Handicapper Tips & Picks

M. Puype runners have been firing to start the meet and upgrades #2 LITA'S WAY one that has buried form and trips to support. The debut when in at MCL level showed run after a poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) making an X_WIDE MOVE and backed that up with an improved B- OptixGRADE in the 4th place result. The TACTIC- was less than ideal over the SA turf in October still putting a strong CLOSE and GALLOP and similar CLOSE on 11/9 at DMR though X_FLOW playing a role in the outcome. 

While respective of the B+ big effort from #4 OVETA'S HOBBY last out this is a step up against winner and likely to face other pace pressure should they look for a similar trip here. That said they have shown versatility and figures from other races that fit on par. While the barn is a bit COLD overall makes sense though could be paired with a very short number.

#5 NOSTRI VIRES should present value with buried form and should be sitting on a peak effort. Their prior peak effort was second-off with the maiden win back in July and not quite to the stakes class level in the two following starts. 

Longshot, #1 GIRLCANTHELPIT is a tough one to ride and get out of the gate (pattern of SLOG/VSLOG) though it appears K. Frey has the right touch. They will take back over today in this second start off the layoff and return to the turf. The grass races from earlier this season were not as made as they appear on paper and did not have today's rider aboard. 

#3 LOVE OUR FAMILY is the horse to beat and should be bet as such and then some with Prat aboard. While it is there race to win or lose, they are projected to race forward and some pressure in that role and if that becomes too much too late, #4 SUPER ELLIE could look for first run and the jump on closer #6 DORINE'S WILD CAT - the two exiting PLN with SUPER ELLIE exiting slightly higher par/purse events. 

#2 PROMISSIO is an interesting sort in this race. They have been eligible for this starter condition since the maiden win in March and have run for the higher purse since the May 27th win. Some of their more competitive races and figures recovered over this SA grass course and bring in form (and rider change) from the 11/30 trip compromised with the TACTIC- decisions. 

#5 FOR A LAUGH follows a positive second off pattern and moves off the inside for the first time in a long time. While their form and figures have remained consistent that subtle change could be enough to impact a better outcome here. 

In addition to projected favorite #2 JUBILANT JOANIE presenting as the clear cut horse to beat; J. Mullins has started off the meet with live, well-spotted runners and that carries here. 

#1 SOLID TUNE has been looking for the right spot and could find it here with buried form off the races this season. The race to key off of back on 8/1 with a similar par to today's race and in running TROUBLE with IMPROVE visuals they have been unable to translate with the higher par events since.

#5 DISCREPANCY also placed according to their abilities upgraded from the race last month making a WIDE MOVE against the race dynamic. 

QUICK KATE the #8 not only rhymes but fits this race despite giving up recency. In terms of the layoff their debut effort was competitive (the 5f shorter than ideal distance)  to show they can fire fresh and the barn get them race ready off the bench. The pace should be honest with many E/EP types and those runners on the inside and outside could bring up the early contention and setup their off the pace (Q2/4 Square) trip. 

As noted earlier on the card with J. Mullins looking to follow that trend with #7 LADY GREGORY in the first start for this barn. They will be making the circuit switch, not always an easy transition though comes into this race with current form, figures and with a slightly softer race par from the recent PLN dirt events that should translate. 

As far as the runners with experience: #7 HORNSBY would be no surprise to improve in this second start out a race with a higher par on the turf back in November at DMR and R. Baltas has started out live here. Similar trend for M. Glatt though more obvious with #6 LETMEIN as the favorite improved number wise in their second start though similar outcome (place/B-) with a similar WIDE MOVE trip.

In terms of the FTS working at SA: T. Baze has been working #2 CHASING RYTER in the morning and kept under wraps in many of the drills while working solo as something to keep in mind when looking at the times on paper. This one has some early speed and early speed can be dangerous in these races. Trainer S. Knapp has not had a lot of success with FTS in this category of FTS though off the works #1 BERLIN WALL is as race ready as they can be. 

#1 EVENING SUN should avoid another WIDE trip with the change in post today though trip will still be key (though in good hands with Dettori taking over) with the cutback in distance, racing in a sprint for the first time since June 2021. Their stablemate #4 MY SUMMER DREAM (and rival #9 WHATMAKESSAMMYRUN) is also trip/pace dependent as a closer though as a positive returns to their preferred surface while keeping fitness from the LRC event last month. 

Miller will also send out a pair with the preference to #6 INCH one that made the drop to this level back in November though suffered a TROUBLE trip at the shorter 5f distance and holds a win at this level from 2023 and appears well intended in this third start back off the layoff. 

#10 PLAYER B wheels right back from opening day and into a better spot for their abilities though still lands under a similar higher par (despite a lower purse) and the outside post and could get caught WIDE right back today. 

A longshot case can be made for #3 COULTHARD with back class and from the races this season with the distance change, timing and front wrap removal. The return works look fast on paper though shocking for these connections none have been picked up by the 1ST crew while training in the morning - a very curious pattern that just keeps happening. 

#8 TRIAL has been knocking on the door for the win and overdue when looking at "trips" along the way. That includes the current form cycle coming off the bench at CD making a WIDE MOVE and upgraded with the BTL against the dynamic over this course and distance last month - improving numbers and pairing B- OptixGRADE (despite the adversity) along the way.