Handicapper Tips & Picks

Both E. Ganbat runners can be upgraded under today's conditions: #6 MONGOLIAN GOLD recorded a top figure over today's DMR course and distance back in July in MSW company and caught X_BIAS in their most recent start at SA - the rider change back to A. Cedillo suggest further intent; #3 MONGOLIAN MAX returns fresh and to the main track where they find some class relief from prior starts in maiden company and subtle trips in those events. 

Intent appeared in play for #2 NEWS AT TEN when they showed up back in August under today's conditions turning in a BTL effort in that show finish. They were downgraded at the mile in the following start and should be fit coming back off a WIDE trip earlier this month at the longer SA sprint distance. 

#6 OSCAR JOY turned in a sneaky good B- OptixGRADE effort with the 6th place finish, an impacted outcome due to poor TACTIC- creating TROUBLE and still made a strong MOVE and GALLOP+ after the wire. 

#1 GOING DEEP holds the edge on class with competitive efforts in MSW company taking on the others that have run for a tag, excluding FTS #3 KAPULA RIDE. 

#5 CO HEART also makes the change from MCL to MSW though closer to a lateral move shifting to take on statebred company. She has shown progression race to race earning an IMPROVE on debut and BTL show finish earlier this month at KEE. Based on her physicality she might still require more ground/STRETCH worth noting. 

#2 SOPHISTICATE projected to move up with the STRETCH out in distance and did just that on 8/2 with the BTL show finish. She has continued to hold her form and recorded similar figures and a similar off the pace runstyle, perhaps the hesitation as the favorite. 

#6 SPANISH CARA comes into this race with sneaky form - she turned in a BTL in her local debut with the EX - EXCUSE back in July and had a less than ideal ride (TACTIC-) from the rail though given a Flow Upgrade (VF early/late) playing a role in the outcome. 

A case can be made for both N. Drysdale fillies: #3 INTERPLAY has the route experience a subtle flow upgrade and return to A. Fresu the rider of the CLOSE show finish back on 8/24 to suggest intent; #4 CALLIN DANA takes on some older rivals and will get a chance to STRETCH back out in distance for the first time since the WIDE trip (and PRERACE+) last summer in the Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes. 

Not really #2 SPEED GRAZY about anyone in this field defaulting to the projected favorite looking to pick up the win belated win at this level and should not have any excuses here. 

#1 WINDRIBBON will have to deal with the stretch out in distance and while they would be upgraded on the TURF their current (buried) form, figures and class fit with this field.

#8 MUSCLED should be worth getting creative with in here coming back to make a belated second start. They were given an EX - EXCUSE on debut (VSLOG MOVE) and off the visuals to suggest they could be given a look back under similar conditions, those conditions appear here. 

#4 BROSKI will get a lot of attention for the connections here in their local debut and intent does appear in play. They have trained fine (worked in a team with KING OF GOSFORD and SIENNOIS their stablemates racing later in the stakes feature) and steadily for this race to give an honest showing, would not be surprised if they wind up favored. 

O'Neill comes in with a pair including ML favorite #1 VIDEO REVIEW one that moved up at longer odds last out and did set an honest pace, though did also NO_FINISH for a HOT barn and value concerns in their assigned role; #2 CANO FOR THE WIN recorded a B BTL effort on 8/24 and some excuses earlier this month wheeling back today on shorter rest where they can improve and transfer their form with the change in surface. 

P. Miller also with a pair in this race and the progressive #7 CURVINO likely to again hold the edge over #6 GAME WARRIOR the two exiting the 10/5 common race with VIDEO REVIEW. 

Playing against #1 BARTHOLDY as the expected favorite coming off a pair of top efforts on shorter rest and some regression could be present in this spot. In addition to the big figure and dominant win, they were aided by the LONE trip (following a RUSH) and Slow early and Very Slow late pace earlier this month at SA. 

LET IT RIDE STAKES: 

This is a competitive feature event and already noted the two D'Amato runners in this spot: #10 KING OF GOSFORD finds a DROP from graded stakes company and number wise has remained consistent to validate their role as the favorite. Stablemate #2 SIENNOIS has yet to run as "fast" though really has hey to run a "bad" race and should have pace to target in here.

#7 TAKE ME TO CHURCH could battle for favoritism given the connections and coming out of the NYRA circuit to face west coast turf horses and fit on par for this group.

#3 SINE QUA NON is value in this field and upside as a lightly raced sophomore. Going back to last year as a juvenile, they showed run on debut X_FLOW presenting as a ROUTER and returned with a BTL effort in late December picking up the MSW last month. They could continue to take a step forward and should be fit with confidence off the sprint win and in strong hands with J. Rosario aboard. 

#8 AMERICAN GLORY is worth a mention at longer odds and upside with the rider change following the pair of TACTIC- efforts since their MSW win over this course and distance earning a strong figure back on 7/27. Where the "trip" upgrades AMERICAN GLORY on 9/27 it could downgrade #4 HEART HEADED going out for a HOT barn and catching the track BIAS. 

A competitive finale where "pace should make the race" here and on the front end the edge siding with #2 HONEYMOON SUITE. Should they find pace pressure, a track profile that plays against early speed and/or lack a top effort that can open the door for a runner from off the pace. While #4 ROGUE SON looks logical in that role, they lack value and any edge over their preferred rivals #1 KAHUNA MAGIC and #8 EREBUS (value) in this event.