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Wed November 13th, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Churchill Downs Race 1
Post Time 12:00 PM CST
The early pace should be honest with main contenders #1 GRACE GIVEN and #4 SARANAC LAKE logical types in their own right, though both projected to contest the pace. Looking for a runner to target off the pace, #2 TRES CHIC will be the obvious to take up that role whereas #6 FASTA LAVISTA BABY fits just as well with a similar runstyle, the edge on recency and should be one of the longest runners on the board to get a share and not without an upset look.
Churchill Downs Race 2
Post Time 12:29 PM CST
#7 ANNA'S PROMISE moved up with the subtle class drop and returns with the 46 day freshening to the 9/28 conditions when earning a B setting the pace to get run down by Mad About Marie from off the pace.
Trainer M. Shirer has a pair in this race with #1 BOUTWELL TIME one that has experience and experience at this level though has come up short earning C+/B- Grades under today's conditions; first time starter #9 ST ALBANS RAID would be no surprise to come out running first out. The Shirer/J. Torres pair teamed up with a FTS at KEE in October finishing third earning an 80 figure, a number that would fit on par with this group.
McPeek also with a pair in this race the experienced #5 GEEZ ELOISE could rebound back to her best, the 9/20 race over this course with the class drop and much lower race par today than the race last month at KEE around two turns. Debuting #4 SWEET MARIE since 10/1 McPeek has sent out 15 FTS with just one winner, that one winner was at this higher MCL level back at KEE though currently 0/6 with FTS at CD this meet with just one finishing third.
Churchill Downs Race 3
Post Time 12:58 PM CST
The belated class DROP makes all the sense in the world for #3 COULDITBEMAJIC though the distance change is an unknown and a factor to consider with price compensation. The edge on distance and subtle class with #5 PATCH O'BRIEN returning to CD and in a softer N2 condition than the other races this season over this strip and moves up naturally with those races on par.
Churchill Downs Race 4
Post Time 1:27 PM CST
#4 PRINCESS IS OLIVIA continues to handle business and fits right back under similar conditions. #5 BALLDRY has a similar runstyle (plot position/shape) her 6/21 number stands out as the highest recorded in the field as a major advantage. #6 MISS JEOPARDY is not much of a creative alternative though is all the same whereas #3 VERY WEATHY could take her best shot breaking on top and looking for a gate to wire slight upset.
Churchill Downs Race 5
Post Time 1:57 PM CST
This race is open to a new face with a first time starter as those with races have all left something to be desired to endorse despite the edge on experience. The two inside runners, #1 VODKA N GINGERALE and #2 SPENARD both start for live barns, steady worktab and placed in a reasonable spot to compete first out.
Churchill Downs Race 6
Post Time 2:26 PM CST
This is a tough race as there is not a strong edge or separation in this field and in the case of the majority players. A case for intent could be in play for #1 GOD OF WINE returning under similar conditions as the 9/26 race and appeared intent on that day for the second start off the claim with the return to claiming company.
Value is required for #7 GOLD SEARCH one that must get quicker (numbers on the lower end) to compete. With that said, this could be the time and place for the lightly raced sophomore making their third start off the layoff and returning from an EX - EXCUSE in the PRM September allowance.
Churchill Downs Race 7
Post Time 2:55 PM CST
#10 POVERTY WITH AVIEW has a longshot look in this field and while that might be the case on the board, that might not be the case for this individual in this group. Their debut was competitive under a higher par and can be given a near excuse with the race shape X_FLOW last month on the KEE turf. The surface change is an unknown though even more reason for the public to dismiss.
Churchill Downs Race 8
Post Time 3:25 PM CST
A competitive race with a pair of runners that have a B OptixGRADE at the level despite not picking up the win. #6 UNSTABLE PRINCE earned the B back at SAR and has since held their form though has been running in higher race par events than what they will find here. #1 CURLIN'S GESTURE earned the B OptixGRADE over this course and distance on 9/25 making a late CLOSE into the BLANKET finish at the wire.
Churchill Downs Race 9
Post Time 3:55 PM CST
#9 COME AS YOU ARE turned in a BTL effort at this N1 allowance conditions and should appreciate the added time between start and ground/STRETCH to step up from as she was to what they could be.
#5 TWEETSTER has already recorded the B at this level returns with some added time since the September race along with a rider change. The 9/20 race was her first time around two turns raced RANK despite the competive result looking to build off that initial experience.
#4 CHILLED came up a bit short of the B with the B- effort last month at KEE though earned a higher figure and has continued to show progression and consistent with racing.