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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat November 9th, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 7:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 Scorecard Dandy - 5-2 10 Pattycake Mooss - 20-1 5 Fox Valley Leah - 5-2

A challenging race to open the night. SCORECARD DANDY has been in tough much of the year. She raced well here last week and may benefit from a closing trip. PATTYCAKE MOOSS could be a sleeper in this spot. She's consistent and will be overlooked from the outside. FOX VALLEY LEAH was a good winner here last week. She could get a great trip from the pocket once again.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 7:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Sunburnt Silverado - 5-2 5 Louise's Legacy - 2-1 1 One Trip Chip - 9-1

So hard to split these two but SUNBURNT SILVERADO may benefit more from the larger field compared to LOUISE'S LEGACY just based on her style. There should be a more contested pace early in here which will benefit the closing stride of SUNBURNT SILVERADO. LOUISE'S LEGACY has found the board in all ten starts on the year and can be expected to again tonight. It's just a matter of if he shows speed and faces pace pressure early. ONE TRIP CHIP is the sleeper in this spot. He was a good winner two back and posted a solid effort last out. If he leaves and backs things down on the front end he could easily hang around for a piece late.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 7:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Kays In Charge - 5-2 1 Lous Avalon - 7-1 9 What A Legacy - 3-1

KAYS IN CHARGE has just been so consistent this  year. She draws favorably and should get a great trip with the other pace just to her inside. LOUS AVALON battled the entire way in her last. She seems to be improving and benefits from the rail draw. Trotting hopples were added to WHAT A LEGACY a couple of starts back as she has been sharp in her last couple. The only concern is the outside draw.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 8:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Marvelous Mystery - 8-5 2 Loulita - 4-5 3 Reign And Shine - 7-1

The switch back to Marcus Miller in the bike may be all MARVELOUS MYSTERY needs. She added trotting hopples for her last and looks to control things on the front end. LOULITA has been very consistent throughout her career. She has versatility as I'm not sure she will go off as the favorite. REIGN AND SHINE pulled off the upset last year and could be poised to try again. She will need pace to chase but the short field could benefit her.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 8:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Fox Valley Landen - 3-1 2 Fox Valley Langley - 5-1 8 He'zzz A Wise Sky - 3-2

The pace is likely to be swift which should set things up for FOX VALLEY LANDEN in here. He had all sorts of trouble early last week and looks to make amends for that race, but the trouble may mean we get a bit more of a price. FOX VALLEY LANGLEY should race well in a race for the person he's named after. He has tactical speed and always seems to be right there late. HE'ZZZ A WISE SKY will be flying for the front. The outside draw, along with other pace in this race may make it tougher on him to hold on in the end.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 8:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 Fox Valley Durham - 6-1 5 Gorgeous Big Guy - 3-2 4 Fox Valley Julian - 6-1

With the potential for a quick and contested pace early, there may be an upset chance in here. FOX VALLEY DURHAM is the "other" Erv Miller trainee in here as all of the attention will go to GORGEOUS BIG GUY. He was beaten by Gorgeous Big Guy by just a half a length in the Springfield final and was impressive in victory last week. Let's see if we can catch a price. GORGEOUS BIG GUY will be right there the entire way. He's won 10 of 11 and looks for an Illinois title. FOX VALLEY JULIAN is the only horse to beat Gorgeous Big Guy, outfighting him to the wire on October 19. Expect he is sent for the top in here. The concern is he may have company.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 9:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Cash Money Twenty - 6-5 2 Battlin Bob - 7-1 6 Dialogue - 3-1

CASH MONEY TWENTY is a bit quirky but has a lot of ability. With the amount of speed in here to go with his draw, he should be able to just settle mid-pack early and wait to move. When clear he will come flying. 2-BATTLIN BOB figures to go from the inside but may look for Mr Ain't Goin to clear so he can drop in. He's won 5 of 9 and is a sleeper at a price. 6-DIALOGUE is an interesting one as he has shown speed in each of his last four. The race to point to though may be the one on September 11 where he rated and rallied late.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 9:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Niko Man - 7-5 3 Lous Lancelot - 5-1 4 Talk About Valor - 15-1

Looks tough to beat the favorite in here as NIKO MAN comes in off an easy score in last week's preview. He should be able to stalk once again as there's a few in here with early speed. LOUS LANCELOT is one that will be forwardly placed as he has raced well in his last couple. He's the possible price play in here. TALK ABOUT VALOR has seemingly lost a step as he has gotten older. With that said, he has a lot of back class and may be poised to pop on last time.

Hawthorne Race 10

Post Time 10:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 First Of Her Name - 10-1 9 Fox Valley Sadie - 3-1 10 No Words Needed - 20-1

Maybe the toughest race on the card. FIRST OF HER NAME has some price potential as she has posted some solid efforts this summer. She needs pace to chase but if she gets a back track she could come flying late. FOX VALLEY SADIE should be the ML favorite and will go off favored. She was impressive here last week but may have to work to find a spot from the outside draw. NO WORDS NEEDED is another that isn't helped by the draw. At the price though it is hard to toss her completely.

Hawthorne Race 11

Post Time 10:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Lous Private Eye - 8-1 4 Tru Cash - 9-2 9 Jewels For Champ - 5-2

Not sure what happened with LOUS PRIVATE EYE last week but if you can overlook that performance he provides value in here. He was a sick scratch prior to that race and may have needed the start. Let's see if he's ready tonight. TRU CASH rallied in his last for a near miss. He draws favorably tonight and also provides some value. JEWELS FOR CHAMP has been much better in his last couple. The post shouldn't hurt him too badly as he figures to drop in at the start and rally in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 12

Post Time 10:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Whiskey Lou - 6-5 1 Fox Valley Tiegen - 3-1 4 Lous Amazon - 8-1

Not going to be too creative here as it is going to be tough for anyone other than WHISKEY LOU to win in this spot. She's won 12 of 13 on the year with the only defeat coming from a troubled second tier start. The draw is favorable as she should get a perfect tracking trip. FOX VALLEY TIEGEN was a good second to Whiskey Lou last out. She shouldn't be too far back at any point and may look to get the jump on the favorite into the lane with hopes of an upset. LOUS AMAZON has just the one win on the year but had found the board in 8 of 14. If the inside three push the pace early she may be the beneficiary.