Handicapper Tips & Picks

The class drop along with current form makes #3 THREEFIFTYSEVEN a logical favorite and contender in tis race. He has held his form and figures in this current cycle and should appreciate the slight STRETCH in distance coming back from the recent shorter sprint events. THREEFIFTYSEVEN can also stalk and pounce and should have some pace to target with the complexion of the field #2 HURTS SO BAD and #8 CAN MAN DO looking to contest the early pace with some others such as #4 MAGNET AND STEEL keeping things honest.

That contentious pace should also assist #7 UNCAPTURED PULSE one that comes into this race with the recent pair of place finishes though could still present value under the radar off the recent figures. He turned in a competitive B- OptixGRADE back on 8/8 projected to IMPROVE off the 8/29 effort before taking KICKBACK in the place finish on 9/5. Looking at the OptixPLOT he shows a similar “trip” to #5 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR with a Larger Square of the two and based on the ML projected longer odds. That first run could be the key on #6 BAREFOOTBOTTLEGGER one that should be closing late and not out of it for a top spot though will make for the drama with his late run.

#1 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR is a bit of a wild card and one to get creative with at the right price and visuals. The change in distance (ONE_TURN) could prove to be a positive for a runner that does have a pattern of losing ground late and comes into this race with form lacking any “Red” in the OptixNOTES at this level. 

Things will probably not get much easier for #7 DEAL’EM AND WEEP than they will today and projects to be a heavy, heavy favorite in this spot as she appears to stand out on paper.

Looking to get creative underneath: #7 COLLIE WRAYS KITTY presented physically TURF and while she did move up with the surface switch class was a different hurdle in the races here this season. She is still in tough, however does move out from open company and picking up a rider change to I. Hernandez could see her move up naturally in this field. Some of those same angles apply to #1 WAHIDA OF MARDEN one that was pointed to the turf from the connections and figures the DROP to statebred along with the STRETCH out in distance from the recent sprints.  

Could see a pair of back-to-back heavy favorites with #9 SKYLANE showing up with the change in class and in this group where his current figures stand out (Green) over today’s rivals. He also finds himself ABOVE+ on Plot and Class; the horse to beat.

Perhaps the biggest threat comes from M. Perez leading with #1 MONEY AGENT one that will make his third start of the cycle and a flow upgrade as part of a Very Fast early pace in the two recent starts. He shows a positive form cycle progression both on figures and OptixGRADES and could land a further positive intent with the rider change as A. Centeno takes over. #2 DRAFTSMAN Is not as forward on figures though presents upside in his own right. He has show progression with the races coming back off the layoff was in hand (NO_PUSH) after breaking SLOG back on 8/25 and requires a STRETCH from the sprint distance two weeks ago.

#8 MY LAST ESCAPADE is worth another mention just as he was three weeks ago projecting to move up on the class DROP and did just that. U. Lopez gave a great ride (TACTIC+) considering the Very Fast early pace and took a tough beat while still recording the B OptixGRADE and another improved figures in the process. He is one to watch as prior to the reaching the gate he started to get WARM and WASTED a lot of energy something to monitor here. 

Trainer S. Becker is loaded in this race with volume and quality leading with the big dog #2 W W HOTSHOT. They appear fresh and pointed to this stakes event from the 54-day freshening and second stakes win this season back with A. Bendezu the win rider from the Work All Week earner this meet. His runstyle, class and consistent figures make him the horse to beat and leading of that team of runners.

Work All Week stakes runner-up #6 RICHIESONAROLL will look to turn the tables here and intent all inn play returning from the 52-day freshening as well as shipping in E. Esquivel to ride here today. They will look for a similar stalk-and-pounce trip and a more than capable contender as one that is accomplished with intent here. 

#6 BEST KISS YET fits today’s race and brings in progressive form, figures and class in her current cycle out of the races in KY. She will find the cut back in distance from the two recent ELP allowance events and fits sprinting keying off the turf sprint back in April at KEE with the TROUBLE_S and TRAFFIC trip playing a bigger role in the outcome than the shorter distance with the 77 figure earned a number that stacks up with today’s par and group of rivals.

L. Roussel has a pair in this race and again could be looking for the main track with #5 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE while #11 GRACELEADSUSHOME is at hold on the grass and with form over this course and sprint distance. She recorded a B OptixGRADE, a “winning” effort for the level back in July and compromised with the trip getting a SHUFFLE while making a middle MOVE and strong GALLOP+ back in August. She returns with the freshening since that event and retaining O. Mojica along with a race shape that should assist her off-the-pace runstyle looking at today’s OptixPLOT with the higher Sun contention most of the field in Quad I (or to the left of the y-axis with the E/EP runstyle) to assist her late run as a Large Q4 Square.

While there is the “Sun” contention as a hurdle for the front runners, #3 MORE THAN A DIVA should present price compensation flying under the radar and looking at the Standard Plot (current form) can be upgraded (ABOVE+) of that first flight. In terms of form cycle, she might have “peaked” after the 8/18 win playing a role in the regression last month and in terms of the surface switch, she has back class, form and figures sprinting on the turf going back to her juvenile/sophomore season.

#4 GRAYTANA is worth a mention as another Q1 Square and arguably a better draw than #12 CLOEY ATTACK where as both come into this race with current form and figures on par though in terms of class find themselves with the AVERAGE+ rating in this field that presents a challenge on the win end. 

#8 BABY BOAT looks to hold the edge in this group of lightly raced juveniles searching for a second career start. He takes on winners following a dominant (B+) debut three weeks ago with a strong number that fits with today’s group and should be one they can come back to at least repeat if not build upon.

Centeno was aboard BABY BOAT in that debut though remains with #7 INDYVILLE for M. Boyce, as one of two for that outfit with stablemate #3 TAKEITAWAY also showing up here off his August MSW win. INDYVILLE earned a strong figure pulling off the upset in that 8/11 MSW race, a competitive field and productive race with three next out winners to validate the performance. He has been given time since to reset and look to repeat something that will be required to pair up wins here.

#4 DREAM GOLD comes into this race softer on recorded figures though has been given two months since his maiden win and improved effort back in April to suggest he could hold another move forward and with the connections along with “softer” numbers should hold value as a contrast to the other two contenders. 

#7 TOUGH LITTLE NUT has held his own against some hard knocking older horses this season (including former stablemate Eye On Ry recent allowance winner at Del Mar) and under similar conditions. His form/figures stacks up in this stakes event coming back this season including both the FG and KEE allowance races progressive for following his competitive juvenile season.

#8 TELESCOPIC comes into this race off a MSW win last out at KY Downs and could be dismissed here overall and with others coming in off recent maiden victories. TELESCOPIC has the foundation from his maiden series of races and sneaky form along with way going back to “trips” at Turfway, a COLD barn this spring/summer for the three TURF starts going longer and in against older runners for those recent races including the win last month.

In terms of the 3-1 morning line favorite, #11 CRYSTAL QUEST he fits this race overall though does not hold any strong edge to support a shorter number in this competitive field. That could also extend to #3 ROCK’N A HALO when looking at the Plot, though some of that Plot position/shape is impacted by the SLOG/TACTIC- in the Secretariat (G2) last out when in hand from off the pace unable to give a full account on the day. Finding his stronger efforts on the grass, he fits here and with the edge overall from stablemate #1 HIGGINS BOAT one that at the least should be a pace presence with the rail draw under J. Rocco though not along in that role with #12 BAXLEY and #13 REALIGNMENT should they find their way into this race.

Tough to assess the intent and form for #6 T’CHALLA fresh off the plane and quick landing in this race stateside for N. Drysdale following a place effort just 24-days ago overseas. While euro runners can often hold an edge this one could be finding a step up in class, if not a lateral move something that should be considered on value paired with a necessary visual assessment. 

#1 GASOLINE caught a strong group on the turf last month his grass debut and the form of that 9/1 race has held up with the horses coming back improving figures, hitting the board and showing one next out winner. The connections claimed him for a higher $100k tag back in May and picked up some of that investment with the 7/17 allowance win at HS Indy. His overall form and runstyle fits today’s race and less concerning in for the $50k tag here something that could signal a claim or open up starter allowance races into the winter for the connections.

The ever consistent #4 READTHECLIFFNOTES is respected here once again and appears intent with the rider change though still could require the combination of a top effort along with the right trip to get the win and photo for the first time this year and something to consider on value with the ML assignment. That follows #7 ARDENWOOD one that is tough to argue his not capable pairing wins at this level this season, though did benefit from favorable/PERFECT trips.

#2 CODE RUNNER might not be the true “longshot” the odds suggest for this race. He will take the rise in class coming off the win last month, though has run competitive races under similar par/purse to today’s event and shown on the Plot as a Large Square, tough to dismiss. 

#4 CAROOM should find the change in circuit the right move providing a required DROP and belated move to the claiming level to suggest they are expecting a win and also a claim. He comes in with consistent form and figures with the ABOVE+ rating on Speed and Class compared with the others in this field looking at the OptixEQ data. He RunStyle does not hold a strong edge though certainly not a “bad” position as a Large Q2 Square with the “Fire” Contention rating.

The lower SpeedRate does hold a Plot upgrade to both #9 TIME MUSE and #10 TEMPLE FOOL as Quad I Squares in today’s field and worth keeping in the mix as an alternative to the favorite. #5 BIG ELM also upgraded off his most recent BTL effort though must step up in the speed figure department and requires some price compensation with the habit of SLOG/TROUBLE_S throughout his career and played a role in the 9/18 outcome.

Number wise #6 T LAW has numbers in line with CAROOM on his best day and given another look in this spot as he returns to the turf and the connections wheeling right back expected for the grass here. The surface switch and move to the claiming level assisted #7 I O FEDRO one that will take on winners for the first time though a progressive sophomore for top connections would be no surprise to pair wins here. 

Looking at the Surface/Distance Plot, there is a scenario for #10 APRIL’S GEM to get out in front and take this field gate to wire as a Square clear and above the ParLine. Things change mixing in the Standard Plot (current form) that includes runners coming in from dirt races and perhaps like we saw with the races last week providing an alternative should the race come off the turf, though given the projected weather forecast (even with light rain Friday am) is likely to remain on the turf.

The race dynamic along with a return to the turf could be the right combination for #8 DESSERT FIRST to step back up today to a competitive effort looking for the first win this season. He has turned in competitive races along the way including the B OptixGRADE back in April and starting off this form cycle when the races were taken off-the-turf in August with a change in dynamic given the four horse field.

A level of early contention, bunching up and “Circles” could assist #1 KINGSBURY DREAM one that is “buried” on the Plot as well as her races this season and could come in with intent given the rider change and Baird taking over. KINGSBURY DREAM turned in a competitive race under similar conditions back on 8/25 making a CLOSE for show into a Slow early pace, an upgrade showing run against the dynamic. #9 PASTA SALAD RHONDA also brings in a solid late kick though has had the opposite race shape above to close into a Very Fast early pace in her two more recent starts.

#5 LOTTA ROSES also comes in with some buried form and back to her preferred surface on the grass. She had an EX – EXCUSE in the 8/25 common race as well as two weeks ago with the surface switch, something that benefit #2 SILKY WARRIOR presenting value on the day and not out of it once again here.   

Kicking off a tremendous card with a competitive field to open the day. Not a ton of pace in this race which should help the chances of 4-MAGNET AND STEEL as he makes his first Hawthorne start. Trainer Coty Rosin has had a tremendous meet as this one drops slightly in class in its second start off the claim for the new connections. If he is able to make the top in here, he is likely to never look back. 5-MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR is another returning from Minnesota as he has run well against better over this Hawthorne strip in the past. He will need a little pace to chase but has the most consistent figures of the field. 3-THREEFIFTYSEVEN takes the drop off facing a tough Starter field on the grass in his last. He ran a really nice race in victory on the dirt two back as a similar stalking trip to that performance should put him right there once again.

Chris Block runners on the Hawthorne turf is about all you need to know as everything seems to run huge. In here he sends out 7-DEAL'EM AND WEEP as she has been knocking on the door while facing better in her four career starts. With the move back to state-bred company today, she figures to rate close early and take over in the lane. 1-WAHIDA OF MARDAN showed speed around two turns on the grass in her debut and that may be the way to go once again. With the inside draw and a firm course, if she can clear and catch a breather on the backside she could hang around late. 3-I DID THE MATH makes her second career start on turf as she has run well in her last four starts. Poor breaks have been the issue for her lately but if she can get away in good order, Cohen should have her running in the lane.

This should be an interesting race as I'm expecting a decent amount of early pace for horses to close into. If that's the case, 9-SKYLANE will be very tough as he drops for this spot but has run well all year, hitting the board in 9 of 12 starts. The outside draw shouldn't be a concern as he should be able to tuck in early. With the long stretch and pace coming back, I expect he waits until the lane to make his move. 3-KIRILL THE THRILL should be in a good stalking spot early as he makes his first Hawthorne start. I like the race he ran on September 19 as he showed some late kick at seven furlongs. He draws well and picks up Cohen today. 6-CRUZIN N CURSIN could be picking up the pieces late as he has run improved races since stretching out. If allowed to settle early like he did in his start two back, he should be plucking off tiring runners in the lane.

Named for one of my favorite all-time Illinois-bred sprinters in River Bear, the 6 1/2 furlong distance of this race could be a big factor. With multiple horses likely to show speed, the potential for 6-RICHIESONAROLL to rate and rally in the lane could be crucial with the added 16th for this race. He's had a solid season and picks up Esquivel in the saddle and gets 8 lbs. from the favorite. 2-W W HOTSHOT is the one to beat as he carries the highweight of 125lbs. for this race. He has good tactical speed, winning three of four starts on the year. I will be curious to see what the pace scenario is in here as two of the others likely to supply some early speed are also trained by Becker. 4-TAHOE RUN has been at his best at Hawthorne, posting all three career victories over this track as well as four runner-up efforts. He's another that could likely benefit from some early pace to chase as he gets Mojica back aboard, who rode him to victory in his start last out.

Pace makes the race and I feel there's a good amount of early pace in this spot. With the long run down the backside, 11-GRACELEADSUSHOME should be able to tuck in before the turn and look to rally in the lane. She has been sharp since her switch to turf as Mojica has ridden in the last couple. Let's see if she can work out a trip today. 10-GO LEE ANN GO comes in from Canterbury for this start as she shortens up to the sprint today. She picks up Loveberry in the saddle for a barn that has had a lot of success in their Hawthorne starts. 6-BEST KISS YET also shortens back up in distance off a pair of good turf tries at Ellis. She did sprint on the turf at Keeneland in the spring, chasing a tough allowance field into the lane as Cohen takes the call in here.

A really solid field of Juvenile allowance runners to go 5 1/2 furlongs with a mix of males and females. 8-BABY BOAT was impressive on debut as he stalked the early pace before taking over in the lane and drawing away. He looked to have much more left in the tank and appears to find more than enough pace to close into in here. 2-LIT MISS HAT TRICK has run a pair of fine races to open her career, finishing a good second to talented Shezafunkydrummer in her first out before grabbing a win on July 11. She's been away since that start but has worked well toward her return and gets a favorable inside draw in here. 7-INDYVILLE was impressive in his debut as he grabbed the lead immediately and never looked back. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers from that race both came back to win their next start out as he comes in off a sharp half mile work for today's race.

We have a pair of great races sandwiching the stakes event as this is another extremely competitive field. I have the soft spot for 4-READTHECLIFFNOTES but her is as honest as they come. A poor start really compromised him in his last but he still rallied to get into the mix late. If he gets away in good order here, he should be in a perfect position early as the majority of the pace is on the outside. 5-C F V BULLET made a strong middle move in his last but it may have come too early as he flattened out late in that spot. In here, if he can relax through the opening half, he should be able to get the jump on the late closers. 7-ARDANWOOD has a couple of victories over the track on the meet and has been an every other race type of horse in his last four. That pattern would have him sitting on a big performance today as he comes in fresh.

We close out the Sunday card with back to back turf events as there appears to be a standout in here. That horse is 4-CAROOM as he comes in off a string of allowance tests in Kentucky. Loveberry has been aboard in the past and has had success as Caroom figures to settle early and charge in the stretch. 7-I O FEDRO should be able to rate close to the pace as he gets back on the grass today. He was a fine winner on the dirt in his last as the race progression has been solid. 5-BIG ELM comes in from Mountaineer for this start as he has been right there in his last couple. The mile distance seems to suit as we will see if he gets into the race a bit earlier today.

Turf experience is the key for me in this spot as many of those likely to take action have spent the majority of their careers on the dirt. 9-PASTA SALAD THONDA has been on the grass, finding the board in 5 of 9 turf starts. She's going to need some pace to chase but that should be provided from a duo shifting from dirt to turf. That duo is 3-IZZY'S MONSTER and 11-MO SMOKING as both duked it out in the Starter series, trading punches throughout. They should both be forwardly placed and could potentially run 1-2 throughout if no others go.

3-THREEFIFTYSEVEN seems most likely. He showed little on turf in last but won his previous start by daylight while meeting better rivals. Drops because it’s the end of the meet. He should be tough. 5-MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR hasn’t been in the best of form lately but he’s another dropping to the lowest level of his career. He’s been racing in the Great White North (Minnesota haha) but he did run here in the spring and he had a win versus better claimers. Guessing he’ll wake up. 6-BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER can close well when there’s a fast pace up front and this race should have pace aplenty.

7-DEAL’EM AND WEEP looks like a “single” in your horizontal wagers. She’s had three good turf races against open company and today she’ll be meeting Illinois breds for the first time. Her speed figures tower over those of her rivals. Seems like a done deal. 1-WAHIDA OF MARDEN has had three turf races and she wasn’t really competitive in any of them but her last was probably her best yet and 3-I DID THE MATH didn’t show much in her lone turf start but she is in relatively good form and she tends to finish well in her races. Plus, all her previous turf races were against open company and she will be meeting Illinois breds today.

9-SKYLANE drops. He’s had seven races here and finished in the money in six of them and all those races were against better. This could finally be the spot for this versatile runner. 6-CRUZIN AND CURSIN could be the best of the rest. He’s one of the few in here that has been able to display a closing move. He finished second in his first start around two turns. He beat only one in last but made a big middle move before flattening out. Better timing could get him close late. 8-MY LAST ESCAPADE improved with every race. Loved the tenacity he showed in his most recent race. He fought for the lead throughout and was still able to hold on for second, beaten only a neck. Might outlast all today.

2-W W HOTSHOT looks awfully tough. This classy runner has been just consistently good throughout his career. He finished second in his most recent race but did have a troubled trip. He won his first three starts of the year, including the local Work All Week Handicap. Lifetime, he has scored in 13 of 29 races while finishing in the money another times. Might not be a standout in this tough field but anyone that beats him will have to run the best race of their life. 6-RICHIESONAROLL finished second to top pick in the Work All Week. While “Hotshot” will have to fend off the other front runners, this gelding will set sail late. Has a chance to pass everybody. 4-TAHOE RUN is more versatile than most. Doubt if he’ll try for the lead, despite good speed, but he is probably more effective when coming from off the pace.

Things could set up pretty well for the closing move of 11-GRACELEADSUSHOME. On the other hand, she’s had two races at the distance and faced very fact early paces but still couldn’t get the job done. The outside post doesn’t help. But still think she’ll finish fastest of all. 6-BEST KISS YET turns back in distance. She finished far back in her lone turf sprint, in fact all of her sprints except for her maiden win, but she was racing on a tougher circuit. Guessing she’ll be a major player in this race. Don’t really see dominating speed in this race but expect many to try for the early lead. 4-GRAYTANA might be the quickest and she is consistently in the hunt.

8-BABY BOAT was a visibly impressive debut winner. He was able to stalk the pace early, take the lead as he pleased, and drew off to a six-length victory. Loses his rider to the horse that appears to be his main competition but gets the top jock as a replacement. Has a good chance to repeat. 7-INDYVILLE, every bit as impressive as top choice, won just as easily. He fought for the early lead in his lone race but drew off quickly. Making the win even more impressive is that at least two of the other runners coming out of that race won their next starts. He looks like he could be the quickest from the gate. Might wire them again. 3-TAKEITAWAY doesn’t appear to be quite as quick as stablemate Indyville but he’s another with a good turn of early foot and another that showed tenacity in his maiden win. Three works since his win, the last very fast, will have kept him at the top of his game.

 Some runners take their time figuring it all out; some are good ad first asking. 9-OSCAR SEASON appears to be one of the latter. He’s had only one race but he beat a good group of maidens at Kentucky Downs, still drawing off at the end on that one mile race. The nine furlongs of this event seems to be within his reach. Might surprise. 11-CRYSTAL QUEST has had some very good races against very tough company. He’s already a stakes winner and he has been stakes placed twice. Expect him to come running late. 6-T’CHALLA invades from Great Britain. He liked showing speed in his races across the pond but British speed and American speed are two different things. We’ll see how well he adjusts. 

This is always a tough condition and most of the runners are eligible to win this. But think 1-GASOLINE could hold a slight edge. I could toss out his last, he was making his turf debut. He did beat a group similar to this in his previous start in Indiana. He finished third in a Grade 3 event earlier this year. Had a sharp drill since last turf start. Could be ready for these. 7-ARDENWOOD should never be too far off the pace. He won two of his last four at this level. He was beaten as the favorite in last but has a good shot to make amends today. 4-READTHECLIFFNOTES won only once in the last two years, and it wasn’t this year, but he is as game as the get and he gets a paycheck almost every time out. He owns decent speed but, at this point in his career, he has been more effective coming from out of it.

4-CAROOM looks like the best of these. Late runner’s speed figures tower over those of his rivals. The drop into claimers for the first time should do the trick. 9-TIME MUSE was a little overmatched in his most recent race but he did finish second the two times he ran at this level at Canterbury. At his best he might be able to give top pick a run for the money.1-GLUCKSTADT could be the sleeper. He’s been meeting better since getting claimed by this barn. But he’s dropping back to the level from which he was claimed. Can awaken. 

11-MO SMOKING might be the best of the speed. Few in here have distinguished themselves on the lawn. And she’s no exception. She’s had two turf starts without any success. But she’s bred for the surface, she’s in great form, and she gets a rider who will coax the best from her. 10-APRIL’S GEM, with eight turf wins to her credit, figures prominently. She dominated a similar field two starts back. Might do the same here. 1-KINGSBURY DREAM won only one of her 22 turf races but she finished in the money another 11 times. Would normally expect her to come running late but she’ll have a rider today who loves the front end. We’ll see.