Handicapper Tips & Picks

The big figure earned from #6 EDDIE M should get a lot of attention here and while that number makes them a player it at this point sits as an outlier compared to their other numbers and earned with a lower par than today's event. 
Trip will also be key for EDDIE M and others looking to get the jump on the front end. #4 PRINCIPE CARLO appears live in this third start off the layoff and upgraded from the two prior starts this meet into Q1 for the first time. They could look to rate off #1 SOARING BIRD as they draw the rail returning to the one turn distance from a WIDE trip two weeks ago. 

#1 STRATOSPHERIC returns to the MCL class for the first time since their debut back in June. That competitive effort (B- WIDE) allowed the connections to protect going forward though despite the show finish on 6/28 visually not on the level and projected a DROP. 

#5 CAPTIVE HEART makes their first start off the claim and freshening for a cagey barn. The DROP was projected to move up off the debut and did just that on 10/11 though compromised by the race shape making a WIDE CLOSE following a SLOG TROUBLE_S into a Slow (early/late) pace - a flow upgrade. 

The early pace should be honest (Sun/58 SpeedRate includes the AE) and enough pace to set up a runner (and price) from off the pace upgrading #8 WANDERING WEST, #10 INDIAN GULCH and #11 EMBER for today's dynamic as alternatives to (or in conjunction with) #2 ON A SPREE looking for a similar tracking trip. 

#5 DANA'S BEAUTY is logical and obvious and based on runstyle there is a scenario for M. Maker to run 1-2 around with #11 BOOMIN' BABE also in this field.

#2 LADY OUTOFTHE BLUE ships in off a TROUBLE trip last month at LRL and to her credit still finishing show. They bring a level of class with the stakes win (and place) at PEN this year where they have spent most of her career logical placement as a PA-bred

#1 GOT THUNDER showed run behind projected favorite #8 GLOBAL SENSATION in the common races this season. Coming off the August MTH win, GOT THUNDER was not at their best September and compromised with the TROUBLE_S and shorter 6f distance. The third start of the cycle comes into play as does the rider change back to S. Camacho, a rider that seems to fit this horse and intent with that change. 

#11 GOOD GOVERNANCE fits today's race shape with a strong late kick as shown as a Large Square on OptixPLOT. Their form also fits looking at Green Keywords in OptixNOTES to offset the recent 5th finishing positions along with improving numbers that fit in line with this group. 

#5 DESERT ROCKET turned in a BTL effort over this course/distance and MSW level back on 7/28 and came back on 8/25 with an improved figure and B OptixGRADE. That not only suggests they can contend back under similar conditions, but the class edge over ML favorites #1 ANDTHEOMOFTHEBRAVE and #6 BIG GAIN stepping up from MCL company. 

#4 RENATUS returns from an EX - EXCUSE in the stakes race two weeks ago and positive surface switch back to the TURF. The number projects to be shorter here though in line with the MSW grass races returning a BTL on 8/30 and the B OptixGRADE in the October place finish. 

#6 MRAZEK'S OLD DREAM has shown progress despite the running lines and finishing positions to work into a minor share here while sitting under the radar. They projected to STRETCH out off the debut and with a subtle SHUFFLE SAVED trip from the rail last month to suggest they still can present another move forward. 

#8 FIRE BAN has shown run inside the debut though has been exposed at the MSW and the DROP today should move them up naturally as well as the slight 42-day freshening.

#2 RICH OF JOY has shown more than the running lines and finishing positions suggest. Much of that had to do with the first three starts in MSW company and the DROP projection suggested as they return to the level here in this second start of the cycle and with added ground where a top is not out of the question. 

As far as the MCL group returning under similar conditions #12 HAPPYASACLAM has a slight class edge earning a B OptixGRADE over this course last summer thought does give up recency. 

#5 CRIMSON SONATA is worth a mention though must improve. They have shown their best on the grass and wheels right back following an EX - EXCUSE last month for this third start back off the extended layoff.