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Wed October 30th, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Churchill Downs Race 1
Post Time 12:00 PM CST
#2 HARLEEZY return to the conditions of a competitive effort back on 9/12 with intent. On the day they were compromised X_FLOW and should have pace to target given the complexion of this field including #1 RIVER IN EGYPT with the rail, #3 CAWKAB, #4 DRIP D'ORO and #5 BERNIN HOT coming off a front running win last out for the HOT barn during the KEE meet to create some vulnerabilities as the projected favorite here.
Churchill Downs Race 2
Post Time 12:29 PM CST
A competitive race with alternatives outside of ML favorite #6 JUJUBEE and even #5 ALL THE LUCK taking closer to a lateral move showing up in this event:
#4 COMING IN HOT makes their second start off the layoff and first start in for the MCL tag to present upside with that change and in this field. #2 CROOKED BULLET also finds that change and appears the right move pairing C+ OptixGRADES lacking improvement in that class department, though did show figures progression.
The change in class appeared the right move for #1 ASLEEP AT EIGHT back on 9/12 though the timing perhaps less than ideal wheeling back in just a week coming out of a tougher, productive MSW event at KYD.
The class change could be closer to a lateral move for #3 PAKULA showing up for their second start and upgraded from the CD debut showing run with adversity (RUSH, TRAFFIC, MOVE, TROUBLE) and physically gave a positive PRERACE+ appearance.
Churchill Downs Race 3
Post Time 12:58 PM CST
#6 HALINA'S FORTE will look to rebound coming off an EX - EXCUSE in the Dogwood (G3) last month at KEE. She showed she can compete at this often tricky, shorter 5.5f distance keying off the Galway Stakes win over the summer.
Churchill Downs Race 4
Post Time 1:27 PM CST
#6 WE HEAR YOU projected to move up with the STRETCH out in distance something she will find here for this third start. She will also find a third jockey and a reasonable change given the TACTIC- coming off the layoff just about three weeks ago.
#11 HUIXTLA caught a live, productive race on debut at CD back in June and given a flow upgrade, X_FLOW before losing ground and NO_PUSH following the NO_FINISH.
Churchill Downs Race 5
Post Time 1:57 PM CST
#6 BETTERING returns under similar conditions to the 9/27 event when given a look on the day. He turned in a solid effort given a game winner, the poor start (SLOG/TROUBLE_S) and WEATHER conditions along with the rider dropping the stick coming off the turn at a crucial point in running. #8 BYE BYE LIAM exits that same 9/27 common event and one that does not present much in terms of value though could get the right stalking trip and first run sitting off #4 EXTRA HALO and #7 SPURRIER.
The change in class is closer to a lateral move moving up #3 STOP THE SPREAD on this circuit. Their tactical speed looking to sit a similar trip to BETTERING and those runners looking to get first run on closer #5 HOPPIN JOHN.
Churchill Downs Race 6
Post Time 2:26 PM CST
This is a competitive event and willing to give a look to #11 SANT' ANTIMO in this second start off the layoff and subtle class DROP. They have been competitive under similar conditions and trip wise that is something to settle in running from the outside post in this murky race shape though should hold plenty of price compensation given the connections and recent running lines.
Churchill Downs Race 7
Post Time 2:55 PM CST
There are no major knocks on #2 SONHADOR as the listed morning line favorite in this spot. She turned in a BTL effort and B OptixGRADE in her debut last November and came back with similar earning a B at ELP off the layoff and a B- OptixGRADE around two turns in September.
Churchill Downs Race 8
Post Time 3:25 PM CST
This is a race worth getting creative in as ML favorite #9 BRITERDAYZAHEAD comes into this race off three favorable trips and could find a different dynamic here (#8 LOVE THE NEST to keep them honest on the drop) opening the door to an upset.
#6 VULCAN makes their second start of the cycle and upgraded off the 10/9 trip and poor TACTIC- making an early WIDE MOVE X_FLOW and some positive intent off that trip picking up a rider change. #1 SANTA CRUISER also from that same 10/9 common race and also less than ideal TACTIC- returns with a rider change though perhaps more obvious of the two given the race result.
Churchill Downs Race 9
Post Time 3:55 PM CST
#4 GOLDBRICK has some hurdles returning here in a accomplished group. His current work series is tough to ignore (was in hand working 59 and change best over a rival, a very sharp work) and overall upside as a lightly raced runner. He showed thus far a runner with ability that showed progression race to race with the season ahead of him before the layoff with the B+ OptixGRADE MSW win. That win recorded back in January at OP early in his sophomore season to suggest with maturity he could still have more improvement available.
Churchill Downs Race 10
Post Time 4:24 PM CST
#3 MO HOPE turned in a B OptixGRADE at this level moving up with the change in class on 6/5 and with a sneaky subtle trip WASTED a lot of energy on 6/21 projected to IMPROVE off that effort. Things did not go as planned with almost three months before the September return and with another freshening the connections should have them placed for a top effort here.