Handicapper Tips & Picks

The class drop along with current form makes #3 THREEFIFTYSEVEN a logical favorite and contender in tis race. He has held his form and figures in this current cycle and should appreciate the slight STRETCH in distance coming back from the recent shorter sprint events. THREEFIFTYSEVEN can also stalk and pounce and should have some pace to target with the complexion of the field #2 HURTS SO BAD and #8 CAN MAN DO looking to contest the early pace with some others such as #4 MAGNET AND STEEL keeping things honest.

That contentious pace should also assist #7 UNCAPTURED PULSE one that comes into this race with the recent pair of place finishes though could still present value under the radar off the recent figures. He turned in a competitive B- OptixGRADE back on 8/8 projected to IMPROVE off the 8/29 effort before taking KICKBACK in the place finish on 9/5. Looking at the OptixPLOT he shows a similar “trip” to #5 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR with a Larger Square of the two and based on the ML projected longer odds. That first run could be the key on #6 BAREFOOTBOTTLEGGER one that should be closing late and not out of it for a top spot though will make for the drama with his late run.

#1 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR is a bit of a wild card and one to get creative with at the right price and visuals. The change in distance (ONE_TURN) could prove to be a positive for a runner that does have a pattern of losing ground late and comes into this race with form lacking any “Red” in the OptixNOTES at this level. 

Things will probably not get much easier for #7 DEAL’EM AND WEEP than they will today and projects to be a heavy, heavy favorite in this spot as she appears to stand out on paper.

Looking to get creative underneath: #7 COLLIE WRAYS KITTY presented physically TURF and while she did move up with the surface switch class was a different hurdle in the races here this season. She is still in tough, however does move out from open company and picking up a rider change to I. Hernandez could see her move up naturally in this field. Some of those same angles apply to #1 WAHIDA OF MARDEN one that was pointed to the turf from the connections and figures the DROP to statebred along with the STRETCH out in distance from the recent sprints.  

Could see a pair of back-to-back heavy favorites with #9 SKYLANE showing up with the change in class and in this group where his current figures stand out (Green) over today’s rivals. He also finds himself ABOVE+ on Plot and Class; the horse to beat.

Perhaps the biggest threat comes from M. Perez leading with #1 MONEY AGENT one that will make his third start of the cycle and a flow upgrade as part of a Very Fast early pace in the two recent starts. He shows a positive form cycle progression both on figures and OptixGRADES and could land a further positive intent with the rider change as A. Centeno takes over. #2 DRAFTSMAN Is not as forward on figures though presents upside in his own right. He has show progression with the races coming back off the layoff was in hand (NO_PUSH) after breaking SLOG back on 8/25 and requires a STRETCH from the sprint distance two weeks ago.

#8 MY LAST ESCAPADE is worth another mention just as he was three weeks ago projecting to move up on the class DROP and did just that. U. Lopez gave a great ride (TACTIC+) considering the Very Fast early pace and took a tough beat while still recording the B OptixGRADE and another improved figures in the process. He is one to watch as prior to the reaching the gate he started to get WARM and WASTED a lot of energy something to monitor here. 

Trainer S. Becker is loaded in this race with volume and quality leading with the big dog #2 W W HOTSHOT. They appear fresh and pointed to this stakes event from the 54-day freshening and second stakes win this season back with A. Bendezu the win rider from the Work All Week earner this meet. His runstyle, class and consistent figures make him the horse to beat and leading of that team of runners.

Work All Week stakes runner-up #6 RICHIESONAROLL will look to turn the tables here and intent all inn play returning from the 52-day freshening as well as shipping in E. Esquivel to ride here today. They will look for a similar stalk-and-pounce trip and a more than capable contender as one that is accomplished with intent here. 

#6 BEST KISS YET fits today’s race and brings in progressive form, figures and class in her current cycle out of the races in KY. She will find the cut back in distance from the two recent ELP allowance events and fits sprinting keying off the turf sprint back in April at KEE with the TROUBLE_S and TRAFFIC trip playing a bigger role in the outcome than the shorter distance with the 77 figure earned a number that stacks up with today’s par and group of rivals.

L. Roussel has a pair in this race and again could be looking for the main track with #5 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE while #11 GRACELEADSUSHOME is at hold on the grass and with form over this course and sprint distance. She recorded a B OptixGRADE, a “winning” effort for the level back in July and compromised with the trip getting a SHUFFLE while making a middle MOVE and strong GALLOP+ back in August. She returns with the freshening since that event and retaining O. Mojica along with a race shape that should assist her off-the-pace runstyle looking at today’s OptixPLOT with the higher Sun contention most of the field in Quad I (or to the left of the y-axis with the E/EP runstyle) to assist her late run as a Large Q4 Square.

While there is the “Sun” contention as a hurdle for the front runners, #3 MORE THAN A DIVA should present price compensation flying under the radar and looking at the Standard Plot (current form) can be upgraded (ABOVE+) of that first flight. In terms of form cycle, she might have “peaked” after the 8/18 win playing a role in the regression last month and in terms of the surface switch, she has back class, form and figures sprinting on the turf going back to her juvenile/sophomore season.

#4 GRAYTANA is worth a mention as another Q1 Square and arguably a better draw than #12 CLOEY ATTACK where as both come into this race with current form and figures on par though in terms of class find themselves with the AVERAGE+ rating in this field that presents a challenge on the win end. 

#8 BABY BOAT looks to hold the edge in this group of lightly raced juveniles searching for a second career start. He takes on winners following a dominant (B+) debut three weeks ago with a strong number that fits with today’s group and should be one they can come back to at least repeat if not build upon.

Centeno was aboard BABY BOAT in that debut though remains with #7 INDYVILLE for M. Boyce, as one of two for that outfit with stablemate #3 TAKEITAWAY also showing up here off his August MSW win. INDYVILLE earned a strong figure pulling off the upset in that 8/11 MSW race, a competitive field and productive race with three next out winners to validate the performance. He has been given time since to reset and look to repeat something that will be required to pair up wins here.

#4 DREAM GOLD comes into this race softer on recorded figures though has been given two months since his maiden win and improved effort back in April to suggest he could hold another move forward and with the connections along with “softer” numbers should hold value as a contrast to the other two contenders. 

#7 TOUGH LITTLE NUT has held his own against some hard knocking older horses this season (including former stablemate Eye On Ry recent allowance winner at Del Mar) and under similar conditions. His form/figures stacks up in this stakes event coming back this season including both the FG and KEE allowance races progressive for following his competitive juvenile season.

#8 TELESCOPIC comes into this race off a MSW win last out at KY Downs and could be dismissed here overall and with others coming in off recent maiden victories. TELESCOPIC has the foundation from his maiden series of races and sneaky form along with way going back to “trips” at Turfway, a COLD barn this spring/summer for the three TURF starts going longer and in against older runners for those recent races including the win last month.

In terms of the 3-1 morning line favorite, #11 CRYSTAL QUEST he fits this race overall though does not hold any strong edge to support a shorter number in this competitive field. That could also extend to #3 ROCK’N A HALO when looking at the Plot, though some of that Plot position/shape is impacted by the SLOG/TACTIC- in the Secretariat (G2) last out when in hand from off the pace unable to give a full account on the day. Finding his stronger efforts on the grass, he fits here and with the edge overall from stablemate #1 HIGGINS BOAT one that at the least should be a pace presence with the rail draw under J. Rocco though not along in that role with #12 BAXLEY and #13 REALIGNMENT should they find their way into this race.

Tough to assess the intent and form for #6 T’CHALLA fresh off the plane and quick landing in this race stateside for N. Drysdale following a place effort just 24-days ago overseas. While euro runners can often hold an edge this one could be finding a step up in class, if not a lateral move something that should be considered on value paired with a necessary visual assessment. 

#1 GASOLINE caught a strong group on the turf last month his grass debut and the form of that 9/1 race has held up with the horses coming back improving figures, hitting the board and showing one next out winner. The connections claimed him for a higher $100k tag back in May and picked up some of that investment with the 7/17 allowance win at HS Indy. His overall form and runstyle fits today’s race and less concerning in for the $50k tag here something that could signal a claim or open up starter allowance races into the winter for the connections.

The ever consistent #4 READTHECLIFFNOTES is respected here once again and appears intent with the rider change though still could require the combination of a top effort along with the right trip to get the win and photo for the first time this year and something to consider on value with the ML assignment. That follows #7 ARDENWOOD one that is tough to argue his not capable pairing wins at this level this season, though did benefit from favorable/PERFECT trips.

#2 CODE RUNNER might not be the true “longshot” the odds suggest for this race. He will take the rise in class coming off the win last month, though has run competitive races under similar par/purse to today’s event and shown on the Plot as a Large Square, tough to dismiss. 

#4 CAROOM should find the change in circuit the right move providing a required DROP and belated move to the claiming level to suggest they are expecting a win and also a claim. He comes in with consistent form and figures with the ABOVE+ rating on Speed and Class compared with the others in this field looking at the OptixEQ data. He RunStyle does not hold a strong edge though certainly not a “bad” position as a Large Q2 Square with the “Fire” Contention rating.

The lower SpeedRate does hold a Plot upgrade to both #9 TIME MUSE and #10 TEMPLE FOOL as Quad I Squares in today’s field and worth keeping in the mix as an alternative to the favorite. #5 BIG ELM also upgraded off his most recent BTL effort though must step up in the speed figure department and requires some price compensation with the habit of SLOG/TROUBLE_S throughout his career and played a role in the 9/18 outcome.

Number wise #6 T LAW has numbers in line with CAROOM on his best day and given another look in this spot as he returns to the turf and the connections wheeling right back expected for the grass here. The surface switch and move to the claiming level assisted #7 I O FEDRO one that will take on winners for the first time though a progressive sophomore for top connections would be no surprise to pair wins here. 

Looking at the Surface/Distance Plot, there is a scenario for #10 APRIL’S GEM to get out in front and take this field gate to wire as a Square clear and above the ParLine. Things change mixing in the Standard Plot (current form) that includes runners coming in from dirt races and perhaps like we saw with the races last week providing an alternative should the race come off the turf, though given the projected weather forecast (even with light rain Friday am) is likely to remain on the turf.

The race dynamic along with a return to the turf could be the right combination for #8 DESSERT FIRST to step back up today to a competitive effort looking for the first win this season. He has turned in competitive races along the way including the B OptixGRADE back in April and starting off this form cycle when the races were taken off-the-turf in August with a change in dynamic given the four horse field.

A level of early contention, bunching up and “Circles” could assist #1 KINGSBURY DREAM one that is “buried” on the Plot as well as her races this season and could come in with intent given the rider change and Baird taking over. KINGSBURY DREAM turned in a competitive race under similar conditions back on 8/25 making a CLOSE for show into a Slow early pace, an upgrade showing run against the dynamic. #9 PASTA SALAD RHONDA also brings in a solid late kick though has had the opposite race shape above to close into a Very Fast early pace in her two more recent starts.

#5 LOTTA ROSES also comes in with some buried form and back to her preferred surface on the grass. She had an EX – EXCUSE in the 8/25 common race as well as two weeks ago with the surface switch, something that benefit #2 SILKY WARRIOR presenting value on the day and not out of it once again here.