Handicapper Tips & Picks

Number wise there is not much between #5 MALIBU BRAD and #3 KIRILL THE THRILL in this spot where even on class there is not much between the two looking at their complete series of races. #1 ULTIMATE FIGHTER isn’t all that “outside” the box as an alternative though could still be a new face making his third start at this level this season and of the form cycle with early speed to the inside and that could be the key to get the edge and the jump on this field.

#4 FLYING CRICKET could be worth getting creative with finding the much needed class DROP for today’s race though overall requires a career best as on speed figures he is lighter than today’s main rivals. With that said has shown some progress in this cycle and fitness with the connections keeping him at the ONE_TURN and picking up a rider change to A. Santos.

#2 AVERYZ DAY can be given a look off their debut and should hold value for this second start off the running line and finishing position. He gave up a lot of position at the start breaking SLOG and ducking in (TROUBLE_S) from there SAVED ground made inside MOVE and continued to GALLOP+ out along with the 3-5 perfect trip chalk winner. 

M. Boyce looks to continue domination into closing day with a capable pair in this race: #3 FREEDOM LASS finds a lateral change making her debut on this circuit and could secure the right inside stalking trip as stablemate #2 CAT ATTACK should be forward right from the jump though could have company on the lead with #6 MY LADY SLEW in this field – one that does her best when on for lead the lead and even #7 IT’SFIFTYSHADE time with the apprentice aboard could try to make the top for their trip today.

There was a clever idea with #10 SHE’S WANDAFUL last out though taken back with the surface switch and now upgraded again returning to the turf and following an EX – EXCUSE with the TROUBLES+ taking herself out of the race at the start. Baird taking over today catches the eye and could suggest further intent. 

Looking at the Plot, #4 WHOLE LOTTA LUTE should be on the lead at the first call and a threat to take this field gate-to-wire. He has some overall concerns as an individual making his debut late as a 4yo and the layoff lines getting to the races this year though also likely part of the reason they ran for a tag last out and some positive they will run for the higher $18.8k IL-bred allowance tag today tempering the outcome of a claim today.

Sticking with the Plot, a Surface/Distance upgrade can be given to #5 DASH FOR THE CASH. He has yet to run back to the figures from 2023 required to compete here, though has been racing against the higher SB allowance class and his lone claiming start this season was back in August going two turns on the turf.

#1 SHAMEN SEZ showed tactical speed with the maiden win in August though set pedestrian (Slow early/late) fractions on the lead. They took up a stalking trip taking on winners last month though less than ideal TACTIC- and some stretch TROUBLE as the top three (all finishing together at the wire) were able to establish position and get the jump in the final furlong.

#7 QUIERO DINERO has held his own at this level this season and the edge over some of today’s rivals exiting a similar conditions. With that said, he is one that has the SLOG pattern and as a result makes his run from off the pace and finds a softer dynamic early then the Fire/higher 50 SpeedRate that assisted the place finish last month. 

Number wise #3 AUSPICIOUS STYLE fits strongly on figures as a contender though has the layoff as the main question mark returning here, a belated return on closing day. He is tough to ignore though off the prior form and how the runners from this barn have often been bet this season, a shorter number can be projected.

#6 AVIANO returns to this circuit and the turf course for this third start of the cycle and has held his form this year and fits with today’s group/par. The connections find this spot, not only where they can compete though also can remain protected as a further positive.

#1 BANDIT SWANSON turned in a BTL effort back in September and given a look earlier this month off that effort however on the day compromised by the TROUBLE something to give another look back in here and should hold value off the recent running line. That line includes #1 RIVER REDEMPTION as the race winner and one that had a more favorable inside tracking trip and from the rail along with the course profile recording a new top in the process.  

Another common race from 9/29 includes the winner #7 BAKENEKO (one that could find a tougher dynamic here) and #9 STORM’S REFLECTION one that has yet to run the race here this season required to compete though finds a subtle change in the Plot position from Q4 to Q2 and hold the effort from back in August on the CBY turf that would have him competitive here. 

This is a serious race where a case can be made for many as individuals and a lot of intent by the connections in this spot. Looking at the Plot, #8 ELI’S PROMISE could find the right trip as a Q1 Square drawn outside and tracking the very quick #6 CONGRATS ON FIFTY (and even #2 LUNGBERG should they send though one that is a downgrade from the REGRESS in August and BIAS aided win last month) with Centeno looking for first run. Going back to the 8/1 race the TACTIC- played against them as they chose to rate in a WIDE stalking trip and did show a CLOSE and GALLOP+ something tougher to see with the running line and distant 5^th place finish.

Some of the running lines and common races this season with #5 WENT WEST going back to the summer events and looking at the Plot should be running on from midpack as a Large Square (the edge today over quality sophomore, #7 KING ANTHONY) though does open the door for another to get the jump with early position, though capable all the same. #1 MANTA REY also a Square to run on from well off the pace and number wise lighter than some others in this field though did find a similar dynamic (Fire/SpeedRate) in his win back in February at Oaklawn, though a race also with a lower par than today’s event.

#9 DIVINE LEADER has shown legitimate early speed in his career and while those races have yet to come this season, he has those back races and very fast numbers that make them a contender and one to get creative with at the right number. He was dismissed from the 3-1 ML in the common race with their stablemate rival, #4 UNCAPTURED WARRIOR last month and DIVINE LEADER presents the upside of the two here. 

#5 SWIFT AS I AM took a tough beat in both the place finishes earlier this year and looking for that belated second win could land in the right time and place with some buried form off the recent running lines. He started back his form cycle in August a race taken off the turf also looked to be a PREP and upgraded going forward. The connections feeling similar took their shot at KYD though unable to get into the race with TACTIC- and fast race for the level last month showing run in spots to suggest they hold another most forward. The distance change will be the first time in a long time, though capable around two turns going back to their sophomore season out in California.

#10 AMERICAN MAYHEM scratched from the Carey Memorial (G3) and the timing allows them added recovery off a taxing HARD effort with the win in September. A top effort would have been required for that stakes race and similar here in this competitive allowance though does fit on class, speed and ABOVE (Plot) for today’s race shape.

#11 SIVAKO makes a belated return though back to the TURF and under similar conditions from the win in May. Today’s race par is slightly higher requiring a top effort though should be competitive here all the same. The race shape should also assist former stablemate #1 BATTLE SCARS (Q4 Square) one that comes off two straight wins to validate today’s rise back up in class. 

#1 BOAT SONG returns to Hawthorne and looking for their first win this season. He has turn competitive races in tough spots earlier this year at Oaklawn and upside from the September EX – EXCUSE at CBY, a subtle EXCUSE with the timing X_FLOW in the race shape.

BOAT SONG has shown early speed and early speed to win over this course going back to late December 2022 breaking his maiden over this course and 5.5f distance though could require a tracking trip given the L. Rivelli pair: #3 WHERE YA AT VINCE is given a flow upgrade from the DUEL/FTQ as part of the Very Fast (early/late) race shape on 9/19. He also finds a little more time between starts noting the quick one week turnaround from that race. He has the edge on figures and class to stablemate #4 WILLIE BIRD one that will give up recency taking on winners for the first time and a tougher group than the maiden field from back in July.

#8 ATKINS makes the distance change and likely to race from off the pace given the shorter distance and complexion of this field with runners that hold legit early sprint speed. That could work in their favor from pace (Q2/Q4 Square) and hold form from the recent allowance races with figures/Grades on par. 

#4 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE returns fresh for the connections and patiently waiting for a turf event, noting they were entered under similar conditions on 9/26 though scratched with the races taken off the turf.  He is also back under similar conditions from the 8/4 allowance when turning in a “winning” race for the level (B) making a MOVE through TRAFFIC waiting just a bit too long allowing the race winner, Towering Storm first run. They are given a look off that effort and in today’s race all around to come back with another competitive effort and poised to get the win here.

The outside post positions could be a hurdle for both #11 ALL CHOKED UP and #12 MAN ON ATTACK runners that have held their own under similar allowance/par races this season. They both bring in early speed (Q1/3) to this race and going back to closing day last year the turf course did flatter speed playing very fast and perhaps that works to their favor. A similar tracking trip from the inside could fall on #1 SHARP STICK one that is a touch light on class though did make a positive PRERACE+ appearance on 9/26 and physicality to appreciate the move back to the TURF. 

Should #13 SWEET CRYSTAL fail to draw into this event, looking at the Plot that could only further assist #10 LOST SUNSET on the lead and less pace pressure to the first call. LOST SUNSET should be able to get the jump on the other Q1 Runners under an aggressive E. T.  Baird and like she has on other occasions this season look to take this field gate-to-wire. #11 ADIVA could fall into a first run tracking trip and fits at this level, though not one that is the most willing to win, the change in class and weight break can assist. #14 LADY ATLANTIC is also sitting on the AE and while she is unlikely to take part in the early pace she is coming off an EX – EXCUSE last out and kept in mind should she draw in.

#5 MYSTIC STORM does not have the clear EX from her two recent starts though more subtle and presents upside in this current progressive (improving Grades) form cycle pattern. She was very fractious in the GATE on 8/22 and as a result broke SLOG with TROUBLE in running. She wheeled back in two week for the 9/5 race, a race won on the front end by her stablemate SWEET CRYSTAL and raced against the track profile that was tough to make up ground, something to consider for her as well as #12 THINK BLUE racing with the profile that day.

The “Sun” Contention rating is respected and something to assist #8 HEAVENLY HASH in terms of trip. She turned in a BTL effort at this level with the 4^th place finish back on 9/8 and showed run after the WARM UP and DELAY two weeks ago when in for the slightly higher claiming tag.

#3 LUNARCHY is another that has sneaky form coming into his race and strong CLOSE at this claiming level in both of the 9/8 and 9/28 starts. She requires a lot of racing luck and things in her favor making that deep closing (Q4 Square) off the pace run especially with this full field though should present plenty of price compensation to keep in the mix. 

Again if pace makes this race and Surface/Distance Plot prevails #6 EUCLID AVENUE has a legit chance to clear and take this field gate to wire. He will find some class relief and return to the dirt from a less than ideal trip two weeks on the dirt that compromised them on the day and should be able to return to a top effort here only aided if given that  pace advantage.

#8 LAND MARK DEAL could look to take first run on the main closers, the three inside runners #1 IZEONDEC, #2 CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER and #3 MILLARD’S SMILE all legit threats in this race and another any big knocks to discount. LAND MARK DEAL should hold higher odds than that trip given the recent races (upgraded racing X_BIAS 10-days ago) and overlooked the B OptixGRADE when in for the $5k tag at the conditional claiming condition back on 9/1. That effort has him on par with this group and 78 figure sits in line with the recent figures from the main players in here. 

Looking at the Plot, the early pace should be Contentious with the Fire rating and honest early fractions with the 34 SpeedRate to set up a trip from just off the pace. #9 ECHO DREAMER makes a return to Hawthorne where she picked up the maiden win on opening day and will look for a true storybook season with a win on closing day. There is upside for her returning to claiming company as well as in this second start of the cycle coming right back from the 9/30 race when she was very fractious in the GATE and was not checked out prior to the start likely the SLOG as a result.

Part of the early pace includes #2 PEGGY’S WAY one that does not look too appealing as a Large Circle in Q1 (especially compared the Square of #6 ACCLERATING BABE) though part of the “lack of finish” for PEGGY’S WAY is due to the X_FLOW in the recent series of races and even the timing when rushed right back and not fully recovered on 9/26, a sign with the front wraps added that day and something to look for in the paddock. She has shown and every other pattern and would be the time to cycle back to a top and should hold value with that recent running line and finishing position sitting on top of the pp’s even with today’s change in class. 

It is reasonable to assume Rivelli was waiting for #3 RIVZONAROLL to drop back in for the $5k tag, the number he was claimed at back in June and had been racing for a higher tag since. RIVZONAROLL fits at this level and while he came up short in that 10/3 start, the poor start (Gate, TROUBLE_S, RUSH) caught up with him late. With all that intention said, he is best when on the lead and there are others in here that can try to keep him honest (#4 MCVICKER) up front including #10 BREAKING NEWS one that will break from the outside and could assist a tracking trip.

That scenario can assist #5 CHRISTMAS PRESENT looking to deliver once again and can rate returning to a sprint distance. The stalking trip can also assist #7 PINBALLER one that is not as strong as a Circle on the Plot, though has run some credible races this season and arguably “due” for a win – E. T. Baird, his maiden win rider will be taking over today could be a sign of further positive intent.

It is tough to close let alone at the 5f distance which should be the case here though #3 TRICKY MAGICIAN is capable in this spot with price compensation. They picked up a win under similar condition back on 8/16 followed up with an EX on 9/6 and more subtle excuse running at a higher par in the recent 9/20 start. 

#4 FIRECRACKER FIONA showed run on debut following a TROUBLE_S RUSH making a WIDE MOVE and strong GALLOP+ with visuals to suggest she can IMPROVE. The connections tried her at the MSW condition off the debut and not quite to that level she has been freshened 41-days and back to where she can compete from the initial start.

The final card for the 2024 thoroughbred meet with 12 races and a lot of large fields. Kick it off with maidens here as 5-MALIBU BRAD should get the perfect trip in this spot. He gets pace to chase, likes the track and distance, and just needs to show a bit more finish. He's the most consistent of the bunch and should break through in here. 1-ULTIMATE FIGHTER will be winging it from the inside but stamina is the question for him. He's been better in his last couple and could get brave if left alone on the lead into the lane. 7-GRAY MIKE will need some pace to chase as he should be closing well late. He ran well in races 2,3, and 4 back and could pick up the pieces underneath.

Giving the nod on the grass to 3-FREEDOM LASS in this spot in a move not typical for Boyce. This one comes off a claim at Louisiana Downs in August before heading our way. On the grass though and for these connections I expect she will be very tough. 8-STAR WISHER has the running style to rate and pounce. She ran well over this course in August and picks up Santos in the saddle once again. 10-SHE'S WANDAFUL scratched from a tougher spot on Thursday for this race. She stretches back out to two turns where she was a good third at this level three back.

Pace makes the race and I really don't see any others aside from 4-WHOLE LOTTA LUTE making the top in here. He finds things a bit easier today as he comes out of a race where he tired inn the lane in his last. I expect he can clear, relax, and have more than enough left late. 1-SHAMAN SEZ will likely be chasing from the inside as he makes his first start in six weeks. He was a good winner two back and held his own against state-bred allowance runners in Minnesota in his most recent start. Look for him to stalk and try to pounce in the lane. 7-QUIERO DINERO was rallying late in her last and figures to be closing well once again in here. She gets Felix back aboard as he gave her a fine ride in that most recent start.

There's little along the lines of early pace in this race which should benefit 11-WICKED SURPRISE today. He was game in his last as he made the lead and nearly stole the race. With the added 16th today he will have to look to relax out front but should be the right price. 2-RIVER REDEMPTION has won two of his last four, including the start where he ran down my top choice in his last. He gets a good inside draw once again but may not be getting the same amount of pace to chase ahead of him. 3-AUSPICIOUS STYLE comes in from California off an eight month layoff as he makes his return today. After a good 2023 campaign he has made just the one start on the year. He is working well toward the return and could be ready off the bench.

A good field of optional claimers in a race where there appears to be a likely contested pace upfront. If that's the case, 4-UNCAPTURED WARRIOR should be able to tuck in just behind the pace setters and look to get the jump on the closers. He was a sharp winner in his last and has won 3 of 4 at the distance. Expect a good effort at a square price. 5-WENT WEST is another with tactical speed as he likes this Hawthorne strip. Colon has ridden him well in the past and takes the return ride in here. 7-KING ANTHONY turns back to the sprint as he should move forwardly in here as well. Let's see how the 3yo does while facing older today.

An excellent field in here with many in with a chance. There's only a couple with speed as I'm hoping 4-GOLDEN BANDIT can clear and make every call a winning one. He was the beaten favorite in his last couple and was favored over the like of stakes-place Tonka Warrior in those starts. He has ability and could steal in here. 1-BATTLE SCARS has won his last two as he look to rally late off a ground saving trip from the inside. Mojica has had an exceptional meet as well as Chris Block. 10-AMERICAN MAYHEM was entered in the Carey Memorial a couple of weeks ago but scratched out of that spot in favor of today's race. He has tactical speed as he will have to work a bit to get tucked in into the first turn.

The final turf race of the season as there's a little early pace along the inside but the majority of the speed is stuck on the far outside. 1-SHARP STICK was the beaten favorite on the main track in his last after winning on turf impressively two back. He has tactical speed and could get the perfect trip from the rail draw. 9-SIMPLE LOGIC has improved in his last three, getting moved up to second in an allowance test two back. He'll be a bit further off the early pace but can close well late. His issue is at times he has hung a bit in the stretch. 6-PROFESSOR HIGGINS is a longshot look as he has been sharp throughout the racing season. He's been hung a bit wide into the lane in his last couple but has shown the ability to uncork a strong late rally.

Really only one in here that appears fast enough early to clear as 10-LOST SUNSET could look to repeat her most recent performance. She has speed, gets a great speed rider in E.T. aboard and likes the distance. With a good break today she should be clear immediately. 6-WRITTEN CONSENT was no match for Lost Sunset three back but has greatly improved her form in a pair of starts since. Look for her to track the leader early with hopes that she can wear her down late. 11-ADIVA ran a good enough race in her last as she chased the entire way and was a clear second. She picks up the bug girl in the saddle today and should provide some value at the windows.

A little more pace to chase is the key for 3-MILLARD'S SMILE as he comes off a race in his last where there was a lone speed runner who stole the race. With the chance of a bit more pace upfront to close into, he should be able to wear down the leaders in the lane.  6-EUCLID AVENUE is one with speed that I expect will try to clear and steal in here. The question is if he will have company early, but if loose he may never look back. 2-CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER almost got home in time in his last as he closed into a very slow pace. Felix rode that day and is back aboard for the new connections in here.

With the likelihood of Peggy's Way trying to steal this and the potential for her to have company, I think 6-ACCELERATING BABE could get the trip from just off the pace. She ran a good second at this level in her last and gets Cohen back aboard. Expect her to rate and run on in the lane. 2-PEGGY'S WAY will be headed for the top under E.T. but has shown some stamina issues in the past. She does drop a couple of notches into this spot but is no gimme at a likely short price. 5-TRIBEST has been on the turf recently but ran some solid dirt races when looking to try to break her maiden. She gets the bug Slevinsky back aboard and should be closing well late.

I don't mind the outside draw for 10-BREAKING NEWS here as he may be forced to rate which is what I'm hoping for from him. He has had an excellent season and Centeno has been a good fit in the saddle. Look for him to stalk early and close late. 2-JOHNNY UP will be closing from a bit further back as he gets an inside trip in here. Mojica gets the call today as this one was competitive against better when last here at the end of 2022. 5-CHRISTMAS PRESENT is as honest as they come. He has been very good all meet long and can't be dismissed.

3-KRILL THE THRILL drops, turns back in distance, and puts blinkers back on. Should have something left for the stretch run. 5-MALIBU BRAD might be the most logical but he’s had five races at this level and he remains a maiden. He does have good speed, however, and has only one to beat to the lead. 1-ULTIMATE FIGHTER is probably the best of the speed. He usually starts running out of gas by midstretch but he did hold on to finish second versus similar two races back.

3-FREEDOM LASS could be an interesting runner. She’s an Illinois bred that hasn’t raced in Illinois since 2019. The majority of her career has been spent in southern Cal. But she was shipped to Louisiana Downs for last, dropped into a low level claimer against the boys and finished second. Her original trainer claimed her back from that race. The main knock I see is that her race in August was her first start since May and she had only one work since. 5-SHY SHY makes her local debut. Canterbury shipper has had four turf races and made noticeable improvement with each passing start. She beat a good allowance field in last. Figures prominently. . 2-CAT ATTACK drops into claimers. Speedy miss has been stopping badly but she is cutting back to her best distance. Might outlast them today.

5-DASH TO THE CASH meets his easiest field ever. He’s making only his third start of the year. He displayed unusual (for him) speed in last and even took the lead in midstretch. Gets the hot apprentice rider for this trip. Guessing he’ll run them down. 4-WHOLE LOTTA LUTE says catch me. She stopped badly in her first start against winners but she’s dropping a few levels for this and might not have to work so hard getting to the lead. 7-QUIERO DINERO will be coming late.  There should be plenty of speed to set up for her. She has been in good form. Might finally get over the hump

2-RIVER REDEMPTION has been very good on the lawn. He’s had 12 races and won five of them while finishing in the money the other six. His versatility allows him to run well against any kind of pace. He’s the ideal $10k claiming turf horse. 3-AUSPICIOUS STYLE found an easy spot to make his local debut. California shipper hasn’t raced since February. He was meeting far tougher rivals for the last year. But they can run him in this starter because he was facing company easier than this late last winter. Very live this spot. 11-WICKED SUPRISE is likely to be sent right to the lead, despite starting from the 11 hole. Getting to the front from out there could cost him a lot of energy but he has shown stamina time and time again. Might not hang on long enough to win but think he’ll be there long enough to share.

Have to give 5-WENT WEST the nod. This highly consistent gelding finished out of the money (4^th) in last but he wasn’t beaten all that badly. He’ll be tracking the pace in this race. Could make amends with the drop in class. 2-LUNDBERG is another that has been the model of consistency this year. He had three wins and three seconds from his seven 2024 starts. Unlike top choice, going right for the lead is the name of his game. He could put away the rest of the speed and still have enough left to hold off Went West. 4-UNCAPTURED WARRIOR comes off possibly the best race of his career, or so his speed figures indicate. He’s not quite as quick as Lundberg but doesn’t come from quite as far back as Went West. Probably races in second or third in the early stages beg=fore moving up to engage in the last quarter.

This is an incredibly competitive race. I don’t know if I could leave out anybody if I were putting in a big horizontal wager but, with 12 horses likely to run, you would need some pretty deep pockets. Most in here have generated a speed figure in the middle to high 80s at least once and a few have even gone over 90. Obviously not every time but at least you know they are capable. So, who do I choose? I think it has to be 10-AMERICAN MAYHEM. I like his versatility; I like that he’s making his third start of the year (after winning his last by daylight) and I like that he’s done well at the distance. 14-TOWERING STORM is lightly raced compared to most in here but he won his first two races and narrowly lost to Another Mystery, who went on to win a graded-stakes quality stakes, in his last. The third-place finisher from that last race also went on to win his next start. 6-CALIBRATE intrigues me. It had been a long time since he ran on turf and he only managed two seconds from four grass starts. However, they thought enough of him early on to run him in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Futurity and last year he finished in the money in two graded stakes on dirt. 4-GOLDEN BANDIT, stablemate on Calibrate will likely get more action than his buddy. He won three of four races at similar distances, including the $100,000 Canterbury Derby last year. Would like the speedy 12-DRAMA CHORUS better if he had a better post. He might have to work too hard to get to the lead from far outside but he is certainly capable of wiring the field. He does have five wins at the distance.

With all the speed in this race you would think that the pace should set up perfectly for 8-ATKINS. He finished second in his last two at this level. However, he’ll be utilizing a rider that has yet to win a race. Obviously the 10-pound weight allowance he gets because of that allowance could be a factor but it’s hard to give a strong vote of confidence to a rider that has yet to win. Slim pick. 4-WILLIE BIRD could turn out to be the best of the speed. This lightly-raced 3-year-old makes his first start since his maiden win in late July but he has continued to train well. 5-RUSSIAN TO WIN jumps in class but he did win his last two and four of eight this year. Like top pick, he has the kind of running style that will be favored by all the early speed in this race. He’s another that can surprise late.

There are no standouts in this race but most in here seem to have a legitimate chance to win…if they can unleash their best effort. Guess I’ll go with 2-EVEN THE WIND but it certainly isn’t a strong pick. He’s beaten some of these rivals while some of them have beaten him. It’s all going to come down to the trip. 4-C’EST MAGNIFIQUE comes off his best race in over a year. But now it’s been over two months since his last start. However, he has been training forwardly during that time. Guessing he’ll attack late. 8-MENDELSSOHN JOY and 6-PROFESSOR HIGGINS could both be overlooked in the wagering but both are capable of closing quickly.

10-LOST SUNSET could be left alone on the lead. She wired the fields the last three times she raced against claimers. There’s a good chance that will happen again today. Both 6-WRITTEN CONSENT and 9-ORNERY ANGEL ride two-race win streaks. Both own good tactical speed and both are likely to be tracking the pace set by top choice. 11-ADIVA drops one more time. She just finished second in a slightly better field. Figures prominently with these.

6-EUCLID AVENUE drops to an easier level. Speedy runner didn’t handle turf in last but he had been racing competitively against better runners prior to last. Think he’ll be tough with the drop to the right level. 3-MILLARD’S SMILE was claimed back by the top barn after losing him three races back. Late mover gets a legitimate pace ahead of him. Can slip by late. 2-CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER was narrowly defeated the last two times he raced at this level. Got claimed from last. Might get it done for his new barn.

They could have a tough time catching 2-PEGGY’S WAY. She’s been competitive versus better but she’s dropping to the right level and getting a rider who loves the lead. Recent grad 4-SWEET SMILA had some decent races early on but has kicked into another gear since switching to Mojica in the irons. 6-TRIBEST drops to the right level, cuts back in distance, and moves from turf to dirt. She owns decent speed but think she’ll be coming on late in the game.

10-BREAKING NEWS can win the final start of the meet. He’s been the model of consistency this year and the only time he finished out of the money (4^th) in his last nine starts was when he was taking on $25k claimers. The pace will be ideal. He can edge by late. 5-CHRISTMAS PRESENT wired the field in a route race last time out but think he’s going to make a stretch run with the turn back in distance. He could finish fastest of all. 3-RIVZONAROLL and 4-MCVICKER will be standing next to each other in the starting gate and could break on even terms. But both tend to run out of gas late and both seem better suited to shorter sprints.

It's been fun. Later