Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 PEPPER JACK has a long show look returning from  BTL effort on 12/29 and finds a change in class with the lower par/claiming tag. This one has been without a win for the connections since 2023 the move makes sense and to play reasonable to have the price compensation. 

#10 HARD FOUR also brings upside in the current form cycle and change in class. The return race off the layoff on 11/24 appeared a PREP showing run with a WIDE MOVE in a race less fancied than their place finishing (the top two together at the wire) stablemate, Totally Addicted. Claimed out of that race the trip three weeks later (12/15) appears one they can IMPROVE on and the long WARM_UP appeared to take something out of this horse before the race began. 

#4 AUTHENTIC GRACE made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and enough visually to IMPROVE in running off the less than ideal trip in part to the SLOG start and ground loss/WIDE before NO_PUSH late. 

#4 KITTEN'S KID finds a change from the recent open company claiming races into this spot and could be the key to get back on track. In addition to the change in class, a potential upgrade from race dynamic could also present here with the PLN races also with Fast/Very Fast early paces they were chasing before losing ground. 

The race shape sets up for #7 OSCAR JOY from off the pace though still one that at the shorter number here should come with some reservation given the pattern of SLOG and perhaps can allow #4 BOLT SUPREMACY the first run and the difference in trip as the two both fit similarly on class/speed and form. 

#1 SENSATIONAL DREAM has been pointed to debut on the turf and capable for the connections. The barn has had success with runners showing early speed something that could be on display with the recent works, rail draw and getting in light with the apprentice weight break. 

#10 DYNO WAR looks to hold some upside from their debut back in October at PID a race that has been productive and appeared intent on the day, favored as the lone FTS in the field. The barn has had some success as of late and in this category of runner. 

#5 DECREE caught the eye on debut and run beyond the running line and 9th place outcome - the KEE race started with adversity TROUBLE_S making a middle BURST and overall visuals to IMPROVE and intent as they were entered under similar conditions on 12/12.

#4 ZIGGZAPPA is moving forward with progressive OptixGRADES into this third start of the cycle and under similar condition. The race shape should assist their late run and given a similar upgrade to stablemate #6 MEGAN'S NOEL. The J. Grubbs runners looking to upset and take advantage of an early pace that should involve ML favorites #2 A NEW PEACE and #9 CANT KEEP ME DOWN runners that could be weaker in that projected role. 

The projected race shape (Sun/39 SpeedRate) paired with the majority of the field sharing an E/EP runstyle could see an upset from off the pace - #2 IMPROBABLE STORY, #7 CARL G, #8 SEMINOLE BEACH and #9 RESIST THE DEVIL. 

#7 ALRASIKH projected an IMPROVE going back to the debut last April and did just that coming off the layoff in November. That race being a big effort off the bench at CD might not have provided enough recover leading in the 12/21 race when acting up in the GATE breaking poor (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and despite the running line and finishing position put in a WIDE MOVE. This is an "old school" cycling back to a top third off the layoff angle that fits with the form cycle here.