should be in a good stalking spot as he has found the board in his last five starts. He was a game winner in his last as Reyes has been a fine fit in the saddle. 8-COOL QUARTET battled in his last as he was pressed the entire way and held on to finish third. With the class relief in here he figures to take some action.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Sendero - 3-1 3 Nathaniel's Hope - 8-1 8 Even the Wind - 5-2

We close out the day on the grass as we get another field with a good amount of pace. One that should stalk and run on late is 2-SENDERO as he runs back to a similar level of the victory last out. With the inside draw he should be able to save ground and get the jump on the deep closers. 3-NATHANIEL'S HOPE will be showing speed but may have company as well. He does get a little class relief into this spot but will need to shake loose from Euclid Avenue early. 8-EVEN THE WIND will also take action as he gets class relief in here. He has been sharp in his last three and keeps Mojica aboard. Expect a sharp effort at a short price.