Handicapper Tips & Picks

KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB (G2):

This race in the past has turned out to be a "key" race and while on the weaker side last year, this race has that strong overall look to follow going forward. 

Heading into the BC Juvenile (G1) #2 JONATHAN'S WAY had shown ability in the first two starts though number wise was on the lower end of the rivals in that event. To his credit he stepped up in the figure department and will be tested to hold here as again faces a talented group of improving types. 

#3 TIZTASTIC fits as an improving type one that landed in a KEY+ race on debut and has shown up each time since with versatility along the way. He returned to the main track with a sneaky BTL effort in the Street Sense (G3) last month. #4 DAPPER MOON also from that stakes event and earning the same B- OptixGRADE with a subtle trip (SHUFFLE WIDE MOVE) in their own right.

DAPPER MOON was upgraded from the Breeders Futurity (G1) with a WIDE trip racing against the course profile. #5 FILOSO also returns freshened from the Breeders Futurity (G1) also against the profile making a WIDE MOVE and still showing a solid late kick/CLOSE behind the open length pacesetting winner, East Avenue.

#8 FIRST RESORT was cross entered in the Iroquois (G3) and perhaps drawing the rail the connections decided to run in the Summer (G1) at Woodbine instead. They have held their own pairing B- in graded stakes company though will give up some recency off the bench here while making their two turn debut. Also shipping in from Woodbine, #1 HE'S NOT JOKING could get attention off the Grey (G3) win and new top figure o though concern that was a HARD effort and given little recovery time while stepping up on this circuit, a bigger test than the surface switch.

SEABISCUIT STAKES (G2):

Projected favorite #7 REDESTRICTING would not be any surprise however lacks value without an edge in this group and could present overlays on others. 

D'Amato comes into this race loaded with a trip of runners also class and races in their own right to compete. The shorter on the ML, #10 ALMENDARES has been consistent and while competition with the B place finish in the DMR Mile (G2) they were almost 10-1 on the day; #8 EASTER is value at the ML and one that should be sitting on their best with a return to DMR a course where they have run some of their more competitive races going back to the win in this Seabiscuit (G2) Stakes race last year as well as a X_FLOW CLOSE sneaky good Eddie Read (G2) back in July. #9 MASTEROFFOXHOUNDS deserving of being the longest of the trio though one that also has races on their best day that fit and current progressive form in this third start back off the layoff. 

Progressive form also follows #5 ASTRONOMER this season and one that has been able to fire fresh looks pointed to this event. In the 2023 Seabiscuit (G2) ASTRONOMER raced NO_COVER up close to a Fast early/late pace and still recorded a strong 95 figure in this race last year. That figure is in line with the best from REDISTRICTING and should be 10x the odds here and much longer odds than they were in this race last year coming in with similar form. 

#3 SEAL TEAM also appears pointed to this race in the second start off the layoff and stepping back up to graded stakes company. The trip in the Lure was less than ideal (TACTIC- WIDE MOVE) in an extreme SPACED race shape to present upside. They have three recorded wins those races at a slightly longer 9f distance though perhaps more significant the TACTIC+ trips.