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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu December 12th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Fair Grounds Race 1

Post Time 12:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 ANN'S STORM finds a change in class for this second start and turned in a solid effort in the 11/29 local spin; a SAVED CLOSE after the SLOG two week ago. 

Fair Grounds Race 8

Post Time 4:15 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 TAKE CHARGE J J looks legit in the role of the favorite with stakes form and higher speed figures from back in juvenile season that standout above par. They also have route experience and intent along with TROUBLE in the stakes last February something of an overall edge to stablemate #1 CAUSEWAY BENNY one that also has shown run since the debut though will make a first route and start in against winners.

#8 GEM BUOY might be worth getting creative with underneath. They wheel right back for this second start of the meet and a slight softer par than the 11/28 event showing a sneaky CLOSE and strong GALLOP+ after the SLOG in what could have been a PREP. They now also have the benefit of local experience along with two turn experience from the maiden events. Speed figure wise they must step up and improve even off the maiden win number though that number not far from others in this field and many of those earning the figures at sprint distances and still route unproven. 

Fair Grounds Race 9

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 WATERING has shown improvement race-to-race and will be required here as others in this field have recorded "faster" races. With that said, WATERING has the edge in local experience and recency wheeling right back for the connections from a sneaky BTL effort in the 11/24 allowance. 

Turfway Race 3

Post Time 5:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 DECREE showed run on debut despite the running line and finishing position making a BURST after the TROUBLE_S and all around IMPROVE visuals.

Some upside followed #7 POVERTY WITH AVIEW fractious in the GATE and X_FLOW in October at KEE and perhaps has still more upside following a TROUBLE_S and WIDE trip last month at CD returning to the debut figure at KYD has them right on par with the others in this field including ML favorite, #10 HEAR THE QUEEN. 

Woodbine Race 2

Post Time 4:19 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 CYMBAL COURT is worth a value look. The claiming level appears the right conditions to compete and back under similar all around from the WIDE/B- back in November with the STRETCH as projected going back to the sprint in August. 

Woodbine Race 3

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 IRONSTONE should present value off the running lines and recent finishing positions with upside off those trips to contend here. The graded stakes company has been a little tough for them as an older horse for the top spot and had TROUBLE impacting the outcome on 10/12 and a TACTIC- impacted TRAFFIC trip last month (11/16) with a rider change to suggest intent here.