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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu October 3rd, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Cutlass King 3 Royal Bro 4 Taunting

Kick off the day with juvenile turf runners as I'll look to 2-CUTLASS KING to open things up. Cutlass King debuted at Kentucky Downs and was able to split the field in that spot. He finds things a bit easier in here as he figures to rate and rally late. 3-ROYAL BRO will take action off a good debut as he rated a bit closer early and ran on in the lane. He stretches out off that performance and could show a bit more speed in this spot. 4-TAUNTING chased on the dirt in his debut and was a good second to a solid winner in Baby Boat. With the shift to grass and stretch in distance he's another that could show a bit more early speed.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Devil Vision 6 Christmas Present 5 Millard's Smile

There's not much pace in here which could lead to a slower pace where 4-DEVIL VISION may inherit the lead. He ran well in recent starts in Minnesota and should be a factor throughout. 6- CHRISTMAS PRESENT is another that can show some speed on the stretch in distance as he has run well over this surface throughout his career. Let's see if he can threaten at a bit of a price. 5-MILLARD'S SMILE will take action in here off a string a recent solid races. He's another that likes this Hawthorne strip but is going to need some pace to chase.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Yo Dawg 8 Grand Hideaway 1 Righteous Freedom

A few class droppers in here but the horse that figures most is 7-YO DAWG as he looks to get back to the grass. With his recent form it is surprising to see he has yet to win on turf but he has found the board in 8 of 9 on the grass and should be sitting on a winning performance today. 8-GRAND HIDEAWAY was a good winner in his last as he settled closer early and drew clear late. If he can get a similar trip here he may look to get the jump on Yo Dawg into the lane. 1-RIGHTEOUS FREEDOM has sprinted in his last couple of starts, including a maiden breaker two back. He figures to rate back a bit early but should benefit from the rail trip today.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Kaely's Sister 6 Beehive 2 Broken Hearts Bay

Normally I would have picked Purr Sea in this spot but I was really surprised she wasn't in the stakes race on Sunday instead of this race. Going to look elsewhere and give the nod to 7-KAELY'S SISTER as she has had a fine year, finding the board in all six races since her return off the layoff. From the outside she should be able to dictate her position early and will likely contend every step of he way. 6-BEEHIVE is another with speed who has also been very good at Hawthorne as she has never been worse than second in nine Hawthorne starts. Centeno has been aboard in the last eight and returns in the saddle today. 2-BROKEN HEARTS BAY was an allowance winner here back in April and just missed in her last start off the layoff at Prairie Meadows. She will be hoping for a contested pace to chase as she figures to come running in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Devil 3 Twas Lola 2 Miss Mikos

A solid allowance field as another Boyce runner is in with a shot. This time it's 6-DEVIL as she comes off a fine win in her last where she rated and rallied in the lane. That was against state-bred company and she shifts to face open runners in here. She does fit though and could easily repeat that performance. 3-TWAS LOLA ran a big race in her last as she chased in that spot and ran on late. She makes her second start back off the rest and a repeat of that performance will put her right there once again. 2-MISS MIKOS has some speed as she has been sharp in her last couple as well. She was second as the favorite behind Devil in her last but may be assertive and look to head for the top in this spot.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Notiptoni 8 Lady Elise 2 Escovedo

A good field of juvenile runners in this spot as I'll go to the experience of 5-NOTIPTONI today. She has run well in all four starts and was a good third when facing the boys in her last. With the move back to the girls today, she looks to be sitting on a big race. 8-LADY ELISE debuts as she has worked very well coming into here. The breeding and works both suggest that we will see speed from her at the start as I like the outside draw in this debut. 2-ESCOVEDO debuts for Rivelli with a decent work pattern as I'll be curious to see what type of early action she takes. Expect some early speed and blinkers for the first start.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
9 Sailing Solo 2 Colosseo 5 Monsteronthemidway

This is a really solid field for this level as I'll be curious to see what the pace scenario is. With some of the speed to the inside, I wonder if 9-SAILING SOLO chooses to rate a bit and then move at the top of the lane. He has always been a game racehorse and has never missed the board at the mile distance. 2-COLOSSEO inherited the lead in his last and battled to the victory in a race he was claimed out of. In here I expect he settles off the pace a bit but I like that Mojica takes the return ride. 5-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY will be hoping there are numerous runners showing some speed in here as he will likely settle back early and make one run late. He does take the class drop today but may still provide some value.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Ain't No Other 6 Cupid's Obsession 4 Isabella's Beauty

On grass, 7-AIN'T NO OTHER is going to be quite tough as she gets some class relief with the move to Hawthorne from recent starts in Indiana. Look for her to settle a bit off the early pace and come running in the lane. 6-CUPID'S OBSESSION ran well on the dirt in her debut as she chased and ran on late. I expect she rates close early in here and is a factor throughout. 4-ISABELLA'S BEAUTY is likely to show speed in here as I figure she is going to try to clear. If she can shake loose early she could hang around late.