Handicapper Tips & Picks

While #4 VETERAN'S DAY will get attention from the 11/24 common race there are others to upgrade from that event. #3 HARD FOUR looked to need the race and PREP making a WIDE MOVE showing run in spots while their stablemate more fancied on the day; #9 RISKY PRIORITY was given a complete EX - EXCUSE with adversity from start (SLOG) to (TROUBLE) finish and still to their credit managed to finish in the money. 

#5 BECKY'S DREAM has required the class DROP returning from the layoff this year. This placement is clever as she finds that needed DROP but the change in circuit allows her to remain at the level and similar (okay slightly lower) purse. 

The Fire Contention paired with the higher 67 SpeedRate should set up #2 COOLWIND from off the pace. The sit as a Quad IV Square with the other five above the par live and on Standard (current form) four of the six making up the Fire in Quad I. 

#1 AIR CASTLE turned in a competitive effort under similar conditions back in May and appears well-spotted for a belated return. The barn is capable with these type of layoff runners and could even by live with Bowen aboard, a rider that has shown up assertive early in the meet and nearly pulled off the win and maiden score with Penzig for this barn off the long 253-day layoff last season.

#6 FINE BY DESIGN also makes a belated return to Oaklawn and keying off that December debut last year upgraded with PRESSED pace into a Fast early pace running at the statebred MSW level, a higher par and purse and appears intent second off the layoff pointed to this meet running protected last month at RP.

In terms of the two FTS, both are playable: #5 SIMPLE DREAMS looked to be on track to make their debut early in the meet last season though suffered a delay and set back to this season and appears intent showing up early where the barn has been effective with debut runners in prior seasons and with main rider Bejarano aboard. The barn might look “cold” on paper though has been truly unlucky with the first four runners on opening week with two given legit excuses. #8 SMOKE SHOW GIRL makes their debut with recent steady local works and in capable hands. The barn has send out a few live FTS with C. Torres aboard on this circuit, four runners going back to 2020 with three of the four all drawing far outside and impacting the results playing a role in the minor finishes. 

#7 BERTIE’S CAUSE fits the condition and overall form at Oaklawn Park. This start marks their second start off the layoff returning protected in October and scratched from a conditional $10k claiming event back in November at DED to run in this spot.

#3 DONYA KNOW IT will exchange class for recency in this first start back in over a year, 385 days since their most recent start. They have run well off the layoff in the past and consistent figures that fit on par for this race, a reasonable placement to compete first out and for a barn that has started off the meet with live well-spotted runners. #2 OPPOSITE THE CROWD also makes their first start back off the layoff and will drop down in for the claiming tag for the first time since their $40k MCL win last April. That win and improved effort recorded in the second start of the cycle and might consider they need a race and overall value on a runner that has a tendency to SLOG.

#1 CHIP SHORTAGE could be overlooked and present value in this field. They bring back solid Oaklawn form and placed where they can compete for the connections keying off the August 18^th effort and back with Harry Hernandez, the March win rider to further intent. The connections and recent finishing positions could have them overlooked in here and the slight edge over rival #4 ADIVA one that can be kept in the mix for a share with price compensation required. 

Contreras will send out a pair of runners in this field, a complementary duo: #6 NEW WOMAN projects as the early speed, they improved with each race last season and dominant MSW win in March at the FG though was able to get LONE from the rail and race with the track BIAS on the day. If they are able to find a similar scenario they can be dangerous up front though there should be others to keep the pace honest with the Fire Contention – a scenario that might benefit #1 LAURA BRANIGAN with their late kick and some upside from the trips last season and closing out in March with TROUBLE impacting the outcome. Number wise they hold a slight edge over #4 QUIERO DINERO with a similar runstyle that could pick up horses late for a minor share.

Trip could also flatter #3 STRABELLA one looking to follow the positive trend of Matt Williams runners this meet and in this spot. This marks the second start for the barn and in at the claiming level for one that has been protected and often overmatched throughout their career. The claiming even back in October at KEE was contentious and trip subtle from the rail around two turns on the day showing some run in spots. In addition to the distance change a rider change will be made with Hernandez back aboard, the rider up for that lone win, the maiden score as well as other times in the money. 

#4 CURVINO has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and improved with the two turn experience. They are further upgraded from the 11/17 effort at DMR, a sneaky good run given the TROUBLE making TWO_MOVES and more competitive (B-) than perhaps the running line and 5^th place finish suggests on paper.

Stablemate #9 BROTHER TONY also tough to knock though should be shorter of the two given the recent outcome and figures. Even their debut, a BTL effort and solid number they have been able to improve on and handle the ROUTER distance. The outside draw also suits them as an individual, a subtle change here.

#7 HIRED GUN finished third on debut catching a future stakes winner Minaret Station on debut and finds the class change to run for the higher tag after faltering and dismissed on the board in the October 27^th MSW event. The winner of that race, Render Judgement trained by McPeek a park that will be represented here with #2 LURED AWAY on that turned in a solid place effort last month though in terms of numbers likely will have to take another step forward with this group that has recorded higher figures. Similar improvement is required for #1 WACO though has shown progression race to race and turned in a similar overall in a more competitive event than the 11/9 LURED AWAY race and should be higher of the two in here.

#6 SURFIN M worth a mention with a solid effort on debut, though could find this as a much tougher spot than the conditional MSW race back in October at KEE. 

This is a tricky race and unconventional one for the statebred runners a mix of fillies, mares, older runners and a sophomore that have run for a claiming tag or in for the $40k here. #6 SUMMER SHOES is the lone runner in for the tag and looking to get back on track in this spot. She has races that make her competitive under similar conditions and perhaps looking for that change in 2024 with a rider swap, Bowen taking over.

In terms of ML favorite, #2 MAN IN THE CAN they fit this race though the shorter number being the primary knock especially as they return to the sprint distance off the layoff something that has been used as a PREP in the past and while capable at this 6f distance, might require some price compensation. Their stablemate #5 SULWE is a confirmed sprinter and has the right running style for this race shape though lightly one numbers and class requiring a top effort though would not be any surprise.

#8 NAVY SEAL races protected with the higher $80k claiming race last out at Hawthorne, overall they are a consistent type and remain in the mix though often requires the right scenario to win and the inside draws in the recent starts like the August win assisted and changes with the move to the outside here.

#9 BETTY’S CASH also sneaks in protected with the higher $75 claiming race in open company back in March 2023. The also brings in a favorable runstyle consistent figures one that knows how to win races and a preferred outside draw in what appears to be price compensation, those combined factors to earn the top spot in the selections.  

As far as ML favorite #2 AVERY’S MISCHIEF she is a nice looking filly though did break SLOG from the gate in the 12/8 drill a race where the time can be taken with a grain of salt though on the inside draw for the sprint distance that could be a hurdle and physically could see them handle added ground. Another FTS #6 BARBIE’S DREAM showed improved gate speed though still out to show where they fit on class and similar could be said for #7 COCKTAIL HUMOR one like #8 BURIANA has some try.

As far as gate speed #5 COASTER showed more early foot in the morning than in the 9/27 debut over the off track and away SLOG with a WIDE run chasing a Fast early pace. She would be no surprise to show more early speed and overall run in this second start one we might not have seen the best of yet. The September debut was a common race with #9 SPRING DANCER one that paired up similar efforts and figures with the WIDE trip in October and might find similar again from the outside.

#4 ACHIEVE ran fine on debut despite coming up short as the favorite, in a race that did appear to have some quality with the winner Vodka With a Twist a next out stakes winner and graded stakes placed along with Mark Casse stablemate La Cara winning the G3 Pocahontas in September. ACHIEVE returns with a longer 212-day layoff for this second start, not the strongest angle for this barn and have not seen her work since the initial start though gave off turf visuals imo training in the spring. 

#2 ETERNALLY GRATEFUL took some tough beats last season many at this starter conditions and similar spot returning today appears intent once again. Their run style is from off the pace though should find pace to target and ground to save with one of those pacesetters, #1 GOLDEN LUNA on their inside.

#4 LUNAR MODULE looks well intended in this second start of the cycle and off the claim. Class is closer to a lateral move from the recent starts in KY with progressive numbers in this third start back off the layoff. They also hold competitive efforts under similar starter conditions going back to the spring and could signal intent they remain protected here.

#6 IT’S MY HOUSE makes some changes key being distance current back to a sprint and could be effective with that change. There appears intent in this second start off the claim, blinker removal and showing up on this circuit with that timing along with C. Torres aboard.

ML favorite #5 HI YAH was also competitive in their races locally last season though more effective in claiming company though in terms of par catching a similar one in this event as the February N3 resulting in a win and could find a similar trip, those does not appear to offer much value in that projected assignment. 

#8 IN JUST MY HEELS also found her top form last year and returning later in the season has shown a positive progression on speed figures. The pair of wins coming into this race should also assist with confidence taking the slight rise up in class.

The change in class is subtle for #7 MUSICAL NOTE returning from the 10/23 KEE race. That could be the change they need though still has something to prove with the two wins both flow-aided – the debut with pace to close into and the August mile contested on a Slow early/late pace on the front end. If looking at a lightly raced sophomore #11 DEVILETTA with similar form, figures and runstyle should present the higher odds of the two.

Pace and trip is the hurdle for #9 LET’S DUET one that has recorded competitive and arguably “winning” type efforts at this allowance level though making her run from well off the pace it is clear how much she requires to go right to win and the right number to play. 

#3 LASSIE MY GIRL reunites with Santana, a belated return for this pairing that extends back to their December 22 debut nearly pulling off the 7-1 upset on the lead and validated the effort with the MSW in the second start. The barn has been able to get them race ready off the bench and showed as much last December on the off track a game effort in the show finish (B) noting the top three all together at the wire.

#4 NO COINCIDENCES is a lightly raced type making a belated return and third career start. The first two races are tough to knock showing legit early speed on debut taking a tough beat and improving number wise with the February win. This will be their first start against winner and more established types, something that does present appeal however not much in projected value. Value is also something to consider for #11 APPEALING ADDIE making their return. She made a positive PRERACE+ appearance on debut, something to look for on the track today though unable to overcome the SLOG’s in taking on winners in the spring though still one that has upside from those starts and into this season.

When it comes to class #6 RUNNINTHESTREETS might not be on the level, though she is tough to knock with the consistency especially over this main track and 6f distance. The early pace should be honest for her runstyle to make that late move and pick up horses at longer odds, the key with this type of closer.

#1 THE GIRL IN RED could keep them honest and could come out live and show speed from the inside under N. Juarez, the path to victory in her debut. The debut at the MCL level and other success at the claiming conditions might suggest some class weakness as the return to the allowance level here. 

#1 DOADSTER recorded the highest figure in the field for their debut and held their own since though exposed on class. The change in class was positive with a subtle 11/3 trip and has been freshened for this spot looking to turn in a top effort with the closing day maiden score. 

#6 CLAYTON did not handle the rail trip two weeks ago and wheels right back with a post position and rider change for this race to improve on. The placement with the drop late in the meet made sense for them all around and still should come into play here. 

#5 YACHT BOY should have some pace to work a trip especially with their stablemate #4 THE NEW MAYBE out early to keep things honest. The change in class and subtle shift in race dynamic should also assist looking for that second win of the level this season. #1 CHAMBER MUSIC is looking for similar following the 11/3 win, however must step up with today's higher par.

Timing might be the bigger question with #6 ROI SOLEIL wheeling right back again though in terms of class has an edge in this field and playable here at the right number.