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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat October 19th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Keeneland Race 4

Post Time 1:36 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 JACK'S TIME might not end up favored as projected given their connections and some of the "bigger names" in this field, despite arguably being deserving of that chalk role. JACK'S TIME was very impressive (B+) breaking his maiden on debut overcoming GREEN-ness and a poor start (TROUBLE_S) and forced to RUSH into a solid X_FLOW pace drawing clear and continued to GALLOP+ after the wire. That effort gave him a look despite the big hurdles stepping up to take on winners, graded stakes company and the circuit switch last month. With those factors of adversity he created one more acting up and very fractious in the GATE rearing up multiple times and was not checked out. It is encouraging with the two recorded local KEE works, an outside draw for a change and picking up L. Saez in this spot as they stretch out two turns for the first time. 

Keeneland Race 6

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Looking to get creative, #6 SAHALAT brings upside in this second start of the cycle and from a subtle trip against the dynamic in the 9/22 common race. On his best day, he has recorded figures on par and has shown class; recorded a B+ OptixGRADE with the MSW win in June as well as in the allowance back in August. 

#1 CAPE TRAFALGAR is worth a mention returning from a productive race in August at SAR freshened off that event and making a return to KEE. 

Keeneland Race 10

Post Time 4:48 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 HIGH BREEZE will be tested with the change in circuit though given a follow off a sneaky good BTL debut last month at LRL. She created adversity lunging out of the gate (TROUBLE_S) and checked while trying to recover making TWO_MOVES advancing again late and continued to GALLOP+ after the wire. 

Santa Anita Race 1

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

In a race where a case can be made for every runner in this field: #2 AFFAIR should sit under the radar while on a top effort. She showed run in her debut with TROUBLE last year and closed out 2023 on the SA opening day (12/26) with a legit EX - EXCUSE. The COLD signs along with a PREP returning from the layoff last out at DMR could suggest intent for this second start off the layoff and with M. Smith back aboard. 

Santa Anita Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 FEARLESS SOLDIER still holds "ship and win" bonus eligibility and intent in this second start out in California returning from the layoff. They should benefit from the return race in August while picking up a rider and class change to suggest further intent. 

Santa Anita Race 5

Post Time 5:02 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 TAISHAN returns to the $16k level where there were competitive back in July and with a freshening (and weight break) to suggest further intent. Their form returning this season for R. Baltas has remained consistent, fits on par and upgraded returning to SA from a WIDE trip last month as well. 

Santa Anita Race 6

Post Time 5:34 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This is a competitive race to give a look at some runners with buried form: #9 CRAZY CAVALIER recorded a B OptixGRADE on debut with the DQ and following that effort was stepped up to MSW at DMR racing in some "messy" events and logical to return to the MCL level of the competitive initial start; #11 OSAGE CREEK find the change in class for the first time and the DROP appears the right move based on their visuals. Number wise their effort over this course back in June fits on par with many of today's main players and more established runners.

Woodbine Race 3

Post Time 1:11 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 LION KINGDOM needs the right pace (and players the right number) to make his run and work a trip. They could find that here returning from a nice 69-day break and with buried form this season under similar conditions and over this preferred inner turf course. 

Woodbine Race 4

Post Time 1:43 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 SECRET SOUL posted a B OptixGRADE effort at this level back on 9/7 and buried with the 10/5 higher MCL race sitting on top off the pp's to hold value. #10 OUR LADY PEACE returns from a BTL effort on 9/21 compromised with TROUBLE playing a role in the outcome despite showing run from start to finish.