Handicapper Tips & Picks

The gate move on 9/15 for #7 HIGH PROBABLITY is eye catching 46.3 and following up by pair of longer breezes should be race ready for the high profile connections first out. The other two FTS merit a look with #5 THREE AFLEET making his debut as an IL-bred with the bonus in play during the final two racing das and holds plenty of foundation in the work series and longer drills for fitness. #6 REAL BLUES shows a complete work tab with steady progression though nothing longer than 4f published and many from the gate to ponder if they needed the extra work from the start.

Those three new faces will be met with some experienced runners leading with #3 STRANGER’S CHURCH one that has recorded B OptixGRADE with winning efforts despite the two place finishes both times making a strong late CLOSE and the BLANKET finish last month at HS INDY under a similar par to today’s race returning to open company. Should also note the BLANKET finish #4 NEOTERIC on debut 12-days ago with the top four together at the wire. 

#1 BRUCE BANNER has come up short in the two starts this season under today’s conditions though could find the right field and a softer race par to move up naturally. He is looking for his first win of the year and since last June when J. Felix took him to the lead and went gate-to-wire over the Hawthorne turf. They could be looking for a similar tactic here and could work given the complexion of this field and the rail draw along with the fitness returning to this circuit in the second start of the cycle.

Many of the others in this field have show early speed at times however when making the lead showed a lack of finish and tend to prefer a stalk and pounce run. That could be the case for #4 STRONGER TOGETHER one that was sent to the lead last month and lacked finish and picked up their one win this year from a midpack tracking trip. Similar could be said for #5 SPANISH KISS rating to take over last on 9/21 though also found a softer group and takes a step up here with a much higher race par. The race par is closer to a lateral move for #6 CINCO DE MO though will be tested with the route of ground once again a distance where more often than not has shown to lose ground late. 

#2 SHADY MCGEE can be upgraded following the 9/12 effort caught WIDE X_BIAS and returns under similar conditions here. While he was taking the step up to $20k last month, the race par is similar and in line with where he has been competitive in the past. #5 NILES CHANNEL also returns from that 9/12 common race with back class that makes for a contender though one to get a look at from a physical standpoint and for the front wrap removal as an upgrade in this third start back of the cycle.

Racing luck is required with closer (Q4 Square) #8 SILVER QUARTERS one that fits and comes into this race with current form. He ran a huge race making a MOVE X_FLOW in the stakes returning in August from the layoff and another competitive MOVE wheeling back in the 9/12 common race. He will pick up a rider change with Baird taking over and could suggest intent with that move here.

As far as early pace the projections should be honest even with the “Snowflake” Contention, the 55 SpeedRate is on the higher side. That is in part to 4-5 runners above the par line including the expected favorites, #9 TEMPER TANTRUM picking this spot to make their return and could be a confident move rather than the $10k claiming event on the turf earlier this month to run here instead while retaining Emigh; #10 SOUL COAXING also finds a return to the right claiming level for his abilities and some further intent with that change second off the claim. 

#4 COWGIRL FRANKIE has a look returning from a legit EX – EXCUSE on 9/19, a compromised trip from start to finish showing more run than the line and finishing position suggests. With that said, the issues began at the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and not a one-off incident for her as she has shown those poor gate habits throughout her career and remains a liability today, while very capable at the same time.

#5 SPICY ITALIAN finds some positive changes for this race primarily the return to TURF. The connections will also drop down to run for a claiming tag, a move that is less concerning as they had considered running for $20k back in August at HS Indy and decided to give her a few more chances on this circuit in allowance company before the move today – and it is not like she is taking a severe drop. In addition, her ability to show early speed could present a tactical advantage on many of her main rivals that typically look to make their run from off the pace.

#8 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN had form that fits on par and back on the turf in claiming company upgraded from the WIDE trip against the course profile last month. She does not have that “flashy” form and running lines something that should keep the number in a playable range. She finds a similar if not slightly stronger Plot position and shape to #1 WEST COAST SONG, one that projects to be shorter of the two today. #3 BEE A WINNER finds herself in a similar position though a different shape as a Circle, though the trade off for price compensation as she projects to be one of the higher odds runners in this field and would not be shocked for her to pick up another minor slice.

The Circle shape is noted for #6 CATHOLIC SUE on Surface/Distance though given credit with the B OptixGRADE making up ground as the race was starting to slow late behind front running winner, Anna After Midnite last month.  

An improved effort can be projected for #1 ALIBI IKE making his second start off the layoff and showing a middle MOVE and NO_PUSH late over a course that favored runners inside and forwardly placed last month. They will find a change moving to the rail here and could show early speed to make the lead in a field where there is not true confirmed front runner.

#4 MINING CAMP is the lone EP in this field and positioned a s Quad I/III Square suggesting they can work out a trip under today’s conditions something not afforded racing WIDE in that 9/19 common race. #6 CHAMPAGNE MIKE also wheeling back from that event and place finish with the B- OptixGRADE that merits respect and carries to #5 ANCIENT MAN earning the same B- OptixGRADE making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW.

That local group (including #3 STOLICH) will be joined by the new face in #2 WILD TIME shipping in and capable (Large Square) though could gather added attention. Looking at figures he fits on par with this group and keying off the 9/28 OptixNOTES a quirky runner (OTHER) that showed some early interest lost ground before running on again late.

The race shape here should have a say in the outcome with seven of the twelve in the main body of the field sharing the E or EP runstyle that includes #1 DINO’S DIXIE from the rail along with #11 NAGY AND DA BEARS and #12 ANGER RISING from the outside looking to create an even more contentious/fast early dynamic. Those factors should be considered and with #10 MAHONEY ROAD as the expected favorite and one that based on the OptixPLOT data positioned in that first flight.

#7 SIR PISTOLERO is given an upgrade from the PREP two weeks ago in a race taken off the turf moved to the main track and won impressively by their stablemate King of the Palace. The changes for this race suggest intent with the timing, cut back in distance and move back to their preferred surface and could even look for a removal of the front wraps added last out. As far as the distance change that is an unknown, though not necessarily a knock, with the lone sprint their debut back in 2022 followed up by a lengthy 452-day layoff.

The distance change also comes into play for #3 GREAT COOLNESS one that could see this distance as Plan B after the races were taken off the turf and scratched as a result on 9/26. That aside, he brings form and upside in their second start back off the layoff and competitive races following the maiden win with sneaky “trips” that impacted the running line and finishing position.

#5 STROLLNTOTHEMARKET has a longshot look with figures on par and a move to the TURF a surface he should handle and given another chance over. His lone turf start was last summer with a TROUBLE_S and well off the pace unable to compete on the day and has shown improvement in each change returning this season as a four-year-old. 

If trying to get past #10 DANVILLE a legit type that takes the class drop in the final week looking and likely spotted for a win, perhaps it is with a runner on the lead; #1 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE could look to steal with C. Emigh back aboard as this pair has done in the past including a couple of times this season. Today’s par is higher than those other two races with the win showing up in this open claimer, however they should be a higher number in this group to provide some price compensation. Similar could follow #8 LOOKIN FOR REVENGE given the 9/8 recent running line and finishing position though should note he received a shoe repair in the paddock and perhaps that played a role on the day and holds upside along with the rider change as Baird takes the call.

Will give a mention to #2 WOKE UP IN LOVE as they return to a route/two turn distance for the first time this season. He was well-intended backed and bet down from the 10-1 ML on 9/26 and turned in a strong effort to finish in a BLANKET at the wire after arguably losing their race (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) at the break. While he comes into this race with form in this third start off the layoff and change in class, he has the history of longer layoffs to note, and higher career figures earned at the one turn/sprint distances.

If trying to get past #10 DANVILLE a legit type that takes the class drop in the final week looking and likely spotted for a win, perhaps it is with a runner on the lead; #1 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE could look to steal with C. Emigh back aboard as this pair has done in the past including a couple of times this season. Today’s par is higher than those other two races with the win showing up in this open claimer, however they should be a higher number in this group to provide some price compensation. Similar could follow #8 LOOKIN FOR REVENGE given the 9/8 recent running line and finishing position though should note he received a shoe repair in the paddock and perhaps that played a role on the day and holds upside along with the rider change as Baird takes the call.

Will give a mention to #2 WOKE UP IN LOVE as they return to a route/two turn distance for the first time this season. He was well-intended backed and bet down from the 10-1 ML on 9/26 and turned in a strong effort to finish in a BLANKET at the wire after arguably losing their race (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) at the break. While he comes into this race with form in this third start off the layoff and change in class, he has the history of longer layoffs to note, and higher career figures earned at the one turn/sprint distances.

The analysis starts with the ML favorite #6 FACCIA BELLA and can finds some obvious knocks when looking at the Surface/Distance Plot for this race and downgraded as a Q2 Circle. For the price compensation stablemate #10 TRAIL RIDGE ROAD has things to like along with the preferred Square shape on both Standard and Surface/Distance. Perhaps the biggest Plot upgrade falls to former stablemate #4 MISS RIVER RAT and one that is playable in this race with the projected price compensation given the assigned morning line and where O. Mojica lands.

Looking at the OptixPLOT, a potential pace advantage for #11 SHE’S MY WARRIOR is tough to ignore and could even hold the edge over the other front runners including #9 R KATIEBUG in this race though must show stamina around the two turns something she has yet to prove in just the limited starts. The edge on proven stamina sides with the other MN-bred #12 GYPSY REWARD though finds a different hurdle with the change in class and higher par here.

#5 FLAMMAND should add more early pace to the race and is “better” than her recent efforts and finishing positions, picking up a live change to C. Emigh. On her best day, she can compete at this level and with this group though a bit of a “fuzzy” mixing things up as the connections make the change in surface distance though she does hold a two turn win (before the DQ) from last April at KEE. 

On speed figures #2 SHABAM looks to hold an edge though looking at the Plot she will be forced to earn it with the higher SpeedRate and Fire Contention. She is capable of overmining to get the win, though should consider any potential hurdle at a short price as the case here to start the late double.

Looking at the Plot, the race shape could flatter #4 PRINCESS TENKO with her off the pace closing style and large Q4 Square. She has yet to find the Fire Contention and higher SpeedRate in her races here this season and a subtle change that is tougher to see “on paper” and found a similar scenario with success going back to her races at TAM. Value should hold as well today as she has come up short as the favorite in the recent starts though should change significantly here and likely to present an overlay. 

#2 INTERLUDE earned a strong follow with a BTL effort and IMPROVE visuals going back to November at the FG. He did step forward returning here off the layoff in June, though was compromised with the WEATHER (light rain) and making a MOVE X_FLOW playing a role in the outcome. He has been off again since, 124-days and some concern with the pattern of layoff lines, at the same time looks to be the type that must come out race ready. INTERLUDE has faced off against a higher par than rival #10 SHOTGUN RUNNER and value if left the higher of the two on the board.

C. Block shows up with a pair and often quite effective when that is the case: #9 LICENSE TO STEAL has the edge on experience and recency in this second start of the cycle with this race expected to stay on the TURF. Mojica had been aboard in the races this season and shifts to the other #8 NITSCHKE making their first start bringing in a steady series of works for this late season debut.