Handicapper Tips & Picks

While capable there are some question marks on projected heavy favorite, #3 BOSTONTONIAN after a stakes win dropping into starter allowance company and with added ground in this third start. 

#6 PURSE THIEF returns from a strong, productive allowance at KYD and draw outside of the projected pacesetters including BOSTONTONIAN should look for first run. #7 DBOOK should fall into a similar tracking trip. They must improve on numbers to compete with today's group though has been away for three months allowing some maturity time if that move forward is available could show it here. 

Another capable yet questionable #1 COLONIAL ROSE (weak/no value) as the expected heavy favorite. The connections drop to the MCL level after the drop in circuit coming off the layoff last month at HS Indy. She has run to the top of her ability, numbers that fit on par, though also figures/efforts that lack any strong edge over some of today's rivals. 

#4 PLAY MAKER has experience around two turns and subtle drop in terms of par as she makes her second start of the cycle. She has turned in a forward "every other" pattern in the past to suggest she returns to a top effort today. 

#5 COPP turned in a B-/BTL effort on debut and should benefit from the start to IMPROVE with the STRETCH out with the added distance. They should have some pace to target especially with Calumet stablemate #1 HASTEN finding a post position change shifting outside in from the show finish last month when all out (NO_FINISH, GALLOP-) to hold for the minors at longer (81-1) odds. 

#2 SUCCESSFUL UNION also turned in a BTL effort on debut making a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ after a poor (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) start into a Slow early pace and appears some intent showing up with the circuit change and picking up F. Prat. 

#9 SPEECHLESS turned in a BTL effort with an EX in their August debut and some upside forced to RUSH before losing ground and not asked (NO_PUSH) late to suggest some upside off that race and returning right back in this spot with a rider change. #11 COCKTAILSNKRINGLE earned the lone "B" OptixGRADE in the field from their debut at ELP though did land in a lower par event that day. Some excuse could be made for the effort on 9/19 as they WASTED a lot of energy prerace and like the debut broke SLOG (and TROUBLE_S) showing a middle MOVE.

There are a lot of ways to land in a contentious finale and should see #10 CAN'T STOP WILLIS hold longer odds once again. They could also present another move forward noting progression race-to-race into this third start. Going back to August they projected to IMPROVE after showing sneaky run in their ELP debut and did just that with the speed figure and OptixGRADE jump for the second start last month - the 9/15 race already with a next out MSW winner Eglise, the only runner at the time of this analysis that has run back. 

#5 RAYMORE returns with a freshening and upside from their first two starts this season. He made his debut back in June racing GREEN and showed interest with a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ with overall visuals to suggest PREP and IMPROVE. With that upside, he was compromised with a legit EX - EXCUSE impacted by TROUBLE as well as rider TACTIC- something to noted as a rider change will be made for this race. 

#1 LADY XI comes into this race with buried form on par for this level to give a longshot look. She turned in a competitive race (B-) under similar conditions back on 7/11 and 8/9 races hidden between higher conditioned events including the 9/19 N3 race. There was not much in terms of an excuse for the effort two weeks ago though does return with added ground as well as S. Ellis back aboard, the win rider from May to suggest some posi intent.