Handicapper Tips & Picks

#7 MISCHIEF'S MACHINE wheels back for this second start of the meet and off a TROUBLE trip right from the start. They showed run after breaking SLOG and taking contact soon after making a MOVE through TRAFFIC. They hold a win under similar conditions and level going back to last season, the 2/13 score and also have shown overall figure improvement in a second-off pattern. 

A compact field though a playable race with #6 GEEZER listed as the ML favorite and returning from a SETUP on the turf in their most recent start and in that role should present overlays.

#1 TOOK CHARGE had a tough task back in September coming off a 412-day layoff and ran a big race race at the level and at 14-1 to get collared late by their stablemate winner, Manitowish closing from off the pace. TOOK CHARGE should run to their advertising from the rail (change from September) and in today's race shape with recency, fitness and intent waiting for this meet off a 48-day freshening back under similar conditions and par from that summer event. 

In terms of figures #7 COUNT DE MONET has recorded some of the higher consistent numbers in this field. That said, the connections are making a lot of aggressive changes for this race with the massive class drop and stretch out to a route for the first time in their career. Based on their success on the lead and while under Esquivel the plan is likely to send and look to steal though there could be others looking for a similar trip. No surprise should they win here though no value as the heavy favorite to play.

#10 MYSTIFIER holds buried Oaklawn Park form and a runstyle to suit today’s race shape looking for the off the pace trip. Going back to that 2023 season they recorded a competitive (B) effort off the bench on 1/8, a tough 10-1 beat and paired up some minor finishes when they had a higher SpeedRate, like today’s race to run into.

#5 ARROGATES SPIRIT returns to a similar race par and two turn distance in line with the 11/4 start at HS Indy. Keying off that race they were compromised at the break and in running with inside/SAVED TROUBLE and MOVE finishing in a place photo behind open length 1-2 chalk winner, Bright Spark – an OP opening day starter allowance winner. The race shape is also worth keeping #4 CONTRABANDISTA in the minor mix.

#1 LIFE IS HARD fits this condition to the definition with three career wins and the most recent win on 6/9 just days before the eligibility cutoff for this race. While they fits on figures and finding a lower race par coming in from the series at WO back to OP the route distance has been a hurdle in the past on stamina. Bowen has been riding lights out and perhaps will get aggressive to send from the inside, though might find company in that scenario. #3 CHAPEL BARN a similar front running type that has shown some distance limitations in their own right though can get the distance with the right trip as shown already 2x this year with LONE trips. 

#5 SPURGEON projected to IMPROVE off their debut and did just that in the second career start going back to the series at SAR. They were freshened for the 11/22 return and follows a similar second-off pattern here. The move off the rail could present a further positive along with the two turn experience.

#6 STIGLETS also holds two turn experience and suited to the route distance. Class is still a question mark on the win end though does appear to hold price compensation in this group with the route foundation for an underneath share.

In terms of the stretch out runners: #2 ORIGINAL SIN might be exiting the stronger of the MSW races and stronger than stablemate #8 PROBLEM SOLVER keying off the sprint back in October at KEE won by Touchy, a horse that has stakes placing and flattered with Amor Patriae coming back on 12/7 to break their maiden in the second start. That runner trained by DiVito follows a similar pattern to second time starter here #1 REAL BLUES. They were part of a chain reaction of contact at the break chasing eventual front running winner Strangers Church closing weekend at Hawthorne and likely to show more early speed here especially with the blinker addition, apprentice rider and rail draw. #3 CALDERA was bet down from the 8-1 ML in their 11/1 debut and while they could improve in a second start the race strength still yet to be established the one next out winner from a $50k MCL start. 

A competitive starter allowance with many that fit the condition. In terms of ML favorite #5 WHAT’S UP DOC one to be against at a shorter number lacking any strong edge in this field and coming off a strong win three weeks ago for a HOT barn closing out the CD meet and the type of effort that could signal a REGRESS-ion. In terms of lack of edge that is also clear on the Plot as a small Q4 Square, not the ideal position to take a short number especially when given a Large Square alternative in #6 RIVETAGE, a lightly raced sophomore returning from a layoff for sharp connections and a top effort has them in contention and should have pace to target given the projected race dynamic.

The second start off the layoff is a positive for #3 SEAS OF NORMANDY one that could be overlooked. They follow a pattern of fitness showing speed off the bench and given the 44 days waiting for this meet and remain protected on this circuit, course and distance with a positive record. #4 FUNNY UNCLE also returning second off with Oaklawn form and one that fits though perhaps more obvious of the two and should be reflected on the board.

#1 INTERLOCK EMPIRE held his own with a change in tactics asked and responded showing early speed last month at CD coming off a dominant win weeks earlier at KEE. It is a positive sign to show up off those recent efforts protected on this circuit.

#8 WILDWOOD QUEEN looks well-intended for an Oaklawn return in this second start off the layoff. The connections are reasonable in the placement running for the claiming tag today with consistent figures on this sophomore filly that fit the par and perhaps could be overmatched if stepped up any higher.

The higher class par and condition has been a hurdle for #11 SASSY LASS looking for that belated second win. The connections dropped to the statebred N2 level late last meet and responded positively landing on the wrong side of the photo back in April.

C. Torres is a solid fit aboard #1 CASHMERE BABY and their runstyle is an overall fit in today’s Fire Contention to work out a stalking trip from the rail and off the bench. That rider change is noted with the sprint distance change from the series last year though  going back to 2023 showed run in the two sprints with trip and rider TACTIC- adversity. The distance change also comes into play for #2 BLUE EMBER one that might benefit from the start and return to route distance though the Compton barn sending out live runners to start the meet must be mentioned at the least.

Also mentioned while only given three spots for selections the 6-1 ML projection is fair for #6 NGALA one that fits as a contender hand has been able to fire fresh over this course keying off the BTL debut back in March 2023 and holds a steady series of local works to suggest they are race ready. 

#8 HELEN’S REVENGE returns to run for the MCL tag protected in October at SA. Overall they must improve though from that October 18^th race, the show finisher Oveta’s Hobby returned last weekend at LRC and buried a MCL field winning by open lengths as an understatement. The change in class is closer to a lateral move for #11 OUR PEARLIE one that can be given a subtle flow upgrade from the 10/29 route and upside on that front though would in my opinion require some drift from the assigned ML, something to keep an eye on should they sneaky away on the board.

As noted earlier on the card, the G. Compton barn has started off the meet with live runners and could see that trend carry with #5 SO EMOTIONAL returning to make a belated second career start. They were GREEN in the October debut at DEL though still showed run to make a WIDE MOVE following the break with their head turned unprepared at the start.

#2 LASKO LADY finds another opportunity to run for the MCL tag in this spot. The 11/6 race was tough from the outside draw and unable to overcome the ground loss was WIDE and under NO_PUSH right from the start. The prior races all at the higher MSW level and even the debut in stakes company could move up naturally here. Number wise that debut figure sits in line with the collective efforts from rival #3 DINAHS GIRL and projects higher odds of the two today. #10 JOYFUL PURSUIT exits a common race with DINAHS GIRL their 10/31 debut and could see improvement in this second start whereas DINAHS GIRL comes into this race exposed. Similar exposure for #9 BLUE DAZZLER with the lateral change in class from the place finish last month and does pick up a rider change from a less than ideal ride something of a pattern from Machado and should be more assertive here under C. Torres. 

#1 UNDERHILL’S TAB used a similar CD to OP second off pattern last season responding with a BTL effort in that 12/9 start. The main change since the series of races in 2023 has been the route distance with improving numbers and that is key stretching back out to compete for the top spot in this event.

#2 CREATIVE MINISTER turned in some strong figures while in graded stakes company as a sophomore though has yet to run back to those numbers and run back to the winners circle. This could be the time and place as they have run competitive numbers at OP bring in current form and subtle trips from CD, a positive form cycle pattern and perhaps intent with Esquivel aboard, a rider that had success pulling up at least one upset last season aboard today’s rival #6 LUCKY BOSS.

#8 DAI VERNON comes into this race with plenty of fitness from the longer marathon events and might appreciate the change going shorter on this circuit. While a top effort is required in the class and speed figure department their runstyle should fit today’s race shape and similar to #7 FULL SCREEN one that projects to be shorter of the two based on the ML. Value or rather a lack of noted for #5 MACKMAN based on overall form and coming up short with recent favorable trips the pocket place finish and perfect trip faltering last month at CD. 

In terms of ML favorite #4 CALLING CARD they dominated a statebred group on maidens last month earning a figure that makes they competitive, however caught a group number wise softer than today’s field and speed figures and class are two different categories that should not be confused.

#2 SANDMAN showed class in his MSW win in August at Saratoga and off those visuals projected to improve with the stretch out in distance. That progression was a race away though did develop in the Street Sense (G3) a respectable effort to give consideration here.

Stablemate #5 GLOBAL LEGEND was a 3.4-1 third betting choice under similar allowance conditions back on 10/19 at KEE with trip adversity at the break (TROUBLE_S and RUSH) into a Very Fast early pace chasing inside and in hand/NO_PUSH after losing ground. Whether they were the right number by the market that day they were at the least improving number wise and number wise in odds things look to shift today.

 The other Casse in this case Norm Casse returns with #1 BIG MUCH one that made a positive PRERACE+ appearance on debut and ran to the visuals with the first out win. The connections had considered running in the Street Sense (G3) the following month though changed trajectory allowing a little more time to recover as well as work through the conditions before the graded stakes test. 

This time and place can upgrade runners with experience: #2 COMPLEX SECRET had the edge exiting open MSW events and the class DROP the right move based on the visuals and after coming up short exposed as the favorite in the recent October start. Stablemate #10 SIGHT TO SEE also finds a subtle change in this quick return for a second start and from a TROUBLE trip with a good GALLOP+.

Peter Miller already picking up a win this meet returns with #4 ALANIS following an every other pattern with the 10/18 race right in line with today’s group and some intent with the ship as well as the blinkers going back on.

#9 NALLA D also showed some early foot in her September and has been given over two months to mature. The outside draw for this longer bodied filly is a positive. #1 TERRA BELLA also with experience as they wheel right back for a second start and changes from the debut three weeks ago. The class change could be taken as a slight step up looking at par and purse though might serve as a positive sign. The change in surface/distance being obvious as well as moving from one post extreme to the other from the far outside to the rail here and an assertive local rider in C. Torres with the call.  

#4 MARKET STREET has been knocking around at the N2 level for quite some time and a steady series of those allowance events this season. The change in par comes into play today and as well as the timing with local experience including experience and a career win with today’s rider, N. Juarez, aboard.

The post position draw might be the key in this race shape and compact field for #6 CLASSIC CAR WASH to work out the right trip. The pace could be tougher on the three inside runners especially #2 EASY ACTION one that might have been upgraded if these two had a change in draw. The 6f race over this course last December was on an off-track and compromised with the SLOG making a WIDE MOVE in a higher race par event as a 3yo in against older rivals on the day.

#7 MACRON has come up short at this level plenty of times and some class weakness. That said he holds experience over this course, another from the outside to work out a stalking trip and key with odds as projected one of if not the higher in this field. The odds shift to #8 CHIRINGO makes them less appealing in this spot and step up from the races closing out the season in spring with the Contreras barn firing on all cylinders and has not been the same trend to start this meet with the limited runners finding the minors often at shorter odds. 

#7 MR. THUNDERSTRUCK perhaps brings in the most accomplish Oaklawn record and a change in class from the prior seasons when in against much pocket and appear today placed according to his current abilities. Similar could be said for #6 COLOSI one that has popped with an upset on more than occasion at Oaklawn. The December 2022 upset with N. Juarez aboard, the returning rider here.

#9 BEEALEA finds a lateral change in class and flow upgrade from the most recent start at FAN and compromised X_WIDE trip back in October at KEE. His form and late kick that translated many times at Hawthorne could be effective in this race shape and complement the front running ways from #10 AHEADOFTHEGAME another IL runner that projects to keep things honest upfront especially with the apprentice weight break looking to hustle from the outside.

#11 KHOZY MY BOY another that has shown early speed though has won from off the pace over this course and distance with Torres aboard last season. That conditional claiming race in February had a different dynamic and different draw noting the rail that day and all the way to the outside here as well as the projected ML favorite assignment to consider.  

#5 GOLD BARON does not hold any strong edge in this field though might suggest intent wheeling right back in a week. The race on opening day was off the layoff and off SLOG and WIDE from the outside showing some run/MOVE in spots while in hand/NO_PUSH unable to show their best on the day. The maiden score back in 2023 was off a similar trip and quick turnaround though for different connections. 

#9 MIDNIGHT STORMY brings in upside and buried form that fits today's race shape. They broke their maiden around this time last season at TP second off the layoff and in from CD with a 7f "prep" showing improvement scoring with an off-the-pace win -- a trip that should be effective in today's race shape. The rest of the season was not as effective in terms of outcome though they held their own in terms of consistent figures just overmatched protected in allowance company. The DROP was projected and responded with the class change in June posting a BTL effort at CD in a race par higher than today and remains in at the same $30k N2 level suggesting intent and even improvement with a lower par bringing them up naturally in this field. 

#5 RETAIL THERAPIST finds some positive changes with buried form to move up and compete in today's race. The class drop was noted back in October and the November visuals suggest IMPROVE from the 8th place outcome on the day. Today's race shape should assist the trip from off the pace (Q4 Square) with the Fire Contention and higher 84 SpeedRate. 

#5 AUDAX MINOR provides value and an alternative to the Tharrenos runners in this field. AUDAZ MINOR was claimed on October 3rd at this $25k MCL level off a B effort on the wide making a WIDE CLOSE and stepped up with a WIDE trip along with the added ground on 10/27. The connections return to the $25k level last month (11/15) and appeared intent however compromised with the TACTIC- on the day impacting the outcome with the top three together at the wire. A rider change following the TACTIC- will be made with Campos taking over, this rider picked up a mount for the barn resulting in a win last weekend (12/8) and similar intent on outcome should be in play here.