Handicapper Tips & Picks

#9 EVOCATION has things on her side in this second start back off the layoff. The change to MCL company has been the right move for her with form and figures on par. Her runstyle should fit today's race shape and can even show a little more tactical speed noting the SLOG while racing under poor WEATHER (heavy rain) conditions. #8 RUNAWAY KITTEN taking the class drop should move up naturally though does have to answer for the surface switch and the placement to compete rather than move along. 

A case can be made her with some upside on #3 FOXY ZORRA however does not present value at the assigned 9-2 ML something to upgrade/downgrade at post time with live odds. Value (or lack of) noted on #10 ROMANTIC DANCER after the the middle MOVE and NO_FINISH under similar conditions at 16-1 last out. 

#5 WEE BIT O MISCHIEF holds some of her better races around two turns and those efforts fit with today's par. She will make her second start of this cycle coming off a show finish behind an open length pacesetting flow winner called Lucy Got Game and flattered with place finisher, Ladan coming back to win in their next start. The front wraps were added that day coming off the bench and something to look for here on race day. #9 YES TO CHAMPAGNE fits as the favorite on the class drop a move that should put her where she can compete something she has struggled with since facing the higher level allowance/graded stakes company since her MCL win back in May. 

#4 CAROLO RAPIDO turned in a sneaky BTL effort last month in the Super Derby and tough to dismiss those visuals as they return in a reasonable spot to compete. Their trip began with adversity (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and made a middle BURST continued to CLOSE ground and competitive (B-) despite the running line and 6th place outcome. Their prior form and figures fit on par and validate the last race visuals. 

As far as the W. Ward pair, #8 SHOOTOUTTHELIGHTS could have the edge over #2 TOP GUN GIRL especially with the return to the turf. She is drawn outside again and perhaps not the full issue in the April allowance when returning from the layoff and looked to need the race not mentally in the game reluctant to load in the GATE. That 4/18 allowance was also the return for #4 L J'S EMMA one that turned in a B/BTL effort in the show finish and can contend with a repeat effort here.

#6 LAURA'S CHARM turned in the same B- OptixGRADE as rival #3 OEUVRE (ML favorite) when the two ran against each other in the stakes here at Hawthorne back in July. LAURA'S CHARM had a big look on the day showing up for connections that had her well-spotted and sprinting on the turf where she returns to those conditions for today's race

#6 BOURBONONAHOLIDAY turned in a BTL effort with a legit EX - EXCUSE in their debut and presents upside in this second start. They checked after making a RUSH showing a middle MOVE and sneaky CLOSE to support back under similar conditions. 

#3 EMPIRE'S TREAT recorded a B OptixGRADE under similar MOC conditions with the 8/24 effort. The connections stepped up in their next start and despite the 6th place finish earlier this month put in a strong late CLOSE something that should translate here looking at the Plot and Large Square. #8 ALL MY TOMORROWS finds a change in class though a lateral change off some prior starts that and the needed drop from the 2022 juvenile season. Coming back this year she had to give up a lot of recency (684-days) and in both return races ran X_FLOW presenting a subtle upgrade here. 

This is a competitive event for the level and many making the changes to this claiming condition looking to move up and compete. #7 WICKED MERCURY being one of those runners coming in from the OC N1X conditions and has been consistent recording B/B- OptixGRADE and numbers that fit here. Current form also stacks up despite some recent gate issues (SLOG) turned in a BTL effort on 9/28 with adversity (TRAFFIC, TROUBLE, MOVE) in running playinga role in the outcome. 

#9 FIELD HOCKEY returns off the 52-day freshening and back under conditions when competitive back in May. The connections used a similar race-to-race pattern with the class drop and appears the right level for their abilities and to work a trip from the outside in this field/distance. Value should hold for the connections and recent finishing positions something required with the pattern of layoff lines. 

#2 SARAH'S DANCER comes back after three months and from the TROUBLE trip against a higher OC class back in July. While giving up recency has some concerns she should appreciate the move back into claiming company and does not take a big drop off the layoff that could suggest concern facing N3 company for the first time.