Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 PRINCE IS MY BOY finds a change in scenery, class and race shape and those factor upgrade then in this race. 

#3 ROLL GYPSY ROLL put in a BTL effort at this level three week ago and a look right back under similar condition. The TACTIC- took back soon after the start and made a late move. Today's race shape should be more contentious for this Large Q4 Square with today's Fire Contention/67 SpeedRate noted the change from the Sun Contention/45 SpeedRate on 1/3. 

#5 COMBATTANTE brings up some upside from the juvenile season into this MCL event. They were on a progressive pattern upgraded with the belated STRETCH out in distance back on 9/25 - however trip compromised with the EX - EXCUSE on the day and should be at the right level, surface/distance for their abilities here. 

#6 CURLS NITE OUT also holds an EX - EXCUSE from the 1/3 race when upgraded with the TURF surface switch. 

#8 GLUCKSTADT brings in current form at the level following the place finish last out and overall form and figures to fit on par and with today’s group. The early pace should assist their runstyle, something key as the distance can be a stretch for them and need those advantages.

The early pace should be honest with horses stretching out off recent races or in just limited starts in their career. Form and foundation in that case should upgrade #5 POINT BLANK in this third start of the cycle and progressive form this season as well as a few minor finishes under similar N2 conditions last year with N. Juarez aboard. Fellow statebred #7 OUTLAW RUN also follows a progressive third off pattern with their most competitive figures on the turf though if able to translate those efforts here, (something they have yet to do) could compete and notable they show up in this race very very light carrying 113

#2 THANKS FRANK is one of those exiting a sprint though has been able to carry their speed and show stamina around two turns, something still a question mark for #1 INDEPENDENT PAUL and even #4 DYNAMIS one that finds a lateral change in class from the recent races and should be short here as at least on paper appears a class drop.

THANKS FRANK brings fitness first off the claim for the third start off the layoff and with current form from that cycle into this race. They likely needed the race off the bench against winners in November and present upside off the sprint trip on 12/20 to IMPROVE and look to give the connections their second win on this circuit – a limited sample in a few seasons. 

#10 PREACHER’S KID is the most consistent in this race from speed figures and efforts on the track. Even when finishing off the board last year did not run a “bad” race and even coming back this season off the layoff in December WASTED a lot of entered prerace and still came with an honest place finish behind first run winner, Statler. Their runstyle should not be a hinderance and while they not present as much upside the consistency is respected in this group.

#3 AFFIXED is the wild card in this field, one of the few non-ARbred runners in this field and taking the class drop for live connections. They showed early speed in the two races to date, though route speed in the two turn events following the championship GP meet last year and will look for that to translate into today’s sprint and main track. It is worth noted they had been entered during the cancellation days under similar conditions so intent in play on that front.

Some intent could follow #6 CHANCES TAKEN with the blinkers off and class drop in the second start for the claiming tag and from the November races, races that were arguably tougher events than what they find here even if a technical lateral change with some productivity, a few next out winners. Going back to 11/7 at IND they finished ever so slightly in front of a horse called Get Away With It, one that finished second in the 12/7 race some of the AR bred runners (#1 YEAGER’S STRATEGY and #8 RERUN) return from here.

From that 12/27 common race #4 IT’S A RAINY DAY suffered a WIDE trip from the outside post and has improved this season from the numbers last year and in addition to the fitness will find a rider change as Bowen takes back over. This year they have show more tactical speed, the weakness for common rival, #1 YEAGER’S STRATEGY, a confirmed closer and will come running late just a matter of is it too late. #5 CHEROKEE WILL finds a step up from their RP races in terms of par and purse for this race and while their early speed could carry they have had a similar Plot position/shape in the past and still lost ground late. 

#2 CAMP DAVID should find the right group and the right trip at this level and in the second start back off the layoff. Trip, placement and getting them to the track has been a challenge for the connections though when those things line up, CAMP DAVID is a player. The race on 12/22 was a higher par and purse and no favors making a RUSH caught WIDE with the draw though should hold fitness coming back today and encouraging with the timing and still running for a higher claiming tag with Vazquez back in the saddle.

#6 TRIDENT HIT finds a similar upgrade in timing second off and back under claiming conditions from the 12/22 allowance. Their trip was not ideal from the inside though the race shape assisted with the 4^th place finish, a noted BLANKET finish with three together at the wire that included their more fancied stablemate, Red Run.

A few runners cross-entered in a starter allowance last Saturday with #7 GASOLINE on the AE and will have Santana for this race (the rider assigned on their stablemate) up here remaining at the claiming level  following  WIDE trip show finish (also WIDE CD trip in November) earlier this month with back numbers and class from the efforts in graded stakes company to compete here and fit today’s timing eligibility.

#5 WHAT A BLESSING presented upside off the show finish on debut and stayed on well as the BOS taking pressure to the outside from #2 VIKING, a change in post for that pair today. WHAT A BLESSING stayed on though just unable to hold off FTS, Baddest Good Boy in the 12/21 common race, different trainer though same owner as VIKING. Off the two efforts, WHAT A BLESSING should return with as honest of an effort here back under similar conditions and up against some of those familiar faces.

#8 SIMOVIC the show finisher had a subtle trip getting SHUFFLE SAVE and waited behind horses as the winner made their move before getting up late into show. They have a level of consistency and will just come down to trip and some racing luck once again.

#7 LAMBO will make a very belated return to the races one that has not been seen since the summer of their juvenile season, though was on track last year to return at the FG and had another setback at that time and into the spring. Going back to their two starts, each race consistent (B-) with progressive numbers and there was some intent or at the least steam on this runner favored in both starts. The connections have again been patient this year scratched from that 12/21 common race  though worked on the same day and brings in a pair of works since. 

#11 CAWKAB scratched from a slightly higher N3 claiming event last Friday to run here instead and looks to have intent with that placement. Their current form requires a slight boost though had the back Oaklawn form, subtle trips with the timing and races shapes since the show finish back on 10/30 to present a move forward.

#5 FIGHT’N READY brings in upside from the 12/20 race and race shape with their off the pace runstyle and compromised given the Slow early/late dynamic. They should move up with that race under their belt and pace to chase along with Oaklawn form and trips going back to last season and has been managed well by the connections since.

The 12/20 favorite #6 OWN THE FIELD returns here as well and without excuse as far as trip tracking pacesetter #4 MIGHTY MESSAGE and perhaps some distance questions loom on OWN THE FIELD as they fit on class and figures. That race last month is notable as they return today slightly lower claiming tag than the race last month and a noted change claimed by B. Cox and on the quick drop as the Cox connections turned out place finisher, J T’S IMAGINATION one that was not as competitive under similar conditions last Friday finishing off the board. Trip forced then to race closer to the pace and with the midpack draw and other speed to their inside perhaps those factors work in their favor and required for this two turn distance.

#8 BIG DRINKER has a habit of SLOG, though in today’s race shape that appears to be contentious that pattern could work out in their favor to run from off the pace. Form and figures still require a top effort along with trip to win, though has those races in his career to compete and a live barn as a further positive. 

#2 ROCK STAR PARKING will see C. Torres take over in this second start off the layoff and appears intent for the connections with that change – 17% winners and 41% ITM with a positive ROI, and arguably upgraded from those stats under today’s race conditions. The rider change is not alone dropping down to claiming company from the starter allowance earlier this month, a race they were unable to show tactical speed lunging (SLOG) out of the gate.

#9 DONYA KNOW IT could step up overall in this second start off the layoff and post position change from the 12/15 race the WEATHER conditions had a drying out track surface and they NO_HANDLE the footing while inside and moves outside horses. Their form going back to 2023 was consistent in terms of figures on par that fit today’s race and intent could follow first off the claim, given 40 days, the addition of blinkers and another positive ROI jockey trainer combination with Vance and Bealmear together at Oaklawn.

#6 ICY RIVER could present upside in this third start of the season and back under similar claiming conditions from the 12/21 race though more time between starts. They also find a key post position change moving off the rail, that post and race shape forcing their hands to send LONE X_FLOW. While ICY RIVER holds early speed, they have been able to pass horses and moving to the outside post along with fitness might find the right tracking trip.

The speed from the rail lands with #1 PROUD MULE and capable of presenting the speed of the speed. Inside speed struggled last Sunday with the cold temperatures and a track profile that is something to follow early on the card. Stablemate #5 CANDY ARCADE benefit from the race flow from off the pace in the 12/21 common race and could look for a similar off the pace trip here though another top effort required. 

This is a race to try and get creative in for nothing else a race where the entire group fits top to bottom and tougher to take a shorter number --- with #4 KATTATH and #6 HELLO HOT ROD fit as individuals though at this two turn route distance share a similar runstyle and should take part in an honest early pace where the opposite end of the field requires racing luck from closer. #1 RIGHT TONE stepping up in class from the BTL effort last out and trip also going to be key for #10 W W CRAZY as they stretch back out and drawn outside in this group.

Going outside the box #7 LUCKY BOSS is given a mention with the price compensation coming back in the third start of the meet and key changes. The race off the layoff appeared a PREP and the class level required a DROP something they did not find earlier this month at the longer distance starter allowance and compromised further with the rail draw and race dynamic. The current form takes some forgiveness making the case here as it would be the time and place to turn things around.

Some forgiveness could also follow #9 THAT’S SOMETHING from the 12/28 race on a day with the race delayed an hour and the card cancelled under an “abundance of caution” following that race. They return to the claiming level and on their best day fit today’s conditions along with current form and a runstyle to fit today’s race shape.

Race shape might have played against both #3 TIWANAKU and #5 NULLARBOR making a case for the par returning from the slightly higher $30k claiming event on 1/5,  a race with the winner finding a midpack stalking trip and place from off the pace – both return with other further changes as TIWANAKU second off the claim and with Torres aboard, a similar pattern used with Payne, the winner for the barn this season – NULLARBOR moves off the inside and back in familiar hands with Wales aboard. 

#13 ALL WEST (AE) will be upgraded should they draw into the race one that fits this restricted condition for live connections and with a similar runstyle given preference to rival #9 WORTH LOOKIN one that is capable though lacking value with the 2-1 assignment.

#8 SMOKIN’ HOT had a look coming off the layoff last month based on their runstyle, figures and class on par, though showed up with the front wraps and perhaps a sign they needed the race. They should come back with fitness second off despite backing up on the early duel was part of a solid early pace. The front wraps were also added back on April 27^th followed up with a removal and win in the next start in May and something to look for here.

#5 MAN ON THE MOON appeared to hold intent coming back for the second start of the meet on 1/4 though lost their race at the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and running along the inside. They move slightly outside today and a different dynamic and rider to still hold that intent capable in this spot and compete.

#10 JOHNNY UP fits this condition with the claiming wins last year not counting towards eligibility. Numbers and class support the double digit ML though in terms of form presents an upgrade returning from a complete EX coming off the layoff last month at FG and in terms of pace the projected race shape could flatter their runstyle from off the pace.

#3 TIE BREAKER is a logical type in this race and returning off the layoff at this level for capable connections. The return to claiming company could see them claimed again as was possible back in October and for a horse that has that potential and pattern of layoffs they are likely to come in race ready off the bench. Similar could be said for #4 PRINCIPE CARLO one that has been a bit average this season and requires a return to their top efforts to step up and another one at a shorter number. 

#9 REDEMPTION TIME fits in this race fits off the claim and with their tactical speed. The connection have pointed to this meet and pick this spot, a change when entered earlier this month in a starter allowance at the 6f distance. While they bring in early speed they have yet to be in a race setting the pace and the draw could assist in this case with others bringing in tactical speed to their inside allowing C. Torres options. #1 CHARLESTON has hidden early speed and #3 SUTHERLAND has proven route speed something that should be on display stretching back out around two turns.

#8 FUNNY UNCLE brings in current form and Oaklawn form as a course they have been consistent over in prior season. They return under similar conditions as far as par and purse from the races this season and protected once again to present intent and form allows them to race lighter than some of their main rivals.

#7 GAME KEEPER follows a similar pattern of local and current form and stepping up following a dominant win earlier this month. The connections had the option entered in a starter allowance on Sunday and stuck with this spot.

#10 BRILLIANT MAN shares a common race returning from the 11/28 CD event behind rival REDEMPTION TIME making a first move though similar trip and runstyle from that pair. The connections dipped in for the $50k on the day and based on prior form clearly had Oaklawn in mind when going in for that claim and the Aaron Shorter barn has a pair in this race and off to a solid start with their group of runners. 

#9 ARR PIRATETREASURE used a similar second off sprint to route pattern last season almost pulling off the 5/3 40-1 upset setting the pace, staying on as the BOS through a Very Fast early and late pace to settle for place. They showed that effort was not a one off with the figures and efforts that followed and perhaps even the local maiden races were not out of the blue going back to a TROUBLE+ filled debut at the mile distance as a juvenile.

#2 APPEALING ADDIE is the only runner in this field that has not run for a claiming tag and a class edge on that front. Even some subtle class relief showing up today in the second start of the season and lower par than the return race and honest effort given the WIDE trip and place finish last month. Those factors along with being a lightly raced type support the change here to route for the first time though as good as any to experiment around two turns.

#3 WAR MUSIC comes out of the same 12/15 common race for the second start of the season. A more established 6yo mare has plenty of races and route races to draw from.. On class there is some weakness though has been able to get in for a minor share in the past and similar class concerns follow rivals #1 CASHMERE BABY and  #12 RUNNINTHESTREETS and WAR MUSIC the higher of the set to move up in the selections though all can be used to some degree in the finale. 

Trainer Hess has been on a tear as of late since 1/8 a record of 8-4-1-2 and $4.59 as they return with #8 LEOPARDESS in the opener. As an individual they fit at this level, given a look under similar conditions back on 11/29 a TACTIC- TRAFFIC TROUBLE trip still recording a B- OptixGRADE despite the 5th place outcome. 

#3 ATOMIC DROP projects to be the "speed of the speed" though could find another contentious pace and stamina late (Circle) is a concern. That scenario should assist #6 ZIMBA WARRIOR making their way back to this circuit as well as #7 NOLDE with a strong Q4 Square late kick.

#8 MOOGIE SON has a "longshot" look (ML looks very high) coming back in their second start of the season and form at this level and SA course that fit right on par with their main rivals. Many of those return from the 12/27 common race with MOOGIE SON finding a rider change after the TACTIC- on the day and upgraded with the MOVE X_FLOW. 

P 6 One Last Bet 2 Charmbo Stormy 5 Flight Crew

P 6 Boots 2 Poet Laureate 9 Allstar Playboy

P 2 A Class Yankee 1 Brudon 6 T H Boomtown

P 1 Angostura Hanover 3 Fox Valley Tessa 5 Shoot The Whiskey

P 10 Play Pal 9 Betternredder 8 Streakassedy

T 7 P C Peterbilt 4 Quickerthantheye 9 C Kan Trot

P 2 Chevrons Bypass 6 No Mo Money Honey 5 Chocolateforlunch

P 1 G A Speed Expert 3 Betterdealmein 4 Lotto Max

P 1 Blue Pacific 6 Huntress 4 Dabarndawgswatchin

P 1 Gravitational 2 Theymakeusbetter 8 Why Wouldn’t Ya

P 4 Mother Mary 5 Caughtstealinghome 2 Grand Circuit