Handicapper Tips & Picks

A longshot case for #4 NORTHERN FLAME (former Mystik Dan workmate) coming back off the layoff in a confident spot for the new connections. As a race horse they showed progression starting out their career as a juvenile and tested in graded stakes company. They showed a similar progression through the Oaklawn series of races and showed in the JR Steaks (G3) some distance limitations and a look in the Pat Day Mile (G2) though with adversity and a subtle trip (TRAFFIC MOVE) visuals to suggest they could improve and did just that to close out their 2024 campaign with a career high figures, one that stacks up with others in this group. The return to a one-turn mile should suit this runner and the B. Tessore barn has sent out live this month at GP  with 5 runners - 2 win, 3 place though a different category of race horse (mostly MCL) with this one placed in graded stakes company. 

#11 BLESS MY STARS looked to be given/prep the Suwannee River (G3) race coming off the layoff and first race stateside. She was not supported off the 9-2 ML as the first sign and in running was just allowed to stretch her legs and asked for run late responding gamely to finish in a blanket for minors. She looks very fit and strong works exiting that race coming into this event and based on those visuals could suggest she has some tactical speed. The pattern of SLOG is nothing new and perhaps they have that worked out second off and Irad remains aboard (again intent here!) and all around should be sitting on a peak effort. 

#7 MINOUSHKA also looks pointed to this race and back in with graded stakes company. She showed a ton of class, the win a BTL effort in allowance company at KEE , a rare A- OptixGRADE and logical they would step up to graded stakes off the effort. They did just that holding her own in the Mrs. Revere (G2) - a race that saw the top two finishers set the pace and run 1-2 around the track. MINOUSHKA could benefit from blinkers - have not seen her work since the race, though does not have that change though perhaps could show up with cheek pieces. 

MARTHA WASHINGTON STAKES: 

#1 QUIETSIDE is a legitimate favorite with consistent form, figures and class from the dominant debut win through the efforts in graded stakes company. She has yet to find the rail, the draw today, though with the complexion of this field, speed to the outside and some ground to work with intent the first turn, Santana can establish position in this compact field.

#5 GOWELLS DELIGHT had to show a level of class to make her maiden on debut around two turns by open lengths as the only FTS in that field of fillies back on 12/26. She appears to have come out of the race well working twice since and stakes intent ultimately picking this spot though was entered in the Silverbulletday last weekend.

#4 HER LAUGH is likely to try to establish as the controlling speed and that success up front winning the Untapable Stakes last month at FG. With that said, they were able to settle despite some pressure on the inside through a Very Slow early and Slow late pace and still saw her drifting out late with Axel Concepcion taking both hands to keep her on task to the wire. That stakes win will see her carry the high weight of 122 in this field, seven pounds to her rivals.

A similar Very Slow early and late race shape assisted #3 TAKE CHARGE MILADY in her maiden win over this course a few weeks ago and along with #2 ADEERA exiting the Year’s End Stakes as part of the Very Fast early pace should be looking to at the least keep the fractions honest here. 

SOUTHWEST STAKES (G3):

A lot of attention in here will land on #1 GAMING, the place finisher in the BC Juvenile (G1) higher speed figures though primarily connections with Baffert shipping in and holding a strong record with sophomore runners at Oaklawn Park winning this race 2 of the last 4 years. While GAMING is capable this is a deep field – there are many quality types pointed to this race or tested with the level of competition as well as with the trip given the rail draw.

They might sent as that was effective with J. Hernandez aboard in their debut and not as effective trying to rate with the rail draw in the Los Al Futurity last month. If that is the case they could find a big surprise and test with #10 SPEED KING. This is a horse that has early speed, class and a progressive type flattered with Coal Battle winning the Smarty Jones those two together at the wire in the Springboard Mile with SPEED KING setting a contested honest pace under the RP lights. They have that two turn race to establish fitness and three strong local works since best of what 302 at the half mile distance on 1/18.

#6 SANDMAN takes the rise back up on the stakes ladder following the dominant allowance win last month to set up for this race. With that said, they still need to progress in the speed figure department something that is a test for others in this field, including #4 TIZTASTIC one that going back to the common race, the Street Sense put in a BTL effort and held their own in a contentious version of the KY JC to close out 2024, a race that could continue to be a productive event as horses run back.

We have already seen IMPROVE-ment from #5 RENDER JUDGEMENT with the show finish in the Gun Runner Stakes late month at the FG, a race compromised by the trip starting with the stumble/TROUBLES+ and carried in running to a subtle trip against the race shape and flow-aided winner, Built.

Like GAMING, # PATCH ADAMS will get a lot of attention with the big number recorded back in November at CD though has not been seen since and the race strength appeared WEAK at the time and the group still all in the maiden class including RIPPED one that will be running earlier on the card.