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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun October 13th, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Malibu Brad - 7-5 1 Ultimate Fighter - 4-1 7 Gray Mike - 8-1

The final card for the 2024 thoroughbred meet with 12 races and a lot of large fields. Kick it off with maidens here as 5-MALIBU BRAD should get the perfect trip in this spot. He gets pace to chase, likes the track and distance, and just needs to show a bit more finish. He's the most consistent of the bunch and should break through in here. 1-ULTIMATE FIGHTER will be winging it from the inside but stamina is the question for him. He's been better in his last couple and could get brave if left alone on the lead into the lane. 7-GRAY MIKE will need some pace to chase as he should be closing well late. He ran well in races 2,3, and 4 back and could pick up the pieces underneath.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Freedom Lass - 7-2 8 Star Wisher - 5-1

Giving the nod on the grass to 3-FREEDOM LASS in this spot in a move not typical for Boyce. This one comes off a claim at Louisiana Downs in August before heading our way. On the grass though and for these connections I expect she will be very tough. 8-STAR WISHER has the running style to rate and pounce. She ran well over this course in August and picks up Santos in the saddle once again. 10-SHE'S WANDAFUL scratched from a tougher spot on Thursday for this race. She stretches back out to two turns where she was a good third at this level three back.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Whole Lotta Lute - 5-2 1 Shaman Sez - 4-1 7 Quiero Dinero - 7-2

Pace makes the race and I really don't see any others aside from 4-WHOLE LOTTA LUTE making the top in here. He finds things a bit easier today as he comes out of a race where he tired inn the lane in his last. I expect he can clear, relax, and have more than enough left late. 1-SHAMAN SEZ will likely be chasing from the inside as he makes his first start in six weeks. He was a good winner two back and held his own against state-bred allowance runners in Minnesota in his most recent start. Look for him to stalk and try to pounce in the lane. 7-QUIERO DINERO was rallying late in her last and figures to be closing well once again in here. She gets Felix back aboard as he gave her a fine ride in that most recent start.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
11 Wicked Suprise - 6-1 2 River Redemption - 7-2 3 Auspicious Style - 5-2

There's little along the lines of early pace in this race which should benefit 11-WICKED SURPRISE today. He was game in his last as he made the lead and nearly stole the race. With the added 16th today he will have to look to relax out front but should be the right price. 2-RIVER REDEMPTION has won two of his last four, including the start where he ran down my top choice in his last. He gets a good inside draw once again but may not be getting the same amount of pace to chase ahead of him. 3-AUSPICIOUS STYLE comes in from California off an eight month layoff as he makes his return today. After a good 2023 campaign he has made just the one start on the year. He is working well toward the return and could be ready off the bench.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Uncaptured Warrior - 5-1 5 Went West - 3-1 7 King Anthony - 6-1

A good field of optional claimers in a race where there appears to be a likely contested pace upfront. If that's the case, 4-UNCAPTURED WARRIOR should be able to tuck in just behind the pace setters and look to get the jump on the closers. He was a sharp winner in his last and has won 3 of 4 at the distance. Expect a good effort at a square price. 5-WENT WEST is another with tactical speed as he likes this Hawthorne strip. Colon has ridden him well in the past and takes the return ride in here. 7-KING ANTHONY turns back to the sprint as he should move forwardly in here as well. Let's see how the 3yo does while facing older today.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Golden Bandit - 9-2 1 Battle Scars - 5-1 10 American Mayhem - 7-2

An excellent field in here with many in with a chance. There's only a couple with speed as I'm hoping 4-GOLDEN BANDIT can clear and make every call a winning one. He was the beaten favorite in his last couple and was favored over the like of stakes-place Tonka Warrior in those starts. He has ability and could steal in here. 1-BATTLE SCARS has won his last two as he look to rally late off a ground saving trip from the inside. Mojica has had an exceptional meet as well as Chris Block. 10-AMERICAN MAYHEM was entered in the Carey Memorial a couple of weeks ago but scratched out of that spot in favor of today's race. He has tactical speed as he will have to work a bit to get tucked in into the first turn.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Sharp Stick - 4-1 9 Simple Logic - 10-1 6 Professor Higgins - 15-1

The final turf race of the season as there's a little early pace along the inside but the majority of the speed is stuck on the far outside. 1-SHARP STICK was the beaten favorite on the main track in his last after winning on turf impressively two back. He has tactical speed and could get the perfect trip from the rail draw. 9-SIMPLE LOGIC has improved in his last three, getting moved up to second in an allowance test two back. He'll be a bit further off the early pace but can close well late. His issue is at times he has hung a bit in the stretch. 6-PROFESSOR HIGGINS is a longshot look as he has been sharp throughout the racing season. He's been hung a bit wide into the lane in his last couple but has shown the ability to uncork a strong late rally.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
10 Lost Sunset - 3-1 6 Written Consent - 4-1 11 Adiva - 6-1

Really only one in here that appears fast enough early to clear as 10-LOST SUNSET could look to repeat her most recent performance. She has speed, gets a great speed rider in E.T. aboard and likes the distance. With a good break today she should be clear immediately. 6-WRITTEN CONSENT was no match for Lost Sunset three back but has greatly improved her form in a pair of starts since. Look for her to track the leader early with hopes that she can wear her down late. 11-ADIVA ran a good enough race in her last as she chased the entire way and was a clear second. She picks up the bug girl in the saddle today and should provide some value at the windows.

Hawthorne Race 10

Post Time 6:22 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Millard's Smile #6 Euclid Avenue #2 Cantstealmythunder

A little more pace to chase is the key for 3-MILLARD'S SMILE as he comes off a race in his last where there was a lone speed runner who stole the race. With the chance of a bit more pace upfront to close into, he should be able to wear down the leaders in the lane.  6-EUCLID AVENUE is one with speed that I expect will try to clear and steal in here. The question is if he will have company early, but if loose he may never look back. 2-CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER almost got home in time in his last as he closed into a very slow pace. Felix rode that day and is back aboard for the new connections in here.

Hawthorne Race 11

Post Time 6:44 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Accelerating Babe - 3-1 2 Peggy's Way - 5-2 5 Tribest [ARG] - 6-1

With the likelihood of Peggy's Way trying to steal this and the potential for her to have company, I think 6-ACCELERATING BABE could get the trip from just off the pace. She ran a good second at this level in her last and gets Cohen back aboard. Expect her to rate and run on in the lane. 2-PEGGY'S WAY will be headed for the top under E.T. but has shown some stamina issues in the past. She does drop a couple of notches into this spot but is no gimme at a likely short price. 5-TRIBEST has been on the turf recently but ran some solid dirt races when looking to try to break her maiden. She gets the bug Slevinsky back aboard and should be closing well late.

Hawthorne Race 12

Post Time 7:06 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
10 Breaking News - 7-2 2 Johnny Up - 3-1 5 Christmas Present - 5-1

I don't mind the outside draw for 10-BREAKING NEWS here as he may be forced to rate which is what I'm hoping for from him. He has had an excellent season and Centeno has been a good fit in the saddle. Look for him to stalk early and close late. 2-JOHNNY UP will be closing from a bit further back as he gets an inside trip in here. Mojica gets the call today as this one was competitive against better when last here at the end of 2022. 5-CHRISTMAS PRESENT is as honest as they come. He has been very good all meet long and can't be dismissed.