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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat December 14th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Fair Grounds Race 4

Post Time 2:15 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 CANAL STREET and #1 MOONIE PIE finished 2-3 in their debut and could step up 1-2 in here. CANAL STREET turned in a B effort for a COLD barn with the subtle trip behind the pacesetting winner. They were a little green in response to the stick flipping leads in reaction to the whip late; #1 MOONIE PIE (B-) was off SLOG though BTL making a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+. 

Fair Grounds Race 7

Post Time 3:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 WHO TOOK THE MONEY was BTL in the allowance three weeks ago making a WIDE MOVE and CLOSE to finish in a BLANKET at the wire and could move up in this second start of the meet turning the COLD trend around for the barn. 

Turfway Race 1

Post Time 4:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 GOOD AMERICAN had to settle for place at this level off the layoff in September though visually B+ - a rare higher grade without coming up on top. The timing off that big effort was less than ideal wheeling back in 16-days for the KEE allowance in October and still put forward a B- effort with a TRAFFIC MOVE and with front wraps added . The intent appears in play for this spot given a little more time between races and with surface/stamina versatility. 

Turfway Race 3

Post Time 5:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 TAPIT SHOES  has shown surface versatility and adaptable to take to the synth on this circuit. They are placed where they can compete, B back on 7/29 and following a positive second off pattern.

#10 EVENT DETAIL has competitive races on this course and distance and upside from the higher race par N2 allowance races in KY following the dominant B+ albeit taxing/HARD win in August off the long, long layoff.

Longshot #4 WOODCOCK FLIGHT was a touch short of a "winning" effort at this level back in March though still posted a B- effort and figure that stacks up on par. They should find pace to target for their runstyle with the Sun Contention/72 SpeedRate. 

Woodbine Race 1

Post Time 12:10 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 SPEEDEEMAN will race above condition with this being closing week and needing a spot to run following an EX - EXCUSE on 11/24, a race they appeared well intended for though compromised and quickly returns with a rider change. 

Woodbine Race 8

Post Time 3:47 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

A value race with ML favorite #7 GOLDEN BOSS weak overall in this spot while returning from a PERFECT trip 16-days ago, a common race with others including #9 SPEEDY FREEZE, a closer shortening up for this spot and also lacking value - #8 BEDAZZLE ME shares a similar runstyle, Plot position/shape and projects higher odds of the two both recording a B- OptixGRADE on the day. 

#4 PRIMA is upgraded from that 11/28 event with a legit stumble (TROUBLES+) at the break and recorded a B OptixGRADE at the level on 11/4. 

#6 MRS C. should also be under the radar to take a stab at double digit odds. They had adversity on 11/28 with the SLOG TRAFFIC SHUFFLE making a WIDE MOVE and also hold a B/win at the level going back to 10/12. 

Woodbine Race 10

Post Time 4:47 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 ANAM CARA might be a tad short on the win end though a double digit runner to key around with consistent form under similar conditioned races this season and can IMPROVE off the 11/15 trip. 

Woodbine Race 11

Post Time 5:17 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

ML favorite #2 EMPIRE'S TREAT finds the class drop though a questionable change in distance shortening up without much intent with that placement could be a default spot on closing weekend. #8 SENSATIONAL SARAH has recorded similar higher figures once upon a time, though has yet to this year returning from the longer 478-day layoff. 

#7 LILLZ STAR moved up with the class DROP and the 7f distance gives them a little more to work with and recover from noting a SLOG pattern. The 7f, extended distance appears preferred for #6 NOYZEE GIRL another following an every other pattern and subtle upgrade from the shorter sprint last month. 

The cutback (and return to maiden company) is positive for #4 POWAQA one that also follows an every other pattern and not far off their main rivals with a top effort, including #9 SILENT DIVA one that has not shown much progression or edge with the races at this level or even slightly lower.