Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 LOCK IT UP might not have shown their best in the first two starts and would have to be the case to compete here. The January debut appeared live by the public support and showed run in spots while racing in a less than ideal TACTIC- trip X_BIAS. The trip was also less than ideal on the turf though tough to assess the trip along with the extended layoff that followed and the one she returns from here with changes in barn, surface/distance and class to run for the higher MCL tag.

Perhaps the biggest edge for #5 SKELLY ROAD is their ability to get out of the gate efficiently something the others in this field have struggled with at this point. Outside of that they lack any strong edge and with the drop in class did not necessarily move up and could open the door to others as they project to be favored. 

#2 SHAKO broke SLOG on debut from the rail three weeks ago at KEE chasing a Very Slow (early/late) pace in an 10/25 event with a higher race par and a race that has turned out to be productive. #4 FAST SOLUTION has had some setbacks delaying this debut though recent steady works and a live rider to step up as a new face in this group. 

#6 EDGE OF TOWN should be overlooked in here off the recent form and despite the recent show finish. The quick two week return is noted as well as the 10/31 race with the poor track and WEATHER conditions racing in the rain and put in a strong CLOSE following a SLOG/TROUBLE_S and has been able to show more tactical speed in the past and should translate here with the extended sprint distance.

#2 CURLIN'S MAGIC has not improved from the juvenile season and the drop alone moves them up naturally. #5 SPLASH MASTER brings an "every other" pattern on the upswing of that form cycle into this race.

#7 SELENAIA brings in some buried form overall and since returning from the layoffs this year. Today's race shape cane be a tough read though the "Sun" Contention in play has been favorable to them in the past and noted here along with the recent B- OptixGRADE at KEE and IMPROVE Keyword from May at SA. 

As noted the Hartman trend earlier in the week #3 TWO EAGLES RIVER wheels right back in this spot, slightly shorter one turn distance and "every other" pattern in this third start of the form cycle. 

Both M. Maker runners fit this condition though slight edge to #7 PROPRIETARY TRADE despite taking on older for just the second time. This marks a second start off the layoff slight upgrade in race flow exiting the 10/10 race, their first start for the barn and first start off the two month break.

#13 RATIONAL THEORY is preferred of the runners with experience though does require some racing luck to drawn into the race. She caught a STRONG group on debut and flow upgrade in the second start. 

#1 STAY CLASSY has had some setbacks delaying this debut though looks on track with the quick recent series topped off with the bullet from the gate, something that could be required with the rail draw. 

Most of the group will rematch from the 10/18 common race at KEE. That includes two of the three finishing together at the wire: #1 QUINN'S PROMISE had a subtle trip at the rail with the pattern of SLOG they have shown since the debut; #2 STABLE CURRENCY would look for added EQUIP with a shadow roll noting they jumped a shadow soon after the start before moving up to set the pace (PRESSED) though was able to get away with a Slow (early/late) pace. There are others in this field that have shown legit early speed and will not "walk" on the front end in here though at the same time, they might not be a need the lead type keying off the Hawthorne debut making a strong CLOSE (and GALLOP+) X_FLOW. 

#4 TEH TEH takes the DROP for this second start and in the right place to compete, a change from the debut out west. She remains sprinting and encouraging to see the recent gate work given the VSLOG on debut to suggest she can improve on that front as well. 

Callaghan is capable of getting a runner to fire off a long layoff, the case for #1 FOR A LAUGH returning in this spot. He also remains protected for the belated second start of the year and back at DMR where he has run well in the past and could be some intent waiting for this fall meet. 

FOR A LAUGH has form, class and figures in line with ML favorite #6 PHOSPHORESCENCE and expects to be much longer of the two. While PHOSPHORESCENCE would not be any surprise, prefer to get creative with FOR A LAUGH and even #5 HULA CANDY returning to the TURF and remains protected first off the $40k claim while reuniting with H. Berrios.

The connections are willing to move on from #5 AFFAIR dropping in for the claiming tag and certainly appears they will be claimed here. They could provide the biggest threat to #4 AUDITORY keying off the debut figure from AFFAIR, a number that is in line with that main rival. Following the debut just about a year ago, AFFAIR closed out 2023 with an EX on the SA turf and layoff that followed. They returned this summer at DMR in what looked to be a PREP and while a little more was expected last month at SA they broke SLOG and NO_PUSH playing a role in the outcome behind the lone winner, Accuracy one that won by double digit lengths with the field spaced out behind battling for the minors. 

Periban has quietly been sending out some live runners and could be under the radar with #2 UNWRITTEN CODE in this spot. This will be their second start back off the long layoff and a flow-upgrade after setting a Very Fast (early/late) pace in the return three weeks ago. 

#3 PLAYING HARDBALL has races that fit on par and early speed to factor at this shorter 5.5f distance. He comes into this race with a steady work tab, something to note along with the quicker moves though historically a horse that works fast.  His form is buried since the layoff return and while a turnaround is required this could be the time and place for that. 

While PLAYING HARDBALL has the numbers to compete and in line with #6 SUNRISE JOURNEY he does not have the edge on recency of the two and does require value (and perhaps some coverage in multis) though should hold. 

A case can be made for the two outside runners though trip will be key for them pairing post with the shorter sprint dash: #8 BAG'S GOLD turned in a BTL effort over this course and distance on 8/11 and finds a favorable DROP/PREP following the September turf sprint; #9 EL DIABLE ROJO, a closer, turned in a B- OptixGRADE under similar conditions and distance over this course back in August. At the time he had a long campaign and running back-to-back on shorter rest and comes back with the 70-day freshening here. 

#11 DAY AT THE TRACK is currently sitting on the AE and watching them prior to the debut, those visuals suggest they have more to show. The debut just three weeks ago suggests some intent wheeling back and moves outside (should they run) a change from the first start playing a role in the trip - SLOG, TACTIC- and following some TROUBLE was NO_PUSH playing a role in the outcome as well. 

This looks like it is drawn up for #1 TAMARA making a return to the races. She comes back off the layoff with a steady strong of works and worked second best to stablemate stakes winner Big City Lights despite being given a faster time of the two on 10/23.  She is capable in this spot based on the complexion of this field though must step and improve as a sophomore as her juvenile form while fine has (in my opinion) her overrated by an overhyped horse racing mainstream media. 

#5 ANYWHO has form that fits on par and recency as she makes her second start for the current cycle. The change in distance while subtle is a positive to 6f and while looking for a win on this DMR main she recorded  B OptixGRADE under similar allowance conditions last summer as well as a strong figure in the Rancho Bernardo (G3) a number that fits on the higher end of today's par.

#1 ROYAL CHARTER was more effective in her first couple of starts this season when able to sit and make a run and should return to those tactic/trip here as there are other confirmed front runners in this group. Those dynamics should further assist #5 YERWANTHERE on that makes her run from off the pace and while fits as an individual requires some price compensation with her runstyle. 

#9 REAL FIRE does not hold any strong edge in this field though fits on their best day and brings in buried form to translate to value. That includes the most recent start recording a BTL/B- despite the 6th place result last month.