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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun December 1st, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Del Mar Race 4

Post Time 4:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 SUPREME COAST has shown to be the type that races themselves into shape and presents upside on a progressive pattern into the third start of the cycle. Number wise they fit on par and also fit for the level going back to 8/15 recording a B in the BLANKET finish at the wire. #5 MINING DISTRICT also recorded a B OptixGRADE at the level on 11/10 though likely to be more "obvious" with the public, that race sitting on top of the pp's.

#7 CROWN COUNCIL is the lone 4yo in the field and making the class change in this second start off the layoff. The TACTIC- was less than ideal three weeks ago on the turf though should benefit them from a fitness standpoint. 

#4 CAUGHT IN THE DARK must step up though requires this DROP to compete. #1 DADDY JUSTIFY has the most consistent figures and finishing positions, something that should see them favored here. Not to say they are not capable, there are still reservations on this runner that tends to lose ground and a desperation move with the blinkers, class and rider change here. 

Del Mar Race 5

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 SCIPIO should have the right pace to close into given the Sun/56 SpeedRate dynamic of this field. While still a maiden, they have held their own in stakes company keying off a B OptixGRADE with TRAFFIC TROUBLE making a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ in the DMR Juvenile Turf (G3) back in September. 

Del Mar Race 7

Post Time 5:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#11 GINA ROMANTICA holds the "best" G1 resume for the C. Brown invading group in this race and a favorable runstyle for this race shape. #12 NADETTE is at her best at this Mile distance and in terms of form and class fits today's race and does hold a B OptixGRADE despite the show outcome over this DMR course returning from the layoff last November. 

Del Mar Race 8

Post Time 6:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 FOR ALL MANKIND returns to the sprint distance, a favorable SHORTER returning from the route under similar conditions on 10/26. They recorded a strong figure in the 8/10 win though had other favorable factors making an EASY_LEAD for a HOT barn at the time. That trend changed to COLD in the SA Sprint (G2) presenting a subtle excuse resetting the form cycle on 9/29 and brings in a progressive forward pattern in this third start of the cycle. While a top effort will be required they project to show it here and in this event where a case can be made for the bulk of this contentious compact group, the winner will require a trip and top effort to win.