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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat January 4th, 2025

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Stakes Spotlight

Oaklawn Race 7

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

MOCKINGBIRD STAKES: 

#7 SHISOSPICY showed a lot of class on debut and despite coming up short in the Fern Creek Stakes on the win end, validated that effort and then some staying on through a fast pace as the BOS. That early speed and class could present and edge in this field and even with others in this field that have shown early speed they could get cooked trying to keep up with her in the process.

#1 LADY CRUSH showed a lot of ability on debut something they will look to translate here stepping up in class to stakes company and on this circuit. As far as making the lead first out, that was a function of just being better than the others on the day and with this just a second start there is opportunity for them to develop their true runstyle.

#2 G W’S GIRL holds the edge on speed figures and class over many of today’s rivals though will exchange for surface experience with this event a main track debut. Just catching the 12/22 work, she handles the dirt though was working solo without any other horses around, a different scenario that what she will find on race day. 

Oaklawn Race 9

Post Time 4:22 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

SMARTY JONES STAKES: 

#5 MO QUALITY has been as advertised so far showing a lot ability with a BTL effort on debut, something of a taxing effort (HARD) for most horses though came right back the following month with the maiden score making a WIDE MOVE from the outside post. They will be tested for stamina in this first race around two turns while in against winners though as good a time as any to start off the sophomore campaign. Junior Alvarado aboard last out has a few other calls on the card though this being the reason they are in town today.

MO QUALITY should present value with #1 KALE’S ANGEL coming off a strong win though for the Advent Stakes was upgraded with the shorter distance and stretching back out today has that question mark especially at shorter odds. Their stablemate #7 CURVINO is best suited to the two turn distance and has the edge on surface/distance experience though must get faster coming in a little lighter than others in this field.

The Brad Cox #6 HOT PROPERTY likely to take up the role as the favorite. While they won at first asking around two turns (and flattered with place finisher Seattle Road breaking their maiden - albeit a blanket finish)  they did benefit from a Very Slow early and late pace while clear late still all out to the wire. They will be tested on this circuit and against winners though does appear intent for the connections and like Alvarado in town to ride this does appear the reason Prat is here as well.

#3 OPTICAL will also be tested for two turn stamina though worth noting the clear TROUBLE+ EXCUSE back in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at KEE in October. #8 COAL BATTLE fought and prevailed to win the Springboard Mile just three weeks ago and while a strong effort on the day (B+) the timing and all around rise presents some hurdles here.