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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun October 20th, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 7:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 I Love My Captain - 6-5 2 Beautybythebeach - 8-1 6 Fox Valley Starlet - 3-1

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 7:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 One Trip Chip - 2-1 6 Mustang Danny - 6-1 3 Shady Maple Becker - 5-2

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 7:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Thebeautifulthings - 2-1 7 Wildcat Abby - 5-2 8 Little Miss Loie - 5-2

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 8:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Wegoforthefront - 2-1 2 Loulita - 5-2 3 Jack Vernon - 7-1

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 8:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 Kays In Charge - 6-5 2 Toughestofthetough - 3-1 9 What A Legacy - 7-2

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 9:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 I'll Decide - 6-5 7 Fox Valley Jericho - 4-1 3 Sleazyandincharge - 9-1

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 9:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Louise's Legacy - 1-1 5 Frontier Macho - 9-2 6 Sunburnt Silverado - 2-1

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 9:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Fox Valley Jasmine - 6-5 8 Fox Valley Millie - 12-1 4 Robintino - 3-1

Hawthorne Race 10

Post Time 10:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Dialogue - 7-5 5 Battlin Bob - 5-2 2 Dandy's Freedom - 5-1

Hawthorne Race 11

Post Time 10:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Rumbleinthevalley - 9-2 2 Radiant Diamond - 7-1 8 Simply Swan - 3-1

Hawthorne Race 12

Post Time 10:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Blazin Grace - 7-2 3 Deacon David - 10-1 9 Margs Buddy - 2-1

Hawthorne Race 13

Post Time 11:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Josie Rocksmyworld - 8-1 3 Julerica - 9-2 4 Tookadiveoffdipper - 3-1

Hawthorne Race 14

Post Time 11:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 La Rosa - 5-2 7 Marys Pretty Girl - 10-1 9 Drinking And Dream - 7-2
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun October 20th, 2024

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 7:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Fox Valley Starlet - 3-1 4 I Love My Captain - 6-5 2 Beautybythebeach - 8-1

6-FOX VALLEY STARLET-Game maiden winner in last

4-I LOVE MY CAPTAIN-Sharp last four; logical favorite

2-BEAUTYBYTHEBEACH-Don’t overlook these connections

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 7:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 One Trip Chip - 2-1 6 Mustang Danny - 6-1 1 Ally's Got Grit - 5-2

4-ONE TRIP CHIP-Major player every race

6-MUSTANG DANNY-Won Kadabra leg two starts back

1-ALLY’S GOT GRIT-Good rail speed if he stays flat

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 7:50 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Thebeautifulthings - 2-1 7 Wildcat Abby - 5-2 8 Little Miss Loie - 5-2

2-THEBEAUTIFULTHINGS-Won 6 of 7; only loss via break

7-WILDCAT ABBY-Might be the fastest off the gate

8-LITTLE MISS LOIE-Won last two at Hoosier

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 8:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Cash Money Twenty - 4-5 6 Fox Valley Pepper - 7-2 2 The Toddfather - 9-1

5-CASH MONEY TWENTY-Wins most races by daylight

6-FOX VALLEY PEPPER-Won ”Finale” leg last out

2-THE TODDFATHER-Wide trip at Hoosier in last cost him

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 8:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Talk About Valor - 20-1 8 Perlucky - 5-1 2 Loulita - 5-2

6-TALK ABOUT VALOR-Longshot today; monster here in the past

8-PERLUCKY-Might just cruise on the lead

2-LOULITA-Terrific form all year

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 8:50 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
8 Kays In Charge - 6-5 9 What A Legacy - 7-2 10 Unfailing Grace - 25-1

8-KAYS IN CHARGE-Won 7 of 9; 2nd in other two

9-WHAT A LEGACY-First-time hopples; looked good in qualifier

10-UNFAILING GRACE-Team often scores with longshots

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 9:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 I'll Decide - 6-5 1 Major Trip - 25-1 7 Fox Valley Jericho - 4-1

2-I’LL DECIDE-Takes the lead at will

1-MAJOR TRIP-Beware the longshot; trouble last two

7-FOX VALLEY JERICO-Won Finale leg 2 back thru DQ

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 9:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Louise's Legacy - 1-1 6 Sunburnt Silverado - 2-1 5 Frontier Macho - 9-2

1-LOUISE’S LEGACY-Just seems faster than the rest

6-SUNBURNT SILVERADO-Beat top pick in Kadabra leg last monet

5-FRONTIER MACHO-Might grab the early lead

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 9:50 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Fox Valley Jasmine - 6-5 4 Robintino - 3-1 7 Fox Valley Mygirl - 7-2

6-FOX VALLEY JASMINE-Versatility is the key

4-ROBINTINO-Getting good at the right time; won last two

7-FOX VALLEY MYGIRL-Duels for early lead

Hawthorne Race 10

Post Time 10:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Battlin Bob - 5-2 7 Dialogue - 7-5 2 Dandy's Freedom - 5-1

5-BATTLIN BOB-Rested and ready

7-DIOLOGUE-Won last Finale leg by five

2-DANDY’S FREEDOM-Lightly raced; won last two

Hawthorne Race 11

Post Time 10:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 Calderone - 5-1 1 Rumbleinthevalley - 9-2 8 Simply Swan - 3-1

3-CALDERONE-Ships from tougher meet

1-RUMBLEINTHEVALLEY-Speed from the rail

8-SIMPLY SWAN-Usually in the hunt

Hawthorne Race 12

Post Time 10:50 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Navy Steel - 4-1 9 Margs Buddy - 2-1 2 Blazin Grace - 7-2

6-NAVY STEEL-Speed needed last after 3 mos. Away

9-MARGS BUDDY-Sharp qualifier; ready for 2024 debut

2-BLAZIN GRACE-Chance if ready

Hawthorne Race 13

Post Time 11:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Tookadiveoffdipper - 3-1 8 Fox Valley Cayman - 9-2 1 Marshall Malone - 8-1

4-TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER-Speedy sort usually good here

8-FOX VALLEY CAYMAN-Third in last two

1-MARSHALL MALONE-Impressive qualifier with Lasix

Hawthorne Race 14

Post Time 11:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Admit - 9-1 9 Drinking And Dream - 7-2 1 Lauren Grace - 7-1

6-ADMIT-Meets easier; often competitive here

9-DRINKING AND DREAM-Won last two; can keep streak alive

1-LAUREN GRACE-Well played at Hoosier lately

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun October 20th, 2024

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Peter's Simulcast Plays

Keeneland Race 1

Post Time 12:00 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
6 List - 7-2 7 No Pardon - 5-2 1 Cat Pays the Toll - 5-1

Keeneland Race 2

Post Time 12:32 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Scottish Storm - 5-1 6 Not So Holy - 7-2 4 Air It Out - 9-2

Keeneland Race 3

Post Time 1:04 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
7 Lovely Emma - 7-2 8 Cheetah Lady - 4-1 2 Haut Les Coeurs - 6-1

Keeneland Race 4

Post Time 1:36 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
4 Mighty Madison - 6-5 1 Nay V Belle - 6-1 8 Tapit Jenallie - 4-1

Keeneland Race 5

Post Time 2:08 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
8 Six Kings - 5-1 2 Mikealicious - 7-2 1 Curlin Gunner - 4-1

Keeneland Race 6

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
12 Satin Blue - 3-1 11 Unhidden Gem [IRE] - 8-1 4 Hay Stack - 9-2

Keeneland Race 7

Post Time 3:12 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
7 Call Me Fast - 9-2 11 Raise Cain - 5-1 3 Guntown - 8-1

Keeneland Race 8

Post Time 3:44 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
9 Eternal Hope [IRE] - 4-1 10 Let'sbefrankbaby [AUS] - 8-1 12 Neecie Marie - 3-1

Keeneland Race 9

Post Time 4:16 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
4 All the Luck - 3-1 12 Banks - 6-1 9 Man of Mischief - 5-2

Mountaineer Park Race 1

Post Time 6:00 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
7 The Honorable Eye - 7-2 1 Inspector Penny - 8-1 5 Luminous Ruler - 3-1

Mountaineer Park Race 2

Post Time 6:25 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
5 Machen Mayhem - 9-2 7 Xpensive Princess - 6-1 4 My Lucky Deia - 3-1

Mountaineer Park Race 3

Post Time 6:50 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
7 Grand Rozzo - 7-2 6 Cooler King - 5-2 9 Shammah - 9-2

Mountaineer Park Race 4

Post Time 7:15 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Icy Storm - 3-1 9 Oro de Moro Moro - 9-2 6 Escape Velocity - 5-1

Mountaineer Park Race 5

Post Time 7:40 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
3 Raceday Attire - 5-2 4 O Shaughesey - 6-1 8 Kingdom Queen - 5-1

Mountaineer Park Race 6

Post Time 8:05 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
5 Princess Halime - 8-5 2 Thunder Buggy - 8-1 4 Mind Your Own - 6-1

Mountaineer Park Race 7

Post Time 8:30 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
8 Fat Daddy - 9-2 1 Bubba Grump - 8-1 4 Exalted Joy - 4-1

Mountaineer Park Race 8

Post Time 8:55 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
4 Magic Mountain - 6-1 1 In Honor of Autism - 3-1 10 Lazaretto - 8-1
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun October 20th, 2024

Download as PDF

Emily's Analysis

Keeneland Race 4

Post Time 1:36 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 HOME GAME finds positive changes and timing looking to get back on track here today. She broke her maiden on debut professionally and picked up the 8/17 win around two turns at ELP though the type of effort that suggested a REGRESS. That timing played a role on 9/21 though also the class/distance where today's SHORTER and DROP from stakes company should move her up and find her competitive.

#1 NAY V BELLE also finds a reset returning from the CT Oaks (G2) in her most recent start and to regain confidence back in allowance company off the two month break. The early pace has the Sun Contention to assist her trip like it did back in June with the place finish at CD under similar par/purse. 

Keeneland Race 5

Post Time 2:08 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Value is required with the 8-1 ML representing fair odds as well on #4 CAT IN TIME. Number wise they must pick it up (where that price compensation comes into play) with others that have at this point run "faster" races. With that said, CAT IN TIME is not far off and racing here as a lightly raced 4yo that can still hold forward potential. He found the circuit switch the right move breaking their maiden dominantly (B+) at Hawthorne to suggest they can take the step up to compete against winners. They did not have a full chance for that potential on 9/26 with poor rider TACTIC- and to their credit raced in TRAFFIC before making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW in the place finish behind the pacesetting winner, Forge In Fire. 

Santa Anita Race 6

Post Time 5:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 AURELIAN MAN will be tested again for stamina though finds a favorable change in class with the DROP to move up and off sneaky form starting off their form cycle back in August with a BTL TROUBLE+ trip earning a B OptixGRADE despite the 5th place result back on 8/1.

#1 MOODY JIM was given an EX with the trip just two weeks ago and NO_PUSH late along with the quick return to their familiar surface can project a return to their usual self here. A form reversal is required for #8 EVENING SUN one that takes another drop in class and two month break since the layoff return in August at DMR. 

Santa Anita Race 8

Post Time 6:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#11 SCHILFLIED trained like runner leading up to their debut back in August at DMR though might not have been mentally prepared on the day acting up, fractious in the GATE prior to the start. In terms of further visuals, the change to ONE_TURN could suite their physicality and form should hold as it has form others going forward from that August event. Something to note for the winner, Thought Process one that shares a common running line with #12 CAITLIN FEVER returning to maiden company from the stakes event last month. 

#2 KITTY MARREN holds upside as she makes her second career start. On debut, she had TROUBLE_S showing a middle MOVE X_FLOW in a race with minimal change in running order with the top two finishers racing forward throughout finishing together and clear at the wire. 

Woodbine Race 6

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#11 CONN SMYTHE turned in a strong BTL/B- effort in their debut three weeks ago earning a follow here. The race began after a DELAY and SLOG before a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ in the 4th place result.

Woodbine Race 10

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 LIL BIT GANGSTA recorded their most recent win last July when in for the $25k tag and returns to that level for the first time since. He has held his form this year and numbers that fit with today's par. In addition he presents upside coming off an EX - EXCUSE last out (9/29) with the legit TROUBLE+ as well as poor rider TACTIC- something of note with a rider change and L. Salles back aboard, a rider that has success going back to their 2022 season.