Handicapper Tips & Picks

3-KRILL THE THRILL drops, turns back in distance, and puts blinkers back on. Should have something left for the stretch run. 5-MALIBU BRAD might be the most logical but he’s had five races at this level and he remains a maiden. He does have good speed, however, and has only one to beat to the lead. 1-ULTIMATE FIGHTER is probably the best of the speed. He usually starts running out of gas by midstretch but he did hold on to finish second versus similar two races back.

3-FREEDOM LASS could be an interesting runner. She’s an Illinois bred that hasn’t raced in Illinois since 2019. The majority of her career has been spent in southern Cal. But she was shipped to Louisiana Downs for last, dropped into a low level claimer against the boys and finished second. Her original trainer claimed her back from that race. The main knock I see is that her race in August was her first start since May and she had only one work since. 5-SHY SHY makes her local debut. Canterbury shipper has had four turf races and made noticeable improvement with each passing start. She beat a good allowance field in last. Figures prominently. . 2-CAT ATTACK drops into claimers. Speedy miss has been stopping badly but she is cutting back to her best distance. Might outlast them today.

5-DASH TO THE CASH meets his easiest field ever. He’s making only his third start of the year. He displayed unusual (for him) speed in last and even took the lead in midstretch. Gets the hot apprentice rider for this trip. Guessing he’ll run them down. 4-WHOLE LOTTA LUTE says catch me. She stopped badly in her first start against winners but she’s dropping a few levels for this and might not have to work so hard getting to the lead. 7-QUIERO DINERO will be coming late.  There should be plenty of speed to set up for her. She has been in good form. Might finally get over the hump

2-RIVER REDEMPTION has been very good on the lawn. He’s had 12 races and won five of them while finishing in the money the other six. His versatility allows him to run well against any kind of pace. He’s the ideal $10k claiming turf horse. 3-AUSPICIOUS STYLE found an easy spot to make his local debut. California shipper hasn’t raced since February. He was meeting far tougher rivals for the last year. But they can run him in this starter because he was facing company easier than this late last winter. Very live this spot. 11-WICKED SUPRISE is likely to be sent right to the lead, despite starting from the 11 hole. Getting to the front from out there could cost him a lot of energy but he has shown stamina time and time again. Might not hang on long enough to win but think he’ll be there long enough to share.

Have to give 5-WENT WEST the nod. This highly consistent gelding finished out of the money (4^th) in last but he wasn’t beaten all that badly. He’ll be tracking the pace in this race. Could make amends with the drop in class. 2-LUNDBERG is another that has been the model of consistency this year. He had three wins and three seconds from his seven 2024 starts. Unlike top choice, going right for the lead is the name of his game. He could put away the rest of the speed and still have enough left to hold off Went West. 4-UNCAPTURED WARRIOR comes off possibly the best race of his career, or so his speed figures indicate. He’s not quite as quick as Lundberg but doesn’t come from quite as far back as Went West. Probably races in second or third in the early stages beg=fore moving up to engage in the last quarter.

This is an incredibly competitive race. I don’t know if I could leave out anybody if I were putting in a big horizontal wager but, with 12 horses likely to run, you would need some pretty deep pockets. Most in here have generated a speed figure in the middle to high 80s at least once and a few have even gone over 90. Obviously not every time but at least you know they are capable. So, who do I choose? I think it has to be 10-AMERICAN MAYHEM. I like his versatility; I like that he’s making his third start of the year (after winning his last by daylight) and I like that he’s done well at the distance. 14-TOWERING STORM is lightly raced compared to most in here but he won his first two races and narrowly lost to Another Mystery, who went on to win a graded-stakes quality stakes, in his last. The third-place finisher from that last race also went on to win his next start. 6-CALIBRATE intrigues me. It had been a long time since he ran on turf and he only managed two seconds from four grass starts. However, they thought enough of him early on to run him in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Futurity and last year he finished in the money in two graded stakes on dirt. 4-GOLDEN BANDIT, stablemate on Calibrate will likely get more action than his buddy. He won three of four races at similar distances, including the $100,000 Canterbury Derby last year. Would like the speedy 12-DRAMA CHORUS better if he had a better post. He might have to work too hard to get to the lead from far outside but he is certainly capable of wiring the field. He does have five wins at the distance.

With all the speed in this race you would think that the pace should set up perfectly for 8-ATKINS. He finished second in his last two at this level. However, he’ll be utilizing a rider that has yet to win a race. Obviously the 10-pound weight allowance he gets because of that allowance could be a factor but it’s hard to give a strong vote of confidence to a rider that has yet to win. Slim pick. 4-WILLIE BIRD could turn out to be the best of the speed. This lightly-raced 3-year-old makes his first start since his maiden win in late July but he has continued to train well. 5-RUSSIAN TO WIN jumps in class but he did win his last two and four of eight this year. Like top pick, he has the kind of running style that will be favored by all the early speed in this race. He’s another that can surprise late.

There are no standouts in this race but most in here seem to have a legitimate chance to win…if they can unleash their best effort. Guess I’ll go with 2-EVEN THE WIND but it certainly isn’t a strong pick. He’s beaten some of these rivals while some of them have beaten him. It’s all going to come down to the trip. 4-C’EST MAGNIFIQUE comes off his best race in over a year. But now it’s been over two months since his last start. However, he has been training forwardly during that time. Guessing he’ll attack late. 8-MENDELSSOHN JOY and 6-PROFESSOR HIGGINS could both be overlooked in the wagering but both are capable of closing quickly.

10-LOST SUNSET could be left alone on the lead. She wired the fields the last three times she raced against claimers. There’s a good chance that will happen again today. Both 6-WRITTEN CONSENT and 9-ORNERY ANGEL ride two-race win streaks. Both own good tactical speed and both are likely to be tracking the pace set by top choice. 11-ADIVA drops one more time. She just finished second in a slightly better field. Figures prominently with these.

6-EUCLID AVENUE drops to an easier level. Speedy runner didn’t handle turf in last but he had been racing competitively against better runners prior to last. Think he’ll be tough with the drop to the right level. 3-MILLARD’S SMILE was claimed back by the top barn after losing him three races back. Late mover gets a legitimate pace ahead of him. Can slip by late. 2-CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER was narrowly defeated the last two times he raced at this level. Got claimed from last. Might get it done for his new barn.

They could have a tough time catching 2-PEGGY’S WAY. She’s been competitive versus better but she’s dropping to the right level and getting a rider who loves the lead. Recent grad 4-SWEET SMILA had some decent races early on but has kicked into another gear since switching to Mojica in the irons. 6-TRIBEST drops to the right level, cuts back in distance, and moves from turf to dirt. She owns decent speed but think she’ll be coming on late in the game.

10-BREAKING NEWS can win the final start of the meet. He’s been the model of consistency this year and the only time he finished out of the money (4^th) in his last nine starts was when he was taking on $25k claimers. The pace will be ideal. He can edge by late. 5-CHRISTMAS PRESENT wired the field in a route race last time out but think he’s going to make a stretch run with the turn back in distance. He could finish fastest of all. 3-RIVZONAROLL and 4-MCVICKER will be standing next to each other in the starting gate and could break on even terms. But both tend to run out of gas late and both seem better suited to shorter sprints.

It's been fun. Later