Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 ARANSAS PASS turned in a BTL effort after breaking SLOG (something they also did in the 8/17) debut. The initial start on the turf around two turns appeared for experience and IMPROVE on the dirt to continue here. 

#4 WREN exits the same 10/12 common race (B- WIDE MOVE) following a PREP in the August debut and should continue to hold form back under similar conditions. 

The connections of #6 UNCLE EVCO were ambitious running against graded stakes company (Zuma Beach G3) last month and returns to the conditions where they were competitive over the summer. The 8/30 race stacks up on par and with adversity taking the worst of the contact at the break (TROUBLES+) before a late MOVE into place. That race being the second start projected improvement with the STRETCH in distance from the 8/9 sprint debut. 

#5 NAP is one of the most experienced in this field though one that is first time on the TURF and can move up on the surface switch. #2 DYNODAVE should continue to get overlooked for the connections despite running competitively in each start. 

The 5.5f distance makes this race tricky and looking at #2 SHE'S RESILENT as the potential "speed of the speed" to carry with the shorter distance. With that said there are many in this field that share a similar runstyle and could set up a runner from just off the pace. #3 UR IN TROUBLE is capable of falling into that trip and with further intent second off the layoff and with the class relief. 

#5 SEMPER INVICTUS should present value as an alternative to logical runners, #2 SHOFNER and #3 MAGNIFY in this spot. SEMPER INVICTUS caught the eye with the big GALLOP+ on debut back in June and projected to IMPROVE with the STRETCH out in distance. Their numbers have improved with racing and the added ground as they stretch back out in this second start off the layoff. 

They hold that recency edge over R. Ellis stablemate #1 EXCEL CALCULATOR returning from the 308-day layoff. Number wise they stack up on par and with today's contenders, though have come up shorter at the MSW level however encouraging with J. Hernandez sticking aboard.

#3 SABRES could be overlooked off the recent running lines and finishing positions. She ran against open $16k company with a competitive race back on 8/8 and from there stepped up holding form and figures first off the claim in September. Intent appeared in play with the second off the claim and return to the $16k level last month, though had the route distance and adversity at the TROUBLE_S making a RUSH with the race won on the front end by open length lone winner, Beauty N The Bolt. 

#8 MINING DISTRICT projected to benefit from the STRETCH out following the debut though perhaps the quick 16-day turnaround was too quick for the second start and the NO_PUSH playing a role in the outcome. They will find class relief from the higher MSW races and par and the drop less concerning as they tried to run in MCL company on 9/5 unable to draw in off the AE with K. Frey named that day. Stablemate #10 STICK SHIFT moved up with the class drop on 9/27 and perhaps a slight upgrade with the trip racing WIDE DUEL under a higher par and MCL level with that event turning out productive.

#8 HOT BOX is not taking a traditional DROP however finds a lower race par returning into this spot with the 42-day freshening. Trip is key with their runstyle and this shorter 5f distance and perhaps the reason for the return to Fresu the rider aboard for the minor finishes earlier this season. Trip will also be key for #10 DR. SOULFIRE not just with their typical off the pace runstyle but with the change in distance shortening up to 5f for the first time since their debut on the dirt back in the summer of 2022. 

#3 ANDREADYTORUMBLE was upgraded from the 8/31 EX - EXCUSE given considerable TROUBLE+ on trip and projected to IMPROVE. He did just that with the BTL place finish last month earning the B OptixGRADE in the process. 

#5 KAWAZAKI should be primed for a top effort in this second start back off the long layoff. He finds a rider change to J. Hernandez to suggest positive intent and upgraded from the WIDE trip 28-days ago. 

#8 EMPIRE'S CLASSIC exits a different 10/13 MCL event with a lower par. That said, they had less than ideal TACTIC- trip and to his credit pushed through adversity for the place finish. Their stablemate #9 STORMIN MIDNIGHT exits the common race on 10/13 with the higher par and had hurdles coming back from the long 414-day layoff and chased WIDE (far outside post a pattern for them) and NO_PUSH on the day to suggest they have more to show.