Handicapper Tips & Picks

Trainer C. Block will send out a solid pair in this spot: #7 EXECUTOR has the edge with the turf experience and BTL debut after missing the break (VSLOG) and showed a strong MOVE and visuals to suggest he can IMPROVE; #4 TAUNTING should benefit from the debut 18-days ago with TROUBLE_S also making a COVER MOVE behind the open length winner, Baby Boat and continued to GALLOP+ after the wire.

Trainer T. Padilla sent out a very live runner on Sunday in Chasentheone and could have very similar in this spot with #8 BUZZSAW. They have every license to IMPROVE off their debut last month at CBY off the trip/TACTIC- showing run especially late with a strong CLOSE and based on the visuals appears to hold surface versatility.

M. Boyce will also send out a pair (IL-bred pair) in this race with some positive changes: #1 FRONTIER MARSHAL debuted in the 9/15 common race showing run after the SLOG making a WIDE MOVE and should benefit from today’s STRETCH out in distance; #6 RUMBING picks up the blinkers with the move to turf along with a rider change to A. Centeno (positive ROI $27% win, 77% ITM) with the majority of success for the pairing on the main track. Previous rider O. Hernandez sticks with #3 ROYAL BRO following the B place effort behind the Boyce trained Journey last month.

#4 CUTLASS KING trained here locally before showing up at KYD to make their debut, a rare move for the A. Hernandez barn sending out only 2 runners there since 2020. That could suggest intent and perhaps favorable with the work since and picking up C. Emigh for this second start. 

This is a very odd race shape with the lack of E/EP type runners changes the Plot position for others in this field. That includes ML favorable, #5 MILLARD’S SMILE one that has constantly taken up a Q4 Square role moves into the early contention naturally for this race. #4 DEVIL VISION also finds a Plot position change though perhaps more consistent with his recent races showing tactical speed with the class drop in their most recent starts. The intent appears in play returning on the quick turnaround and reuniting with E. Gallardo from a less than ideal TACTIC- ride last week.

With the runners taken out of their runstyle and likely to see #3 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS pick up the chase with stretch out #6 CHRISTMAS PRESENT naturally showing early speed, that assists the off the pace types with #2 IZEONDEC looking for back-to-back wins under A. Santos as well as the return of #7 IMPULSIVENESS one that pulled off the 11-1 deep closing win here going back to opening weekend. 

A competitive turf sprint with very few “tosses” in this group and a solid projected favorite in #7 YO DAWG returning to the turf. They stayed in the race 11-days ago on the main track as well as the 8/29 event both starts WEATHER impacted racing in the rain over poor track conditions and GATE/TROUBLES+ impacting their break. Perhaps that being the knock when paired with a short price in this contentious event.

#4 CYCLONE ATTACK projected to move up with the class drop racing into shape and from the competitive stakes race earlier this season from the layoff. They return in a second start in for the claiming tag and upgraded with today’s race shape back to Q1, the position of their state bred allowance win back in May.

#6 PINBALLER was given a longshot look two weeks ago returning to the turf and also added front wraps. He has some upside from that trip and ground loss making a WIDE MOVE, against the profile. #2 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL also compromised X_BIAS returning from the layoff last month in that common race. The change in post is noted for #8 GRAND HIDEWAY as trip comes back into play and benefit from the cozy inside stalking trip from the rail/inside in the races this season.

#1 RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM also presents some upside making anis MOVE X_FLOW in the August higher level claiming event, his first start against winners. With that said, he will be required to step up in this spot, a rise in par from his previous races while in maiden company and required to run back to that lone speed figure from December 2022, the only number on par for this race and competitive with this group. 

#7 KAELY’S SISTER was unable to get by #1 PURR SEA (and together with #6 BEEHIVE for the minors) last month under similar conditions though will look to turn the tables with a different draw and race dynamic as her L. Rivelli stablemate, #3 WILMA MANKILLER will look to make the lead under Baird for a contentious (Fire) early pace. This will also be the second start of the form cycle for KAELY’S SISTER one that might have required a break after stringing 4 straight wins and improving figures along with posting B+ OptixGRADES in those wins. She is valid as a prime contender off those efforts and with the value as she does not project to be as short on the board today.

#2 BROKEN HEARTS BAY also fits this condition returning to Hawthorne in her second start of the cycle following the BLANKET finish last month. She has shown some gate issues this season, something to keep in mind as far as value and with D/ Cohen picking up the mount with A. Centeno sticking with BEEHIVE – D. Cohen has ridden well here this season, however, has been winless since 9/19 and come up short with favorites along the way. 

The lower SpeedRate moves up runners with early speed and #2 MISS MIKOS the most “obvious” in that role. She will make her second start against winner and off the layoff looking to improve off the place finish last month. She had a PERFECT trip though could have been short giving up recency off the two month break and mentally requiring the start as she was restless in the GATE.

The dynamic should suit #5 SAY CHEESE a solid race mare that should hold value in this field. She comes into this race with current form in this third start back off the layoff.  Some intent could be in play returning to Hawthorne where she has been able to win in the past and under similar par/allowance conditions to today’s event.

The complexion of this race could require #6 DEVIL to track closer to the pace once again and while capable in that dynamic, she does appear to prefer to rate and make one turn, at least keying off her wins, that appears to be her trip. #8 SECRET OPERATION also tends to fall into that same stalk-and-pounce trip though given respect here again and upgraded from the 9/19 start making a WIDE MOVE racing X_BIAS on a day that favored inside speed. 

The analysis starts with #2 ESCOVEDO as she projects to be favored first out for L. Rivelli. She comes into this race with steady works as of late though a noted late start for this debut. She worked 10 flat back at the March sale and recorded a couple of local works here in the spring and then a gap in that published series from early April until picking back up in the beginning of August.  #8 LADY ELISE brings in a consistent work tab topped off with a bullet half mile move from the gate on 9/26 to suggest she is race ready. That could come with further intent late in the meet and as an IL-bred looking to catch the right group as well as pick up the statebred bonus.

In terms of the runners with experience, #7 CAVALLA as a new face on this circuit is the most intriguing of the group. She will make some subtle changes along with the circuit from the surface to distance (positive shortening up) and move to an outer post for the first time in this fourth start. The 9/5 race winner, Pure Majestic is so far the only horse to have run back from that race though flattered with another front running win taking the Selima Stakes at LRL on 9/28.

In recent years, trainer E. Lopez is still looking for the first win with a debut runner though with 37% in the money it could just be a matter of time. #1 BLACK GINGER has a strong published time back on 8/8 in the half mile drill and strong front end rider in C. Emigh to show speed from the rail. 

Another competitive turf race, though in this case some knocks can be made on the projected favorites looking at the Plot as a downgrade for #9 SAILING SOLO and giving up recency (as well as Plot Average-) for #6 TEMPER TANTRUM returning from the layoff and significant class drop to look elsewhere.

TEMPER TANTRUM will be joined by stablemate #8 BANDIT SWANSON with recency edge along with improvement this season from the layoff and from the BTL effort (along with front wrap removal) on 9/8. Looking at the Plot he fits today’s race shape and could be a positive with the class rise and back class to support another move forward.

T. Young will also be represented by a pair with #2 COLOSSEO claimed off the 9/15 win and back under similar conditions today looking to pair up results with O. Mojica back aboard. #1 RIVER REDEMPTION also from that common race and upgraded making a CLOSE against the dynamic (VS early/late) in the show finish.

Looking at the Plot, the value sits with #7 REJECTION HURTS over #5 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY the two showing up with a similar Plot and trip upgrade (B-) wheeling back in a week from the CBY event. Value should also be considered for #4 WICKED SURPRISE one that was able to sneak away with LONE trips back in August and unlikely to find that scenario with COLOSSEO and SAILING SOLO in this field. Long shot #3 LAND MARK DEAL follows an “every other” pattern to suggest a move forward in this part of his form cycle and on his best day he fits in with the main contenders in this field. 

The effort two back in August fits on par for #7 RIVZONAROLL and looking at the Plot should be the “speed of the speed” – Q1 close to the ParLine in thus field. Like many of the Q1 in this race the lack of finishing ability (Circle) is present and will require that top effort to clear. #8 SOUPER FORTUNE is the lone Q1 Square and tough to ignore on that alone to fit today’s race shape. #9 SLAVA UKRAINI also part of that Q1 despite the change in distance and with the fitness from the longer races along with the outside draw could find a positive tracking trip and showed last week (9/26) he makes for a strong fit at this conditional claiming level.

The Fire Contention should assist #4 BUMPERDOO looking at he Plot (ABOVE) and ABOVE+ on Class/Speed, though the main question is Form giving up a lot of recency returning from the 384-day layoff for this race. #1 FLEET OF HOOF has the edge on recency coming from PRM into this spot in the third start back off the layoff though has shown some gate issues (SLOG) and should be considered on value with this race shape and the rail draw. #2 MON AMI FUZZIE also has the SLOG pattern though some buried local form this season including a sneaky good B- OptixGRADE effort at this level back on 8/4 – he finds a similar Plot position and shape to BUMPERDOO in this field as far as trip.

The pace/trip extends to assist #10 MKAR THE FAST one that should be overlooked coming into this event for the connection though brings a very positive OptixGRADE progression in this current form cycle as shown in the Past 3 Runlines of OptixGRID. Keying off their Plot position and shape A. Santos should be able to get the jump and first run on #11 PADDY’S HOUSE one that has been consistent with the C+ races this season something that requires some value overall and with his runstyle whereas both #3 PERFECT WAGER and #6 IMPERIAL MOMENT “plot” similar and should be longer odds compared to PADDY’S HOUSE and even #12 RUNWAY READY – a deeper Q4 closer here.  

The two H. Robertson runners have a look in this field leading with the experience edge from #6 CUPID’S EXPRESSION landing here for her second start. Physically she has some size to her and part of that played a role with the inside/SAVED trip and never looked comfortable in running. Despite some adversity in running, she finished a solid show earning a B- and the surface change should not be an issue presenting physical versatility. #3 PURE HICKORY will make a very belated debut and racing here as the lone four-year-old in the field. She has a long steady work tab and timing  becomes “ready or not” at this point. She picks up a strong rider in I. Hernandez coming off a strong week of TACTIC+ trips to work out wins. The barn does have a debuting 4yo filly winner over this turf course sprinting called Fudge Brownie back in 2022. 

Of the more “experienced” runners in this group, #7 AIN’T NO OTHER finds the change to this circuit and ain’t no reason she should not be able to transfer her form under today’s conditions. With that said, she really has not shown much improvement since her debut back in March and number wise fits in line with the runners returning from the 9/1 and 9/12 common races all with figures similar to one another (value the main separator of those runners) and have shown off their form and efforts this season who they are as the types that should run their race once again here.