Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 SKINNER will give up recency returning from the long layoff at the same time the placement to return on the big weekend of racing suggest intent. SKINNER fits on class, speed and should get enough pace for his tracking runstyle looking at the Plot. The distance change to the extended sprint is a further positive for a horse that has shown limitations in the past at longer/two turns distances. 

In terms of early speed, #1 VLAHOS should look to be the controlling speed from the rail and as they make their second start off the layoff. His return last month could have been a bit more encouraging, though to his credit did show a middle MOVE following the SLOG and has worked since. #5 RED FLAG is accomplished at today's condition and distance and fits on that front though does find a higher race par than the event he won with a favorable TACTIC+ back in September. 

#7 GRATEFUL MY LOVE is not in this race just "taking a shot" she turned in a strong BTL effort making a CLOSE X_BIAS and a strong GALLOP+ all around visuals to suggest she has some ability and a move forward is not out of the question to step up in this field. 

#9 IN THE AIR TONIGHT returns to statebred company and tough to knock any of her races under similar restricted company. She has consistently shown class, speed on par and her runstyle fits today's race shape - assuming a fair racing surface something to follow early on in the meet and on the card even with a small sample of races. 

Love to see one of the stronger betting races on the undercard and a competitive field of juveniles lining up in this group. Tough to knock the 9-2 lukewarm morning line favorite #1 SABERTOOTH too much in that role and one that has been consistent exiting a BTL effort in the DMR Juvenile Turf (G3) and following that up with the B/BLANKET finish in the Zuma Beach (G3) last month the effort to suggest he is not just a bridesmaid type that anyone just reading pp's not taking the time to watch races could fall into that narrative.

The DMR Juvenile Turf (G3) being a common race puts some form to #5 SCIPIO with SABERTOOTH coming back to compete from that event - the two both earning B OptixGRADE. SCIPIO turned in a strong effort all things considered as the trip was less than ideal from start to finish and upgraded all around especially with the presence of F. Prat aboard. 

Exiting the KEE meet, #13 TEST SCORE can be upgraded as one of a few winners for G. Motion, a barn that raced on the COLD side. TEST SCORE picked up his maiden win last month though one that is proven in graded stakes company going back to August at SAR while still a maiden for barn taking a more liberal than conservative approach. His earned C+ OptixGRADE was in line with #3 CAVALLO BAY one that might not hold the double digit ML odds given the connections. Some upside can be projected exiting the Bourbon (G2) when they WASTED a lot of energy prerace and carried to a TRAFFIC (albeit PLODDY) trip.  

Tough to knock #3 IMMERSIVE as she has done everything that has been asked of her and holds a win at the G1 level at today's route distance. Her consistency and tactical ability position her well in this race though again will take on another tough task. 

In terms of the Japanese pair, #9 AMERICAN BIKINI will gather the attention of the two though will not dismiss #6 OTOMENA SHACHO one that has caught my eye in the morning at DMR and appears to have talent and sitting on a peak effort. 

#10 SCOTTISH LASSIE was dominant in the outcome of the Frizette (G1) winning by open lengths with a favorable (TACTIC+) trip though appeared to be all out and if so could be up against it in this field and vulnerable in the role of the favorite as projected by the ML, though might not be by race day. #2 SNOWYTE was favored in the Frizette (G1) as a maiden and comes into this race looking for that first career win. While a clear place behind SCOTTISH LASSIE she took a lot of dirt racing inside after a SLOG and overall still presents upside and has looked well in the works coming into this race. 

A full field of some quality runners, though #1 LAKE VICTORIA is a massive standout in this group. She is legitimate in the role of the assigned favorite and a major contender with her above this field in every category. 

There is value in this field with some knocks on the first and second ML favorites in this race: #1 EAST AVENUE was dominant on debut (B+) and freshened made his graded stakes debut in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) a winning one, however did so with the assist of the course profile and the HOT barn during the meet. The knocks on #10 CHANCER MCPATRICK is more from a trip standpoint as he checks the boxes on speed figures and class. The outside post can be a hurdle to overcome as he will do something new for this race running first time at the two-turn distance. 

#3 HILL ROAD is a bit of a "wild card" with the hurdles making his local and dirt debut while looking to take another step forward at the same time. With that said, he has caught the eye in the morning and looks very comfortable on the dirt. He trains excellently changing leads on cue (something he did not do on the turf) and is very, very fit for the distance. There are no questions on those fronts and will be just a test if he measures up at this level. 

Prat sticking and departing #7 GAMING should hold value and given the preference of the B. Baffert runners and perhaps will be sent off as the longer of that set. GAMING is already a G1 winner over the DMR main track and along with each start has shown progress. Like others in here he will stretch out to the two turns for the first time, though from a physical standpoint should appreciate the STRETCH out in distance. 

The potential vulnerabilities and at the least lack of value on both EAST AVENUE and CHANCER MCPATRICK the two runners coming in from Japan #8 SHIN BELIEVE and #9 ECORO AZEL could position themselves as serious contenders. Both stood out in their wins recorded B+ OptixGRADES to suggest they have a level of class and class that merits a look in this group with further intent making the trip. 

In terms of #5 JONATHAN'S WAY he showed a lot of class given a rare A- OptixGRADE for his debut win and that class carried with B+ winning the Iroquois (G3) however on speed figures, he will be tested to step up with a group that has run faster recorded numbers. Number wise #4 FEROCIOUS recorded one of the higher debut figures at the time going back to August at SAR though has failed in the two next starts to pair or improve off that initial start. 

Both runners exiting the Summer (G1) at WO merit respect in this race: The winner #11 NEW CENTURY was dominant (B+) with every bit of adversity (BTL) and showed a lot of class and gears (TWO_MOVES) to win; #4 AL QUDRA also with TROUBLE adversity following the SLOG turned in a strong B effort on the day and has come out of the race well catching the eye in his KEE works since.

 #13 HENRI MATISSE has made a positive appearance in the A. O'Brien group on the track at DMR and should handle today's mile distance, something he has yet to have the opportunity to run in the races overseas.

With AL QUDRA in the race W. Buick will shift to #12 AOMORI CITY one that must step up coming out of a common race behind rivals HENRI MATISSE and #7 SEAGULLS ELEVEN back in September. In terms of the rider assignment, both horses are live according to C. Appleby and cannot ride both, something that will give price compensation on AL QUDRA. 

#14 TENACIOUS LEADER parked well outside should be well compensated on the board and coming off the 6th place outcome in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) and effort that can be upgraded as they can IMPROVE showing more run than the line and finishing position suggests. 

TRU CASH was a heavy favorite before breaking at the start last out. Makes amends here. SHADY MAPLE ALSTAR has been solid in the last five. Figures to be right there once again. LOUS MANDALORIAN can be tough but recent breaking issues a concern.

Really only need to focus on CALYPSO MOON here. Seemingly a free spot in your Pick 5 plays.

Maybe now is the time for FOX VALLEY JULIAN as he upset GORGEOUS BIG GUY last out for his first win of the year. Peaking when it counts?

It would seem to be a two horse race in here, but WHISKEY LOU is truly a standout as he has won every start this year when not in the second tier. The race for place could be a good one between FOX VALLEY TIEGEN and PEEKABOO SAL.

HYPEYOURBESTIEUP was dominant last time out. Figures to repeat. SHES BROOKES STAR was second in that spot, but was also two second back. FOX VALLEY SADIE may play it strategically as she looks to get points to qualify for the final.

GUITAR MAN is another heavy favorite who will be very tough. The outside draw does leave things open a bit. FOX VALLEY KODIAK may send from the inside and try to steal which FOX VALLEY DURHAM picks up the pieces late.

The inside and outside both should be tough as LOUS PRIVATE EYE and JEWELS FOR CHAMP figure to take action. MOPPIES MOOSS is the sleeper if you get that 10-1 M/L

MARSHALL MALONE has some ability and now just needs to pull it all together. Second Lasix, Seekman in the bike, and the class drop could all lead to the victory.

A repeat of the last two starts will put DEPUTY DAWG right there once again. Just needs a bit more for the score. Look for KEY INGREDIANT to rate and rally in the lane.

5-SHADY MAPLE ALSTAR-Won last 2 Dygert legs

6-TRU CASH-Broke in last as odds-on favorite

8-LOUS MANSALORIAN-Won 11 of 27

3-CALYPSO-2^nd in last two B. Dygert legs

2-DEJOMA-Just 3^rd in similar

5-ALLY BABA-Best gets her close

2-GORGEOUS BIG GUY-Won 9 of 10 this year

5-FOX VALLEY JULIAN-Provided lone loss of top pick this year

4-NEGOTIATOR-Adds to plentiful early pace of the race

3-WHISKEY LOU-Lost only one of 12 this year

7-PEEKABOO SAL-Has a case of seconditis in 2024

2-FOX VALLEY TIEGEN-Game winner over similar

7-HYPEYOURBESTIEUP-Might be in control from start to finish

3-NO WORDS NEEDED-Finishes fastest of all

1-FOX VALLEY SADIE-Beat top choice 2 races back

8-GUITAR MAN-Good enough to overcome outside post

2-FOX VALLEY KODIAK-2^nd last two legs of Carey

3-ENRICO PALAZZO-Leonard did well with him downstate

4-ADALECIA-Barely lost last 2 Peachy legs

1-DANDY’S MS SWIFTY-Meets a slightly easier crew tonight

3-CHICKABELL-Chance if she recovers last year’s form

7-FIRST OF HER NAME-Has a win vs. similar

11-FOX VALLEY TASHA-Chance despite 2^nd tier

1-LOUS PRIVATE EYE-Slight edge; Casey chose this one

9-JEWELS FOR CHAMP-Finishes fast but often breaks

2-LITTLE CHIPPER-Seeks to lead throughout

1-MYSTERY DRAGON-Drops and post position relief

6-MARSHALL MALONE-Dropper gets 2^nd Lasix

5-SKEETER S-Shipper takes needed class drop

8-DEPUTY DAWG-Second last two this level

4-KEY INGREDIANT-Drop of some help

1-ASHLEE’S SILVER GUY-Chance if he saves ground