Handicapper Tips & Picks

Trainer C. Block will send out a solid pair in this spot: #7 EXECUTOR has the edge with the turf experience and BTL debut after missing the break (VSLOG) and showed a strong MOVE and visuals to suggest he can IMPROVE; #4 TAUNTING should benefit from the debut 18-days ago with TROUBLE_S also making a COVER MOVE behind the open length winner, Baby Boat and continued to GALLOP+ after the wire.

Trainer T. Padilla sent out a very live runner on Sunday in Chasentheone and could have very similar in this spot with #8 BUZZSAW. They have every license to IMPROVE off their debut last month at CBY off the trip/TACTIC- showing run especially late with a strong CLOSE and based on the visuals appears to hold surface versatility.

M. Boyce will also send out a pair (IL-bred pair) in this race with some positive changes: #1 FRONTIER MARSHAL debuted in the 9/15 common race showing run after the SLOG making a WIDE MOVE and should benefit from today’s STRETCH out in distance; #6 RUMBING picks up the blinkers with the move to turf along with a rider change to A. Centeno (positive ROI $27% win, 77% ITM) with the majority of success for the pairing on the main track. Previous rider O. Hernandez sticks with #3 ROYAL BRO following the B place effort behind the Boyce trained Journey last month.

#4 CUTLASS KING trained here locally before showing up at KYD to make their debut, a rare move for the A. Hernandez barn sending out only 2 runners there since 2020. That could suggest intent and perhaps favorable with the work since and picking up C. Emigh for this second start. 

This is a very odd race shape with the lack of E/EP type runners changes the Plot position for others in this field. That includes ML favorable, #5 MILLARD’S SMILE one that has constantly taken up a Q4 Square role moves into the early contention naturally for this race. #4 DEVIL VISION also finds a Plot position change though perhaps more consistent with his recent races showing tactical speed with the class drop in their most recent starts. The intent appears in play returning on the quick turnaround and reuniting with E. Gallardo from a less than ideal TACTIC- ride last week.

With the runners taken out of their runstyle and likely to see #3 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS pick up the chase with stretch out #6 CHRISTMAS PRESENT naturally showing early speed, that assists the off the pace types with #2 IZEONDEC looking for back-to-back wins under A. Santos as well as the return of #7 IMPULSIVENESS one that pulled off the 11-1 deep closing win here going back to opening weekend. 

A competitive turf sprint with very few “tosses” in this group and a solid projected favorite in #7 YO DAWG returning to the turf. They stayed in the race 11-days ago on the main track as well as the 8/29 event both starts WEATHER impacted racing in the rain over poor track conditions and GATE/TROUBLES+ impacting their break. Perhaps that being the knock when paired with a short price in this contentious event.

#4 CYCLONE ATTACK projected to move up with the class drop racing into shape and from the competitive stakes race earlier this season from the layoff. They return in a second start in for the claiming tag and upgraded with today’s race shape back to Q1, the position of their state bred allowance win back in May.

#6 PINBALLER was given a longshot look two weeks ago returning to the turf and also added front wraps. He has some upside from that trip and ground loss making a WIDE MOVE, against the profile. #2 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL also compromised X_BIAS returning from the layoff last month in that common race. The change in post is noted for #8 GRAND HIDEWAY as trip comes back into play and benefit from the cozy inside stalking trip from the rail/inside in the races this season.

#1 RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM also presents some upside making anis MOVE X_FLOW in the August higher level claiming event, his first start against winners. With that said, he will be required to step up in this spot, a rise in par from his previous races while in maiden company and required to run back to that lone speed figure from December 2022, the only number on par for this race and competitive with this group. 

#7 KAELY’S SISTER was unable to get by #1 PURR SEA (and together with #6 BEEHIVE for the minors) last month under similar conditions though will look to turn the tables with a different draw and race dynamic as her L. Rivelli stablemate, #3 WILMA MANKILLER will look to make the lead under Baird for a contentious (Fire) early pace. This will also be the second start of the form cycle for KAELY’S SISTER one that might have required a break after stringing 4 straight wins and improving figures along with posting B+ OptixGRADES in those wins. She is valid as a prime contender off those efforts and with the value as she does not project to be as short on the board today.

#2 BROKEN HEARTS BAY also fits this condition returning to Hawthorne in her second start of the cycle following the BLANKET finish last month. She has shown some gate issues this season, something to keep in mind as far as value and with D/ Cohen picking up the mount with A. Centeno sticking with BEEHIVE – D. Cohen has ridden well here this season, however, has been winless since 9/19 and come up short with favorites along the way. 

The lower SpeedRate moves up runners with early speed and #2 MISS MIKOS the most “obvious” in that role. She will make her second start against winner and off the layoff looking to improve off the place finish last month. She had a PERFECT trip though could have been short giving up recency off the two month break and mentally requiring the start as she was restless in the GATE.

The dynamic should suit #5 SAY CHEESE a solid race mare that should hold value in this field. She comes into this race with current form in this third start back off the layoff.  Some intent could be in play returning to Hawthorne where she has been able to win in the past and under similar par/allowance conditions to today’s event.

The complexion of this race could require #6 DEVIL to track closer to the pace once again and while capable in that dynamic, she does appear to prefer to rate and make one turn, at least keying off her wins, that appears to be her trip. #8 SECRET OPERATION also tends to fall into that same stalk-and-pounce trip though given respect here again and upgraded from the 9/19 start making a WIDE MOVE racing X_BIAS on a day that favored inside speed. 

The analysis starts with #2 ESCOVEDO as she projects to be favored first out for L. Rivelli. She comes into this race with steady works as of late though a noted late start for this debut. She worked 10 flat back at the March sale and recorded a couple of local works here in the spring and then a gap in that published series from early April until picking back up in the beginning of August.  #8 LADY ELISE brings in a consistent work tab topped off with a bullet half mile move from the gate on 9/26 to suggest she is race ready. That could come with further intent late in the meet and as an IL-bred looking to catch the right group as well as pick up the statebred bonus.

In terms of the runners with experience, #7 CAVALLA as a new face on this circuit is the most intriguing of the group. She will make some subtle changes along with the circuit from the surface to distance (positive shortening up) and move to an outer post for the first time in this fourth start. The 9/5 race winner, Pure Majestic is so far the only horse to have run back from that race though flattered with another front running win taking the Selima Stakes at LRL on 9/28.

In recent years, trainer E. Lopez is still looking for the first win with a debut runner though with 37% in the money it could just be a matter of time. #1 BLACK GINGER has a strong published time back on 8/8 in the half mile drill and strong front end rider in C. Emigh to show speed from the rail. 

Another competitive turf race, though in this case some knocks can be made on the projected favorites looking at the Plot as a downgrade for #9 SAILING SOLO and giving up recency (as well as Plot Average-) for #6 TEMPER TANTRUM returning from the layoff and significant class drop to look elsewhere.

TEMPER TANTRUM will be joined by stablemate #8 BANDIT SWANSON with recency edge along with improvement this season from the layoff and from the BTL effort (along with front wrap removal) on 9/8. Looking at the Plot he fits today’s race shape and could be a positive with the class rise and back class to support another move forward.

T. Young will also be represented by a pair with #2 COLOSSEO claimed off the 9/15 win and back under similar conditions today looking to pair up results with O. Mojica back aboard. #1 RIVER REDEMPTION also from that common race and upgraded making a CLOSE against the dynamic (VS early/late) in the show finish.

Looking at the Plot, the value sits with #7 REJECTION HURTS over #5 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY the two showing up with a similar Plot and trip upgrade (B-) wheeling back in a week from the CBY event. Value should also be considered for #4 WICKED SURPRISE one that was able to sneak away with LONE trips back in August and unlikely to find that scenario with COLOSSEO and SAILING SOLO in this field. Long shot #3 LAND MARK DEAL follows an “every other” pattern to suggest a move forward in this part of his form cycle and on his best day he fits in with the main contenders in this field. 

The effort two back in August fits on par for #7 RIVZONAROLL and looking at the Plot should be the “speed of the speed” – Q1 close to the ParLine in thus field. Like many of the Q1 in this race the lack of finishing ability (Circle) is present and will require that top effort to clear. #8 SOUPER FORTUNE is the lone Q1 Square and tough to ignore on that alone to fit today’s race shape. #9 SLAVA UKRAINI also part of that Q1 despite the change in distance and with the fitness from the longer races along with the outside draw could find a positive tracking trip and showed last week (9/26) he makes for a strong fit at this conditional claiming level.

The Fire Contention should assist #4 BUMPERDOO looking at he Plot (ABOVE) and ABOVE+ on Class/Speed, though the main question is Form giving up a lot of recency returning from the 384-day layoff for this race. #1 FLEET OF HOOF has the edge on recency coming from PRM into this spot in the third start back off the layoff though has shown some gate issues (SLOG) and should be considered on value with this race shape and the rail draw. #2 MON AMI FUZZIE also has the SLOG pattern though some buried local form this season including a sneaky good B- OptixGRADE effort at this level back on 8/4 – he finds a similar Plot position and shape to BUMPERDOO in this field as far as trip.

The pace/trip extends to assist #10 MKAR THE FAST one that should be overlooked coming into this event for the connection though brings a very positive OptixGRADE progression in this current form cycle as shown in the Past 3 Runlines of OptixGRID. Keying off their Plot position and shape A. Santos should be able to get the jump and first run on #11 PADDY’S HOUSE one that has been consistent with the C+ races this season something that requires some value overall and with his runstyle whereas both #3 PERFECT WAGER and #6 IMPERIAL MOMENT “plot” similar and should be longer odds compared to PADDY’S HOUSE and even #12 RUNWAY READY – a deeper Q4 closer here.  

The two H. Robertson runners have a look in this field leading with the experience edge from #6 CUPID’S EXPRESSION landing here for her second start. Physically she has some size to her and part of that played a role with the inside/SAVED trip and never looked comfortable in running. Despite some adversity in running, she finished a solid show earning a B- and the surface change should not be an issue presenting physical versatility. #3 PURE HICKORY will make a very belated debut and racing here as the lone four-year-old in the field. She has a long steady work tab and timing  becomes “ready or not” at this point. She picks up a strong rider in I. Hernandez coming off a strong week of TACTIC+ trips to work out wins. The barn does have a debuting 4yo filly winner over this turf course sprinting called Fudge Brownie back in 2022. 

Of the more “experienced” runners in this group, #7 AIN’T NO OTHER finds the change to this circuit and ain’t no reason she should not be able to transfer her form under today’s conditions. With that said, she really has not shown much improvement since her debut back in March and number wise fits in line with the runners returning from the 9/1 and 9/12 common races all with figures similar to one another (value the main separator of those runners) and have shown off their form and efforts this season who they are as the types that should run their race once again here. 

Kick off the day with juvenile turf runners as I'll look to 2-CUTLASS KING to open things up. Cutlass King debuted at Kentucky Downs and was able to split the field in that spot. He finds things a bit easier in here as he figures to rate and rally late. 3-ROYAL BRO will take action off a good debut as he rated a bit closer early and ran on in the lane. He stretches out off that performance and could show a bit more speed in this spot. 4-TAUNTING chased on the dirt in his debut and was a good second to a solid winner in Baby Boat. With the shift to grass and stretch in distance he's another that could show a bit more early speed.

There's not much pace in here which could lead to a slower pace where 4-DEVIL VISION may inherit the lead. He ran well in recent starts in Minnesota and should be a factor throughout. 6- CHRISTMAS PRESENT is another that can show some speed on the stretch in distance as he has run well over this surface throughout his career. Let's see if he can threaten at a bit of a price. 5-MILLARD'S SMILE will take action in here off a string a recent solid races. He's another that likes this Hawthorne strip but is going to need some pace to chase.

A few class droppers in here but the horse that figures most is 7-YO DAWG as he looks to get back to the grass. With his recent form it is surprising to see he has yet to win on turf but he has found the board in 8 of 9 on the grass and should be sitting on a winning performance today. 8-GRAND HIDEAWAY was a good winner in his last as he settled closer early and drew clear late. If he can get a similar trip here he may look to get the jump on Yo Dawg into the lane. 1-RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM has sprinted in his last couple of starts, including a maiden breaker two back. He figures to rate back a bit early but should benefit from the rail trip today.

Normally I would have picked Purr Sea in this spot but I was really surprised she wasn't in the stakes race on Sunday instead of this race. Going to look elsewhere and give the nod to 7-KAELY'S SISTER as she has had a fine year, finding the board in all six races since her return off the layoff. From the outside she should be able to dictate her position early and will likely contend every step of he way. 6-BEEHIVE is another with speed who has also been very good at Hawthorne as she has never been worse than second in nine Hawthorne starts. Centeno has been aboard in the last eight and returns in the saddle today. 2-BROKEN HEARTS BAY was an allowance winner here back in April and just missed in her last start off the layoff at Prairie Meadows. She will be hoping for a contested pace to chase as she figures to come running in the lane.

A solid allowance field as another Boyce runner is in with a shot. This time it's 6-DEVIL as she comes off a fine win in her last where she rated and rallied in the lane. That was against state-bred company and she shifts to face open runners in here. She does fit though and could easily repeat that performance. 3-TWAS LOLA ran a big race in her last as she chased in that spot and ran on late. She makes her second start back off the rest and a repeat of that performance will put her right there once again. 2-MISS MIKOS has some speed as she has been sharp in her last couple as well. She was second as the favorite behind Devil in her last but may be assertive and look to head for the top in this spot.

A good field of juvenile runners in this spot as I'll go to the experience of 5-NOTIPTONI today. She has run well in all four starts and was a good third when facing the boys in her last. With the move back to the girls today, she looks to be sitting on a big race. 8-LADY ELISE debuts as she has worked very well coming into here. The breeding and works both suggest that we will see speed from her at the start as I like the outside draw in this debut. 2-ESCOVEDO debuts for Rivelli with a decent work pattern as I'll be curious to see what type of early action she takes. Expect some early speed and blinkers for the first start.

This is a really solid field for this level as I'll be curious to see what the pace scenario is. With some of the speed to the inside, I wonder if 9-SAILING SOLO chooses to rate a bit and then move at the top of the lane. He has always been a game racehorse and has never missed the board at the mile distance. 2-COLOSSEO inherited the lead in his last and battled to the victory in a race he was claimed out of. In here I expect he settles off the pace a bit but I like that Mojica takes the return ride. 5-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY will be hoping there are numerous runners showing some speed in here as he will likely settle back early and make one run late. He does take the class drop today but may still provide some value.

On grass, 7-AIN'T NO OTHER is going to be quite tough as she gets some class relief with the move to Hawthorne from recent starts in Indiana. Look for her to settle a bit off the early pace and come running in the lane. 6-CUPID'S OBSESSION ran well on the dirt in her debut as she chased and ran on late. I expect she rates close early in here and is a factor throughout. 4-ISABELLA'S BEAUTY is likely to show speed in here as I figure she is going to try to clear. If she can shake loose early she could hang around late.

3-ROYAL BRO just missed when making his turf debut. He rapidly made up a couple lengths in the stretch, only to come up a neck short. This race is considerably longer which would seem to work in his favor but there is no guarantee. 7-EXECUTOR finished a couple lengths behind top pick in that turf race but he was another moving well late and another that might benefit from the longer distance of this contest. 2-CUTLASS KING only split the field of 12 in his debut, also a turf race, but he was racing at the tough Kentucky Downs meets. Chances are that he’s meeting easier here. Don’t overlook.

5-MILLARD’S SMILE drops back to the right level. He was in too tough in last in his first start after getting claimed by this barn but he had won his previous two starts, for two different trainers, before last. Could get back on the winning track with the drop. 4-DEVIL VISION ships in from Minnesota. He’s probably been meeting a bit tougher in his races up there. Late runner has been in pretty good form. Could be tough in this spot. 6-CHRISTMAS PRESENT hasn’t had much luck in previous route races but he’s stretching out for this race and he should hold a considerable speed edge, at least early. Might hang on.

2-MIDNIGHT SPECIAL might be able to surprise. His last race, his first here and his first contest since November, wasn’t bad but not sure he got the best ride. Switches to a much hotter rider. Has the benefit of a recent race. Maybe. 7-YO DAWG could be tough. He never won on the lawn but he has finished in the money in eight of his nine turf races. This is possibly the easiest field he ever met on grass. Might finally get it done. 8-GRAND HIDEAWAY obviously figures. He won last beating many in this field including top choice. Might be able to do it again.

Tough little race. 1-PURR SEA is all of a sudden at the top of her game again. For the majority of her career, she was a front runner but they changed tactics in last couple, took her off the early pace, and it worked wonders. Winner of last two just beat most of these rivals. Guessing she’ll do it again. 7-KAELY’S SISTER had a four-race win streak broken in last. She was favored in the race but didn’t seem to run her race. But she has bounced back from “dull” efforts in the past. Might be able to do it again. 6-BEEHIVE, stablemate of top pick, is also at the top of her game. Although she couldn’t get past her buddy in last two, she did finish second in both. She’s had seven races this year, winning three of them and finishing second in the other four. She’s a very real contender. 2-BROKEN HEART’S BAY ships back from Iowa after narrowly losing last. She had a couple races here earlier in the meet and won one of them. Wouldn’t overlook.

2-MISS MIKOS gets the nod, albeit a slim one. She’s been in good form. She’s had four wins this year, winning once but finishing second in her other four. However, her local races have been against state breds and she’s meeting open company today. 3-TWAS LOLA just finished second in might have been her best race of the year. She was coming off a 10-week layoff and she might be better prepared for this race. 6-DEVIL, like her stablemate Purr Sea from an earlier race, was taken off the pace in last and it worked wonders. She was able to relax early and finish strong for the win. Seems likely to get the same kind of trip today.

3-MISS CONTROL FREAK isn’t a strong choice but I like the way she can sustain her run while those in here that have raced have all tended to fade late. The pace of this race figures to be pretty quick. Maybe she’ll run them all down. Paying a lot of money for a horse doesn’t necessarily mean they will run well but 2-ESCOVEDO brought $250k at auction earlier this year. She races for the top barn and they have a 29% win average with their first-time starters. Her drills haven’t impressed but they are sufficient. 5-NOTIPTONI finished in the money in three of her four starts. She owns decent early speed and returns to meeting fillies after taking on the boys in last. But she has been one of those that seems to fade late. Needs to turn that trend around.

Nine-year-old 9-SAILING SOLO drops to the lowest level of his career. This nine-time winner, from 25 starts, is likely to be sent right to the lead. He finished second in both races this year. Might last on the lead in this very tough race. 5-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY is another dropper. His recent races haven’t been all that sharp but he can close quickly and the presence of top choice in the race will ensure a fast pace. 2-COLOSSEO just won at this level. He was on the lead for much of the race but has been as good when coming from out of it.

11-PADDY’S HOUSE isn’t a strong choice but he was claimed from last by a barn that wins with a high percentage of their first-time claims and today he’ll utilize the services of the leading rider. Can win at a square price. 4-BUMPERDOO will be meeting his easiest field ever. However, he hasn’t raced in over a year. But the few works he had on this comeback trail have been strong and his barn does well with runners coming off long layoffs. 7-RIVZONAROLL could be the best of the speed. He’s been running out of gas late in his recent races but he hasn’t been in this easy since September. At this level he might not get caught. 

This race appears to have an abundance of runners that like to race on or near the front end but none appear to hold a huge advantage in the speed department. So, the front end could be a busy place. My thinking is that 7-AIN’T NO OTHER will be racing well off the early lead but will turn on the afterburners when they turn for home. Her barn does well with turnback runners. This one could fly by them all. 11-W W BEST OF TIMES could display the best sustained speed. However, she might have to expend too much energy getting to the lead from the 11 hole. But the cut back in distance should surely help. Like the way 1-IRISH SPARK has been improving. She’s making her first start on turf but see no reason why she shouldn’t handle the surface and runners from her barn do fairly well on the lawn.