Handicapper Tips & Picks

#10 CLASSICALLY ships in for D’Amato a barn that has run over the years at Oaklawn with success and has this one spotted to compete and even find a claim. They will face winners for the first time though bring overall consistency and a similar to the races out in California to transfer including that most recent DMR score.

#1 PATCH O’BRIEN looks to have intent for the connections freshened since the claim back in late November at CD and under similar conditions to where they have been competitive as of late. The race back on 11/13 was a place finish result though a winning race for the level combining the TROUBLE and photo finish and wheeled right back in 16-days for that late November start with less than ideal timing and handling/TACTIC-. #8 AMERICAN RAIDER are who they are. That is enough for this level as they return from the freshening and in this spot for the Asmussen team.

#2 POINT BLANK will require a lot in their favor to win though going back to last year under similar N2 conditions with N. Juarez aboard turned in efforts that fit with the others in this field. Their runstyle could work in today’s race shape with some tactical speed and perhaps the distance limitation of #6 INDEPENDENT PAUL stretching out and if they come back to the field POINT BLANK will be in range. They bring in some intent for this second start off the layoff and the stretch out in distance, similar intent for #9 GLUCKSTADT another that has shown some distance limitations, though tougher to seen with the bulk of the races at the route distance. 

#9 GAME KEEPER makes a return to Oaklawn with intent on the circuit where they started out their career and recorded some of their better figures. GAME KEEPER raced protected most of his career with the higher par and purse attached to those races. The drop moved them up in May with a BTL effort, a race they were claimed out of and had the layoff that followed before returning in November when claimed again and given a pass with the TROUBLE_S and NO_PUSH for that 8^th place result when they are capable of much better and any real concerns would see a much bigger drop than the $30claiming tag they return from today.

Intent looks in play for #5 RIVETAGE in this second start of the season and change in class. They were able to get a start and fitness from the WIDE trip three weeks ago and race protected coming off the layoff. They will find a change even from the local races last year at the slightly higher $50k claiming level, to suggest this is the right placement.

#3 HOLLYWOOD ENDING also takes a slight drop claimed for $50k in late November at CD and overall form and figures should hold to compete here. In addition to the off tracks in the layoff return races – the poor TACTIC- and excessive ground loss (X_WIDE) played against them on 10/31 and capable of IMPROVE off that effort returning in November made a WIDE RUSH into a Very Fast early pace impacting the outcome – the winner from a tracking trip and place finisher from well off the pace. 

The early pace could be contentious early something that #1 NULLARBOR could be tested with given the rail draw and their best runstyle when assertive on the lead. They can pop with a big race from time to time, looks pointed to this meet off the claim and freshening and as an individual can be tough to pass and in terms of play should hold the double digit assignment on the board.

A contentious early pace suits #4 SONNEMAN with their off the pace runstyle. For the most part of their career they were placed at a higher level struggled to get the win though since making the move to claiming company has been more effective and this spot is clever for the connections racing where they are protected from the claiming tag.

#7 GASOLINE follows a similar pattern in their early career in higher level allowance races and stakes company overmatched on class though when spotted correctly is in position to win. They ran under a similar par back in July at HS Indy granted a three horse field, though still found a solid win and following that race upgraded in terms of race flow in the KYD allowance as well as the 11/7 allowance they were claimed out of along with the WIDE trip and freshened for this spot. 

#3 WHAT’S HER NUMBER brings in Oaklawn form from the races last year in MSW or higher MCL company all fit for today’s conditions. Even the race at the $30k MCL was competitive all things conditions with the rail draw and forced to show early speed from that post, given their best chance though not their ideal trip and runstyle.

#8 MISS WORLD PEACE has been off a long time making this belated second start in the first part of the 4yo season. Going back to the debut, the juvenile figure stacks up with the others in this field, numbers recorded recently and older to suggest she can compete here. The timing being the bigger unknown though the type that likely must come out race ready there has been attempts to bring her back sooner as recently as the summer training up to the DMR meet unable to get race ready and appears they have that now.

#1 MOOREA TIME is another west coast invader the lone mare in the field. Number wise she has recorded some of the higher numbers in this field and a level of consistency in that department that make her a contender. Some value is still required given the surface distance with the rail draw and trip crucial to win.

#11 POETIC FURY could be part of a group of live Ten Strike runners on the card showing up here for a second start. In the debut they broke SLOG though showed natural early speed to recover and then on hold behind the pacesetters to suggest they could be more forward today. The barn overall does have the strongest debut numbers and a smaller sample size of maidens all together. 

#5 BISHOP’S BAY will get a lot of attention in here with the connections and a race record that is tough to knock one that has yet to finish out of the exacta in the five starts. They showed speed figure progression in the 3yo season though also benefit from favorable trips and the race flow in the Peter Pan (G3) . They had the hurdle making the 506-day layoff return a winning one back in November though again a perfect trip and lower race par/purse than today’s conditions.

#9 CAROLO RAPIDO presents upside from their two most recent starts and looks to get on track here for the connections. The Super Derby effort caught the eye with BTL visuals making a massive BURST following a poor start and continued to CLOSE ground a competitive race despite the 6^th place outcome. With a look off that effort, they were compromised the following month at KEE given an EX taking KICKBACK early making a WIDE MOVE and in hand (NO_PUSH) late while racing against the dynamic.

#2 HAYES STRIKE was able to rate closer to the pace with the change in class in November dropping down to the claiming level and finding some much needed confidence with the win that day. Claimed from that race the new connections step up here back to allowance company, a level that does not present any class or speed figure edge though in terms of form and pace they are right in line with today’s race shape - something that in addition to longer odds gives them the slight push over #1 BATON ROUGE in the selections. 

#7 ZAGHRUTA was given a follow leading up the debut on opening day given the lower trending trainer pattern paired with shorter odds. The 12/6 race finishing in a blanket for show provides experience over the course and distance and that event has been productive with two next out winners leading with Jenkin scoring in the Years’s End Stakes.

#5 ENSORCELL should be flying under the radar exiting that same common race and one that had a legitimate EX – EXCUSE in part to the rider noting a change today with Santana taking over. Overall upside present in that start that carries here once again with the sprint foundation, improving numbers and should be sitting on a peak effort.

Leparoux sticks with #3 TAKE CHANGE MILADY one that had a compromising trip on 12/20 behind their stablemate winner, Anomina that secured first run while TAKE CHARGE MILADY had to deal with TROUBLE and late CLOSE though perhaps best and won the GALLOP+ out. In terms of class, they raced at the higher MCL level on the day though had the exemption that allowed them to race protected and were not in for the tag.

The Years End Stakes has a common trend with the place finisher Youll Be Back the winner of the FG November 30^th race that #8 AWAKENING shows up from to make this second start. All around they could improve with that race under their belt and added ground though still had a PERFECT trip and the type that will get a lot of attention from players using angles over assessing the individual. Number wise their stablemate #10 LA FANTASTICA has recorded not only faster of the two but in this field however those numbers recorded in the turf sprints and at the time of this analysis does not show a published work since the 11/30 race. 

#10 PERFECT SHOT makes sense as the favorite in this race with a consistent record and solid return from the layoff in November at CD back to the two turn route distance today. As a lightly raced, now 4yo, upside could still be present and this race likely key for the connections to see where she fits and going forward whether or not to return to stakes company.

#6 CRAZY CAMI will be tested again for class though the connections that though enough to run her as a maiden in the Alcibiades (G1) as a maiden could have her improving with racing and with added ground. The speed figures progression is notable and does require a new top is not far off many in this field.

The ML on #11 SIMPLY ENCHANTING is the most appealing in here though tough to see the odds, something that would be fair holding given the connections and their prior history. Perhaps they will be around rival#3 IN JUST MY HEELS one that coming into this race has run faster races and holds experience over this course. Trip is key for both in today’s race shape and for Bejarano has a few more options - if they go for the lead again will find a battle similar to 12/15 and perhaps a similar result. Sitting just off if possible and waiting to make a move like the November trip that should be effective in today’s race shape

#2 MIDNIGHT CHANNEL looks pointed to this race at the longer distance and rerouted here after the weather cancellation last Saturday. The recent running line and 5^th place outcome was impacted racing WIDE trip in that first start off the claim protected back in November at CD. The claim in October likely had Oaklawn intent on their radar at the time and overall encouraging with the race placement and timing while they remain protected at this starter level.

#10 HUGE BIGLY follows the same path rerouted here with experience at the distance and course with competitive races at Oaklawn and C. Torres named on the day returns here. The post position does change slightly drawn 2 last week and 10 today though going back to the races last year that might be a better scenario allowed to stalk outside rather than forced forward or chase inside behind horses.

The longer distance unknown paired with the shorter odds is the reservation with #7 BRIGHT LEAF one that otherwise makes sense in this spot and while they have not shown distance limitations, it is still something to prove. Perhaps similar can be said for #6 ETHEREAL ROAD one that has the distance experience though often has lost ground late and while capable, this longer distance might not be their ideal.

Not totally sold on today’s distance for #1 LUCKY BOSS though can respect the return race and timing coming with some class relief in this second start of the meet. The inside draw should allow for them to save ground, trips that have been effective for this one in the past, including the two course wins last December. The added ground and the start last month is a positive for #8 BLACK APPLE as well though placement is still a big hurdle on class with lighter recorded numbers. 

#3 RED ROUTE ONE has had to be patient one week though appears pointed to this stakes race by the connections with a return to Oaklawn and prep second off returning from the Clark (G2) with a sneaky trip. Their runstyle can often be pace dependent though should have an honest pace (especially with front running stablemate #8 UNLOAD in the field)  and if nothing else a class edge. Santana will jump back aboard today and the two paired up going back to the sophomore season with a place finish in the Southwest (G3) behind Arabian Knight, the division leader at the time.

#5 QUALITY CHIC is a fun addition to this race one that has some buried Oaklawn Park experience from back in the MSE days and has shown stamina and overall progression as an older horse. Class has been a test at times though has shown up at AQU in stakes races holding their own and competitive figures and similar first off the claim for the connections last month the Cherokee Mile stakes at CD, a one turn distance for this two turn horse.

Similar all around intent should follow #7 SEIZE THE NIGHT one that race 4^th in this race last year over an off track and one that had been on a longer campaign leading up to that race and impacted the two other stakes appearances that followed before the layoff. The returned form the layoff in a November allowance on the CD turf, a move that was used in a similar pattern leading up to the Tinsel Stakes last year when the race was carded in the second week of the meet – noting a different race schedule this season though intent for this horse playing all the same. 

#7 LOOMS BOLDLY could be closer to out in front quickly given the complexion of this race and potential to present an early speed threat on the lead. Their beet races when it comes to speed figures and outcome have been when able to establish a lone lead or catch a front running profile and at the least one of those scenarios could play out here.

A lot of that could factor on the tactics with #12 CARBONE given the outside draw and returning from the layoff back to the 6f distance. Following this runner with their Derby trail bid, they showed some distance limitation and ultimately found the distance cutback though tougher spots in the spring with the two stakes races before the break and will look to get back on track and show where they fit here.

#11 TWO EAGLES RIVER brings in fitness and upside from the place finish and trip last month at TP. While an established one turn type, they have been more effective with the extended sprints though could find a scenario where this race plays similar especially if others try and chase the speed of LOOMS BOLDLY early. Their runstyle and overall form, figures and class sit similar to rival #8 RED FLAG and based on the ML projection, TWO EAGLES RIVER the higher of the two.

In terms of higher #10 AMERICAN OUTLAW should be one of the higher in the field if not alone in that role. Without question they are a legit longshot to win. Though value a different case at least getting in for a share. They have experience over the course and distance with improving numbers going back to the sophomore season and missed the meet with the timing last year. The timing in start was compromising to the point of an EX last month at the break both horse and rider catching air as the gates opened and showed a MOVE X_FLOW. R. Eramia has been aboard in the past with success and has the mount here, the only mount on the card and will wait all day looking to make it count. 

#2 HAPPYASACLAM could get lost on the board and kept on the radar. They are the only runner in the field that recorded a B OptixGRADE going back to 11/18 (2023) and brings upside in this second start off the layoff from the TRAFFIC MOVE trip in November (2024) with a better draw here. 

#9 DAY DREAMING was ridden as the 12/27 race was a PREP chasing WIDE NO_PUSH and those visuals are paired with the timing here on the 9-day turnaround along with the class DROP.

#1 PARADE DOWN BROAD was entered for the turf back in April and could be intent with that surface switch and intent second off the layoff. Overall improvement can be projected with the 11/22 EX - EXCUSE given the TROUBLES+ lunging and landing awkwardly out of the gate showing a MOVE and interest in a compromised beginning coming off a 238-day layoff. 

#12 SINE QUA NON brings in buried form and more than a longshot look in this field. They earned a follow (X_FLOW, ROUTER) from the debut and BTL/B- effort on 12/3 prior to the layoff they came back from with the win in September. The race par on 9/29 is the same par to today's race (85-79) and a notable change with the two DMR races a much higher (94-86) par upgrading them naturally on that alone and trips to further support.