« 11/16/2024 11/18/2024 »
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun November 17th, 2024

Download as PDF

Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 4

Post Time 1:27 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
#7 EL KABONG presents value at the double digit projection. They have form, figures and class that fits on par along with upside in this second start of the cycle coming off the SLOG TACTIC- trip last month at KEE. 

Churchill Downs Race 8

Post Time 3:25 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 OSBOURNE makes his second start off the layoff with fitness on his side as well as the STRETCH in distance. Most of his recent campaigning has been pointed to Oaklawn though has a strong record at CD and the extended sprint distance in play here. 

Churchill Downs Race 9

Post Time 3:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 GAMBLERS TAIL takes the drop looking for a win and cutback in distance. His numbers as a sophomore have lacked progression though consistent enough to compete here and valid in the ML favorite role.

#8 MIDNIGHT STORMY gives up recency returning from the layoff though is right back under similar conditions picking up where they left off from the BTL back in June. #4 QUARRYMEN also logical earning a B OptixGRADE under similar conditions last out (front wraps removed that day) though form not as "buried" and longer odds projected than on 10/13. 

Del Mar Race 4

Post Time 4:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 CLOUDY ROSE held their own in the first two starts on the main track against MSW and returns to the surface and distance here. From the visuals on 10/26 an EQUIP change picking up blinkers was projected and finds that change here as well as J. Hernandez showing further positive intent.

#10 GRAZEN GATOR recorded a B/BTL effort on debut, the lone sprint race and returns to the one turn distance here though will make the transition to the main track for the first time. They will also take the drop in class and the move logical following the pair of C+ efforts in the two recent starts, not quite on the level of competition. 

Del Mar Race 9

Post Time 6:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Pace should make the race in the finale with higher 91 SpeedRate paired with the Fire Contention. This scenario should benefit runners from off the pace and from the 9/13 common race with #5 SUPER ENTICING and #9 KETONIA wheeling right back in two weeks and fit all around in this spot. 

Woodbine Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#10 I'M A BOURBON GIRL can be upgraded and playable at the right number in this spot. They find some class relief and a slight freshening looking to regain top form, form that was present back in September those efforts fit on par.