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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat November 30th, 2024

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Stakes Spotlight

Churchill Downs Race 11

Post Time 4:48 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2):

This race in the past has turned out to be a "key" race and while on the weaker side last year, this race has that strong overall look to follow going forward. 

Heading into the BC Juvenile (G1) #2 JONATHAN'S WAY had shown ability in the first two starts though number wise was on the lower end of the rivals in that event. To his credit he stepped up in the figure department and will be tested to hold here as again faces a talented group of improving types. 

#3 TIZTASTIC fits as an improving type one that landed in a KEY+ race on debut and has shown up each time since with versatility along the way. He returned to the main track with a sneaky BTL effort in the Street Sense (G3) last month. #4 DAPPER MOON also from that stakes event and earning the same B- OptixGRADE with a subtle trip (SHUFFLE WIDE MOVE) in their own right.

DAPPER MOON was upgraded from the Breeders Futurity (G1) with a WIDE trip racing against the course profile. #5 FILOSO also returns freshened from the Breeders Futurity (G1) also against the profile making a WIDE MOVE and still showing a solid late kick/CLOSE behind the open length pacesetting winner, East Avenue.

#8 FIRST RESORT was cross entered in the Iroquois (G3) and perhaps drawing the rail the connections decided to run in the Summer (G1) at Woodbine instead. They have held their own pairing B- in graded stakes company though will give up some recency off the bench here while making their two turn debut. Also shipping in from Woodbine, #1 HE'S NOT JOKING could get attention off the Grey (G3) win and new top figure o though concern that was a HARD effort and given little recovery time while stepping up on this circuit, a bigger test than the surface switch.