Handicapper Tips & Picks

The gate move on 9/15 for #7 HIGH PROBABLITY is eye catching 46.3 and following up by pair of longer breezes should be race ready for the high profile connections first out. The other two FTS merit a look with #5 THREE AFLEET making his debut as an IL-bred with the bonus in play during the final two racing das and holds plenty of foundation in the work series and longer drills for fitness. #6 REAL BLUES shows a complete work tab with steady progression though nothing longer than 4f published and many from the gate to ponder if they needed the extra work from the start.

Those three new faces will be met with some experienced runners leading with #3 STRANGER’S CHURCH one that has recorded B OptixGRADE with winning efforts despite the two place finishes both times making a strong late CLOSE and the BLANKET finish last month at HS INDY under a similar par to today’s race returning to open company. Should also note the BLANKET finish #4 NEOTERIC on debut 12-days ago with the top four together at the wire. 

#1 BRUCE BANNER has come up short in the two starts this season under today’s conditions though could find the right field and a softer race par to move up naturally. He is looking for his first win of the year and since last June when J. Felix took him to the lead and went gate-to-wire over the Hawthorne turf. They could be looking for a similar tactic here and could work given the complexion of this field and the rail draw along with the fitness returning to this circuit in the second start of the cycle.

Many of the others in this field have show early speed at times however when making the lead showed a lack of finish and tend to prefer a stalk and pounce run. That could be the case for #4 STRONGER TOGETHER one that was sent to the lead last month and lacked finish and picked up their one win this year from a midpack tracking trip. Similar could be said for #5 SPANISH KISS rating to take over last on 9/21 though also found a softer group and takes a step up here with a much higher race par. The race par is closer to a lateral move for #6 CINCO DE MO though will be tested with the route of ground once again a distance where more often than not has shown to lose ground late. 

#2 SHADY MCGEE can be upgraded following the 9/12 effort caught WIDE X_BIAS and returns under similar conditions here. While he was taking the step up to $20k last month, the race par is similar and in line with where he has been competitive in the past. #5 NILES CHANNEL also returns from that 9/12 common race with back class that makes for a contender though one to get a look at from a physical standpoint and for the front wrap removal as an upgrade in this third start back of the cycle.

Racing luck is required with closer (Q4 Square) #8 SILVER QUARTERS one that fits and comes into this race with current form. He ran a huge race making a MOVE X_FLOW in the stakes returning in August from the layoff and another competitive MOVE wheeling back in the 9/12 common race. He will pick up a rider change with Baird taking over and could suggest intent with that move here.

As far as early pace the projections should be honest even with the “Snowflake” Contention, the 55 SpeedRate is on the higher side. That is in part to 4-5 runners above the par line including the expected favorites, #9 TEMPER TANTRUM picking this spot to make their return and could be a confident move rather than the $10k claiming event on the turf earlier this month to run here instead while retaining Emigh; #10 SOUL COAXING also finds a return to the right claiming level for his abilities and some further intent with that change second off the claim. 

#4 COWGIRL FRANKIE has a look returning from a legit EX – EXCUSE on 9/19, a compromised trip from start to finish showing more run than the line and finishing position suggests. With that said, the issues began at the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and not a one-off incident for her as she has shown those poor gate habits throughout her career and remains a liability today, while very capable at the same time.

#5 SPICY ITALIAN finds some positive changes for this race primarily the return to TURF. The connections will also drop down to run for a claiming tag, a move that is less concerning as they had considered running for $20k back in August at HS Indy and decided to give her a few more chances on this circuit in allowance company before the move today – and it is not like she is taking a severe drop. In addition, her ability to show early speed could present a tactical advantage on many of her main rivals that typically look to make their run from off the pace.

#8 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN had form that fits on par and back on the turf in claiming company upgraded from the WIDE trip against the course profile last month. She does not have that “flashy” form and running lines something that should keep the number in a playable range. She finds a similar if not slightly stronger Plot position and shape to #1 WEST COAST SONG, one that projects to be shorter of the two today. #3 BEE A WINNER finds herself in a similar position though a different shape as a Circle, though the trade off for price compensation as she projects to be one of the higher odds runners in this field and would not be shocked for her to pick up another minor slice.

The Circle shape is noted for #6 CATHOLIC SUE on Surface/Distance though given credit with the B OptixGRADE making up ground as the race was starting to slow late behind front running winner, Anna After Midnite last month.  

An improved effort can be projected for #1 ALIBI IKE making his second start off the layoff and showing a middle MOVE and NO_PUSH late over a course that favored runners inside and forwardly placed last month. They will find a change moving to the rail here and could show early speed to make the lead in a field where there is not true confirmed front runner.

#4 MINING CAMP is the lone EP in this field and positioned a s Quad I/III Square suggesting they can work out a trip under today’s conditions something not afforded racing WIDE in that 9/19 common race. #6 CHAMPAGNE MIKE also wheeling back from that event and place finish with the B- OptixGRADE that merits respect and carries to #5 ANCIENT MAN earning the same B- OptixGRADE making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW.

That local group (including #3 STOLICH) will be joined by the new face in #2 WILD TIME shipping in and capable (Large Square) though could gather added attention. Looking at figures he fits on par with this group and keying off the 9/28 OptixNOTES a quirky runner (OTHER) that showed some early interest lost ground before running on again late.

The race shape here should have a say in the outcome with seven of the twelve in the main body of the field sharing the E or EP runstyle that includes #1 DINO’S DIXIE from the rail along with #11 NAGY AND DA BEARS and #12 ANGER RISING from the outside looking to create an even more contentious/fast early dynamic. Those factors should be considered and with #10 MAHONEY ROAD as the expected favorite and one that based on the OptixPLOT data positioned in that first flight.

#7 SIR PISTOLERO is given an upgrade from the PREP two weeks ago in a race taken off the turf moved to the main track and won impressively by their stablemate King of the Palace. The changes for this race suggest intent with the timing, cut back in distance and move back to their preferred surface and could even look for a removal of the front wraps added last out. As far as the distance change that is an unknown, though not necessarily a knock, with the lone sprint their debut back in 2022 followed up by a lengthy 452-day layoff.

The distance change also comes into play for #3 GREAT COOLNESS one that could see this distance as Plan B after the races were taken off the turf and scratched as a result on 9/26. That aside, he brings form and upside in their second start back off the layoff and competitive races following the maiden win with sneaky “trips” that impacted the running line and finishing position.

#5 STROLLNTOTHEMARKET has a longshot look with figures on par and a move to the TURF a surface he should handle and given another chance over. His lone turf start was last summer with a TROUBLE_S and well off the pace unable to compete on the day and has shown improvement in each change returning this season as a four-year-old. 

If trying to get past #10 DANVILLE a legit type that takes the class drop in the final week looking and likely spotted for a win, perhaps it is with a runner on the lead; #1 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE could look to steal with C. Emigh back aboard as this pair has done in the past including a couple of times this season. Today’s par is higher than those other two races with the win showing up in this open claimer, however they should be a higher number in this group to provide some price compensation. Similar could follow #8 LOOKIN FOR REVENGE given the 9/8 recent running line and finishing position though should note he received a shoe repair in the paddock and perhaps that played a role on the day and holds upside along with the rider change as Baird takes the call.

Will give a mention to #2 WOKE UP IN LOVE as they return to a route/two turn distance for the first time this season. He was well-intended backed and bet down from the 10-1 ML on 9/26 and turned in a strong effort to finish in a BLANKET at the wire after arguably losing their race (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) at the break. While he comes into this race with form in this third start off the layoff and change in class, he has the history of longer layoffs to note, and higher career figures earned at the one turn/sprint distances.

If trying to get past #10 DANVILLE a legit type that takes the class drop in the final week looking and likely spotted for a win, perhaps it is with a runner on the lead; #1 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE could look to steal with C. Emigh back aboard as this pair has done in the past including a couple of times this season. Today’s par is higher than those other two races with the win showing up in this open claimer, however they should be a higher number in this group to provide some price compensation. Similar could follow #8 LOOKIN FOR REVENGE given the 9/8 recent running line and finishing position though should note he received a shoe repair in the paddock and perhaps that played a role on the day and holds upside along with the rider change as Baird takes the call.

Will give a mention to #2 WOKE UP IN LOVE as they return to a route/two turn distance for the first time this season. He was well-intended backed and bet down from the 10-1 ML on 9/26 and turned in a strong effort to finish in a BLANKET at the wire after arguably losing their race (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) at the break. While he comes into this race with form in this third start off the layoff and change in class, he has the history of longer layoffs to note, and higher career figures earned at the one turn/sprint distances.

The analysis starts with the ML favorite #6 FACCIA BELLA and can finds some obvious knocks when looking at the Surface/Distance Plot for this race and downgraded as a Q2 Circle. For the price compensation stablemate #10 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD has things to like along with the preferred Square shape on both Standard and Surface/Distance. Perhaps the biggest Plot upgrade falls to former stablemate #4 MISS RIVER RAT and one that is playable in this race with the projected price compensation given the assigned morning line and where O. Mojica lands.

Looking at the OptixPLOT, a potential pace advantage for #11 SHE’S MY WARRIOR is tough to ignore and could even hold the edge over the other front runners including #9 R KATIEBUG in this race though must show stamina around the two turns something she has yet to prove in just the limited starts. The edge on proven stamina sides with the other MN-bred #12 GYPSY REWARD though finds a different hurdle with the change in class and higher par here.

#5 FLAMMAND should add more early pace to the race and is “better” than her recent efforts and finishing positions, picking up a live change to C. Emigh. On her best day, she can compete at this level and with this group though a bit of a “fuzzy” mixing things up as the connections make the change in surface distance though she does hold a two turn win (before the DQ) from last April at KEE. 

On speed figures #2 SHABAM looks to hold an edge though looking at the Plot she will be forced to earn it with the higher SpeedRate and Fire Contention. She is capable of overmining to get the win, though should consider any potential hurdle at a short price as the case here to start the late double.

Looking at the Plot, the race shape could flatter #4 PRINCESS TENKO with her off the pace closing style and large Q4 Square. She has yet to find the Fire Contention and higher SpeedRate in her races here this season and a subtle change that is tougher to see “on paper” and found a similar scenario with success going back to her races at TAM. Value should hold as well today as she has come up short as the favorite in the recent starts though should change significantly here and likely to present an overlay. 

#2 INTERLUDE earned a strong follow with a BTL effort and IMPROVE visuals going back to November at the FG. He did step forward returning here off the layoff in June, though was compromised with the WEATHER (light rain) and making a MOVE X_FLOW playing a role in the outcome. He has been off again since, 124-days and some concern with the pattern of layoff lines, at the same time looks to be the type that must come out race ready. INTERLUDE has faced off against a higher par than rival #10 SHOTGUN RUNNER and value if left the higher of the two on the board.

C. Block shows up with a pair and often quite effective when that is the case: #9 LICENSE TO STEAL has the edge on experience and recency in this second start of the cycle with this race expected to stay on the TURF. Mojica had been aboard in the races this season and shifts to the other #8 NITSCHKE making their first start bringing in a steady series of works for this late season debut. 

We kick off our final week of the thoroughbred season with a nice 10 race card that includes a Late Pick 5 carryover beginning in Race 6 of $7,709. Babies in the opener to sprint as Larry Rivelli enters the final week of the meet with a three win advantage over Chris Block for leading trainer. Rivelli sends out 7-HIGH PROBABILITY in the first as he draws the outside. The gate drill on September 15 was impressive (:46 3/5) as he looks to be loaded with speed. I like the outside post for him in here as I expect him to clear quickly and never look back. 6-REAL BLUES runs for DiVito, who has had a solid meet as well as he has also worked forwardly toward this start. His breeding suggests he may eventually want to go longer but the sharp gate work on September 8 may be a sign that he is ready here. 3-STRANGER'S CHURCH could be one that is picking off runners late as he makes his second Hawthorne start. He has run second in his first two races and just needs to avoid getting hung wide into the lane.

A good field on the grass in a race that doesn't look to have a ton of pace. Hopefully one of the outside runners will keep longshot Lavender Earl honest early as I'll look to 2-SHADY MCGEE to settle and look to rally late. He ran a nice race in his last as he had to overcome traffic trouble on the turn before angling wide. If he can safe a little ground in here he should be picking off horses quickly into the lane. 10-SOUL COAXING is one of those who should be able to keep Lavender Earl in check as he may benefit from a pressing trip. Despite the outside draw the run is long enough into the first turn to get tucked in and the distance suits. Expect a solid effort with the move back to the grass. 8-SILVER QUARTERS has class and just needs that pace to chase. He has run well on the year, oftentimes while facing tougher and he gets his best distance in here. Let's see if Baird can keep him close.

Conditioned claimers on the grass to go a mile in another spot that doesn't have a ton of early pace. Gave the nod to 5-SPICY ITALIAN as she gets back to the turf where she held her own against tougher two back. She does have some tactical speed and could settle a bit closer early in here. 11-JOYZELLA could be a bit of a sleeper from the outside. It's been some time since she has run on turf but the recent form has been better and her race against this company two back was a solid performance. Maybe the stretch back out for 7-CRYSTAL SNOW puts her on the lead in this spot. The trainer switched bits for her last start which seems to fix some of the drifting problems she was having. If she can get away in good order and relax on the front, she may have enough left to hang around late.

Conditioned claimers in a pretty evenly match bunch. The rider change could be the difference for 6-CHAMPAGNE MIKE as Cohen is back aboard. He did ride around two turns two back but that was against much tougher. Since dropping to this level, the efforts have been stronger and let's see if he can finish today. 2-WILD TIME ran an improved race on the drop in his last as he was closing late down the center of the lane. He will need some pace to chase but has never missed the board in five starts at this distance. 5-ANCIENT MAN could be a bit of a sleeper as he has run well in his three dirt starts since being claimed. He does tend to run on too late at times but could close to get into the mix underneath.

Pace makes the race and there's not much along the lines of pace in here. Hoping that 1-DINOS DIXIE is able to clear from the rail and show that speed as he comes off a good effort at this level in his last. With E.T. aboard he gets a great speed rider and the barn has had a fine meet. 10-MAHONEY ROAD has tactical speed as he figures to rate close the entire way. He chased as the favorite in his last and battled late but has had a solid year and should be worth a look once again. 2-A P BLAZING GREEN will be hoping for a contested pace as he should come running in the lane. Slow starts have been costly in his last three but if he can get away in good order and save ground in here he should be picking off horses late.

The race for the old men as 7yo's and up take to the track in the Methuselah. Let's see if we can upset the likely favorite as I'll give the nod to 6-DEVIL VISION in this spot. He ran a solid race just last week as he was left to chase the lone speed of Christmas Present and was the only one getting to that runner late. There's more pace in this spot to chase as he should get the jump on the late closers. 10-DANVILLEhas been competitive in the Allowance ranks but drops back down for this spot as he looks to get a confidence boost. He likes this track but may have to work out positioning early from the outside draw. 4-WHISKEY WEDNESDAY didn't show much in his last but was solid in the three starts prior. He has the ability to close with a rush and is another that will benefit from a quick and contested pace upfront.

With some pace in here to her outside, thinking 2-SHABAM could be sitting on a perfect trip as she looks to rate and rally in the lane. She was a good winner around two turns on the dirt in her start two back and gets back to a similar level today. Expect her to take a good amount of action in here. 10-MORNING LINE NEWS just missed in her last at this level and figures to get a similar trip once again. Santos rode her to victory three back and is back in the saddle today. 6-CHILD PROOF has speed and may be the one looking to clear early. If she can shake loose, she has the potential to wire this field but I'm concerned she may have some company early from She Be Sheehan.

Turf maidens to close the day with a full field. 10-SHOTGUN RUNNER comes off a good race in his last as he had to overcome some traffic in the lane which was costly. He has shown good tactical speed in recent races and may rate close in this race that is lacking early pace. 2-INTERLUDE has some speed as he chased in his last and contended well into the lane. That race did come back in June though but he has been working consistently since that start. Cohen gets the call in here for Roussel. 12-MACHIVA scratched off the also-eligibles in the Hawthorne Derby last Saturday for this spot as she will take on the boys today. She has been improving with each start and just missed with last rallies in her last couple. Let's see if she can everyone down late in here.

7-HIGH PROBABILITY races for the top barn. This $150k purchase has been training forwardly for his debut. The barn wins with 28% first time starters and their 2-year-olds generally do well. 3-STRANGER’S CHURCH has had two starts and finished second in both. His second race, however, was better than his first. Should be at the top of his game in this spot. Could run by them all. 6-REAL BLUES is another first timer that runs for a barn that does well with their debut runners and their babies. He’s also had a strong workout pattern. Figures to be a major player. 4-NEOTERIC raced competitively in his lone start. That race took place at Canterbury on the lawn. Runners from his barn usually improve with experience and runners for them going from turf to dirt with 31% of the time. Wouldn’t ignore his chances.

6-CINCO DE MO only finished fourth in his first start after getting claimed by this barn but he was moving well late. Stretches out in his local debut, often a profitable move for this barn. The average speed figures of 4-STRONGER TOGETHER are higher than those of his rivals. He owns decent speed. Should be in the hunt throughout. 5-SPANISH KISS is in better form than most.

8-SILVER QUARTERS might be poised to surprise. He doesn’t have the best record in the field but like the switch in riders and like the way he gave Another Mystery a run for the money in two stakes earlier this year. Another Mystery went on to win the $150,000 Carey Memorial Handicap over a graded stakes quality field. 9-TEMPER TANTRUM, with six turf wins and over $229,000 in turf earnings, is probably the one to beat. However, he hasn’t raced since January and even though he has had four recent drills, none really impressed. 6-BOURBON LIFE certainly can’t be ignored. He was well bet in last at this level and won the race. Wouldn’t be surprised if he did it again.

5-SPICY ITALIAN takes a much-needed drop in class. She hasn’t shown a lot in three previous turf races but her speed figures suggest she’s as fast as any at this level. Catalano in her corner is always a plus. Can’t figure any excuses for 8-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN’s last race but she didn’t run a step. However, she closed very well in her prior two turf races. There isn’t a lot of pace in here to set up for a late runner but think she was a speedy sort in the past. Maybe her new rider will coax some of that old speed out of her. 6-CATHOLIC SUE finished in the money in both turf races since moving to this barn. She’s another, however, who comes from far out of it and don’t think the pace of this race will support a big closing move.

6-CHAMPAGNE MIKE finished second in both races at this level. He gets a different rider for this attempt and I think this rider will suit him better. Should be racing right off the early pace. Can finish with something left. 2-WILD TIME drops a notch. It’s obviously a long time since he broke his maiden but he has finished in the money in six of his nine races this year. Might not get the best pace ahead of him so he’ll have to do it all on his own. Thought 1-ALIBI IKE would have been tougher when dropped to this level for last but instead had his worst race of the year. Work since last suggests there is nothing amiss. Deserves another chance.

8-PONCHO ATTACK closes very well when he gets a fast pace ahead of him and there should be plenty of pace in this speed-filled race. He finished second to the lone speed in last and he’ll be meeting that same rival today but it’s unlikely that that runner will be able to secure an easy lead in this one. That could make all the difference. 1-DINO’S DIXIE and 11-NAGY AND THE BEARS are likely to be vying for the lead in this race and they could even be joined by a few others. If either does get clear, he could wire the field. Don’t think that will happen.

It’s the end of the meet so it’s no surprise that you’ll see droppers like 10-DANVILLE. This 7-year-old has had a decent year, running on turf and dirt, and always meeting better rivals. Drops from allowance company. Wonder how many claims there will be on him. 6-DEVIL VISION improved over the last couple months. The biggest difference I can see is that he woke up once they started using front wraps. He just finished second in his local 2024 debut. A race like that would put him in prime contention. 2-WOKE UP IN LOVE ships in from Iowa. He’s been racing competitively against state breds and meets open company in his local debut but his speed figures strongly suggest that he fits well with these.

Great race. Highly competitive. Let’s see if 2-WANDA STRONG can surprise them again. Just throw out her last on dirt. She wired her prior two fields on the lawn. Her rider gets them out of the gate as fast as anybody. Might not get caught. 6-FACCIA BELLA will be the one most likely to benefit if a contested early pace develops. This late runner won two of her last three starts and popped two bullet drills since her last start. Could fly by them all. 9-R KATIEBUG is another likely to be gunning for the lead. Chased top pick in second throughout the last time they met. She’s had five turf races, winning once and finishing second in the other four. Figures big time. This will be the easiest field 10-TRAIL RIDGE ROAD has met in a long time. She’s going to be stalking the early pace. Might be the first to make a move in the stretch.

Not sure if 2-SHABAM is a standout but she won the last two times she raced on dirt and she has been in great form on dirt and turn, finishing in the money in her last eight, including the two wins. 8-SHE BE SHEEHAN takes a much-needed drop in class. She took on better, on a muddy track, in her first start after getting claimed by this barn but she wired the field at this level in her previous start. 10-MORNING LINE NEWS will be stalking the pace. She’s been in relatively good form lately. Seems to fit in well with these.

Wide open race to finish the card. Heard 8-NITSCHKE could be a bit of a runner. Full brother to Anger Rising, who just broke his maiden here last month, has been working well for a barn having an outstanding meet, especially with turf runners. Could follow in his sibling’s footsteps. 9-LICENSE TO STEAL improved considerably in his second start, finishing second to the aforementioned Anger Rising. He could display good speed at this longer distance and might be difficult to catch. 2-INTERLUDE makes his third start off a long layoff. His last was much better than his first of the year and this effort could be even stronger. 12-MACHIVA is a 3-year-old filly meeting older boys but she finished strongly in her last two and wound up in second place in each. Wouldn’t be surprised if she grabbed a share. 6-MAX’S MAP is an interesting runner. He’s bred to love the lawn but he never ran at a track with a grass course. He was a $200,000 purchase a couple years ago and was just claimed for $10,000 but might be worth a couple dollar saver on the get out race for a barn that does well with first-time claims.