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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat December 7th, 2024

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Stakes Spotlight

Los Alamitos Tb Race 8

Post Time 10:48 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

STARLET STAKES(G2): 

#5 TENMA will look to rebound from the Oak Leaf (G2) their first start around two turns and with a rider change, J. Hernandez landing here. Going back to her winning debut in August, physically appeared to handle the STRETCH out and followed up that effort with the 7f DMR Debutante (G1) win showing class/GRIT to overcome the TROUBLE_S with TWO_MOVES. That type of effort perhaps played a role in the recent stakes as well as the blinkers, a short addition with the removal for this race. As far as timing she has been freshened two months (scratched from the Desi Arnaz) to be back on track here. 

Oaklawn Race 9

Post Time 4:14 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

RING THE BELL STAKES: 

#1 HAPPY IS A CHOICE appears well intended in this spot opening weekend at Oaklawn Park over a course and distance they are familiar with looking for that first local stakes win. They held their own in the G3 Count Fleet and showed their class with the GRIT-ty stakes win last out at CD. They are listed as the 2-1 ML favorite though this is a deep group of seven where not any would be any surprise. That type of scenario makes it tough to take too short of a number though noted as some drifting up from the assigned ML can be projected

It would even not be much surprise for #6 GULFPORT to wind up favored. They showed a ton of class starting out his career as a juvenile and had some setbacks making just one start as a sophomore though has returned consistent in this four year old campaign. Overall they have benefit from favorable trips though with the outside draw and complexion of this field, they could find another one here.

#5 RUN CLASSIC could get overlooked given the recent running line and finishing position and presents value on a horse that is a contender. He has shown up competitive in graded stake sprints and carried his game to multiple tracks and surfaces. That includes a start at Oaklawn back in 2022 in the Tinsel Stakes a 9f distance that has since proven further than his ideal and appears at home sprinting.

D. Van Dyke comes into town to ride one horse on the entire card, #7 OF A REVOLUTION.  The two paired up with the allowance win back in August at GP and depart that southern track base to make the trip to Arkansas to return and run in this sprint stakes is too intriguing to dismiss.