Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 ROLL GYPSY ROLL has shown run this season and upgraded from the two January starts - a BTL effort back on 1/3 followed up with a competitive effort on 1/24 racing X_BIAS and X_FLOW playing a role in the outcome. In addition to current form, their runstyle suits today's race shape as there should be pace (Sun/63) to close into. 

Tough race lacking a stand out and tough to have a lot of confidence on the runners coming out of the recent common races last month and perhaps that moves up #5 MY FAVORITE GIRL as a newer face this season though has the numbers over this course and distance from last season that fits on par.

As far as the local group and coming out of the 1/5 event stretching out here #6 AVALON GIRL finds some subtle changes coming back for this race in the second start of the cycle. That extends back to the debut projecting to improve and at the time debuting at the route, two turn distance, similar for today’s race. Physically #2 MISS WORLD PEACE could handle the distance change and also step up from that event last month, a lightly raced type and second start off the layoff and the debut figure sits on par, a number that perhaps holds upside as it was recorded in her sophomore season.

#7 KARSON KAY is a longshot in this race as number wise she sits below the others though not by much. The added ground is the key angle as she appears a ROUTER type, needing to STRETCH out from the recent sprints. Fitness should not be an issue following the recent WIDE trips. 

#8 MIDNIGHT CHANNEL has been on track to run this meet for the connections. That initial start was rerouted due to the weather conditions prior to the 1/19 race and on that day compromised with KICKBACK and the timing off at the time. They should move up with that race under their belt, return under similar conditions with the move to an outside post and providing that belated intent.

Their stablemate #1 ICARUS takes up the inside and is a reclaim for this barn and connections. They campaigned at Oaklawn back in the 2023 meet and those races fit on par though since that season has often struggled to find that form and could be a test off the bench, giving up time with the layoff and holds only two published works into this race, though it encouraging with Arrieta back aboard the rider that was along in the prior seasons.

#3 FIGHTERTOWN holds the benefit of recency in this second start of the cycle and remains protected making a return to this circuit. They project to show early speed though not a need the lead type and could press or track if others in here decide to send. 

#6 ANTIGRAVITY will be tested at the longer distance and giving up some recency though intent for this meet and level with the connections scratching from a similar starter allowance with the colder track temperature back on 1/19. The intent overall class, speed and local Oaklawn fits on par and in terms of trip should benefit from a contested early pace. The contested early pace could also assist #4 RICKY BOBBY one that does not present an individual edge in this race though on a fair race track there is a scenario the race shape falls in their favor. 

#5 AIR CASTLE wheels right back from a BTL effort under similar conditions earlier this month and fits in line with this group and slightly lower race par. The rider change could be some intent with Torres taking over perhaps looking for a more assertive ride though will note the TROUBLE getting SHUFFLE in TRAFFIC early last race before making a WIDE CLOSE into show.

#2 GEORGIA ON E’MIND also picking up a rider change after a passive ride following a SLOG last month. She tends to be a one paced type, not the most willing to pass horses needs to be put in the race early to compete and should be the tactic here along with intent taking another class DROP in the MCL ranks for this third start of the meet.

#8 REECHO also returns with the rider and class change for this second start and should benefit from the experience and some added foundation. She showed in that debut she did not want to rate and race behind horses picking up a more outer draw here could also look to sent and keep her in the clear or out in front of horses. In this group of established older types she would not require a massive step forward in this second start, something reasonable to be projected from race 1 to 2.

Trainer T. Hornsby has quietly had a good meet and some success with debut runners showing up and noted with #7 PAINT ROCK SURPRIZ in this field – one of the few 4yo runners has steady works and looks fine visually training into this race. 

#4 HESS moves up in tis spot with the change in class and distance along with the form this season. They returned off the layoff with the outside post making a WIDE run into show in N2 claiming company then moved from one post extreme to the other with the rail draw last month, a SLOG and CLOSE continued to GALLOP+ and going back to last year was able to carry their form and figures stretching out in distance.

#5 STUCK N SNOW was questionable at the route distance though given another look on 1/26 with that two turn change, though given the handling and Very Fast early pace from the rail had an excuse. They come back today with a post and class change and should be a learning experience back at the route distance here. The distance is a question mark for #11 DEBATER though one that should move up naturally with the change in class and holds conditioning making their third start of the meet.

The connections have not had much luck this season though could look for #7 OUTLAW RUN to turn things around. This horse should be sitting on a peak effort and in the right spot to compete and contend for the top spot if there ever was one. The race back in December appeared a PREP off the bench and shorter distance and improved with the added ground in the two starts since, both races against open company with a higher par and subtle TRAFFIC trips impacting the outcome. 

#9 CHIPOTLE PEPPER could present the speed of the speed, a flow upgraded from the return race on 1/18 and perhaps positive timing for the McKnight barn picking things up this month with a pair of wins last Friday – and noted both of those wins in gate-to-wire fashion. With that said, there are others in here that share a similar front running style and will need to show up with a top effort in that case to win.

A contested pace should assist #3 UP ON THE EDGE wheeling right back and upgraded from the 2/3 effort all around though finds a softer group with the drop in this second start of the season. The race just 11-days ago was a competitive race for the level with UP ON THE EDGE making a late MOVE after a SLOG, something that has shown to be a pattern for her.

#1A CHIQUITA REINA also should benefit from a contentious pace and looks to be intent for the barn also bringing out #1 TEXAS HOTTIE one with early speed in her own right and returning back from the 187 day layoff and along with the positive return to the claiming level, a better overall fit for their abilities. 

#3 MAN ON THE MOON has shown progression in the return races this season and could be some intent with the return to the route distance. Further intent could follow as that was the plan last Saturday entered at the mile distance under similar conditional claiming level scratched and cross entered here.

#4 NEPAL UP should move up with the conditioning second off and return to claiming company. They turned in a competitive race for the level and par going back to 12/6 opening day and struggled to find a race through scratches before landing in the starter allowance last month, given a flow upgrade from that higher par event as well and the return to Arrieta.

Both #6 ALLO ENRY and #11 GO CATS fit the eligibility conditions for this race off the recent wins to compete here and similar form and runstyle of their best day. The slight freshening edge in recency and established form at the route distance favor GO CATS though still requires a top effort and right trip, noted with the outside post. ALLO ENRY is tested for class at this route distance something that was tested with the stretch out to the two turns earlier this month for #2 FEATHERS ROAD, one that wheels right back here with that race under their belt and tough beat on the day as the top two finished clear together in a photo for the win. 

#7 AUTO GLIDE might have needed the race off the layoff last month, though still put forward an honest effort and one that should carry with fitness right back under similar conditions. The early pace could be more contentious here and noted with common rival #1 MANDOLIN WIND coming back with the rail draw and other front running types projected to keep things honest and upgrade AUTO GLIDE in that projected race shape.

Chris Hartman has another in form runner with #9 WHAT’S UP DOC one that brings in a complementary tracking run style and fitness as well with current form and coming off a win three weeks ago though did have a favorable trip on the day.

#4 TRUCULENT returns from and off a winning effort for the level back on 12/28. That race has held form going forward and with a race noted as the event began after nearly an hour DELAY and followed up with a WEATHER cancellation to the remainder of the card and since that race the connections have been 48-day patient waiting for a spot to run back. Their runstyle is similar to both rivals #2 KEEN CAT and #5 HUGE BIGLY runners coming off higher figures with the longer distance and overall similar form that could see TRUCULENT the higher of that trio on the board. 

Trainer B. Cox has not had as much success this season though in the past has had success with this type of maiden runner noted for #7 TOUGH CUSTOMER here. Based on that local history and off the training visuals looks to be at the right level and distance for their abilities.

#3 RAZORCAT find some changes as they make their return to the races in this sophomore debut. They will pick up Lasix and blinkers along with the key change in class running protected in this MOC level and class relief from productive MSW events in KY closing out 2024.

One of those races their debut back in October at KEE a common race with #5 LURED AWAY one is looking for the right level to clear the maiden condition. They bring in consistent figures, form, foundation and to lean on while still requires a top effort and like the January race could be favored again. The barn will also show up with #8 SOLE LUTE for their second start and holds the route experience off the place finish last month in an off the turf maiden race and this is a slight rise in class with the circuit switch higher par and purse though perhaps some confidence with that move.

#9 LA HOULIGAN has the benefit of local surface distance experience and should benefit from the change in class. The form cycle could also assist second of the cycle and of the sophomore season, though like LURED AWAY is one we might have seen their best (the two with similar numbers) and will be a test if that is good enough to get the job done here. 

This race is competitive with an added challenging element with each running coming off their own layoff lacking recency in the group. In terms of early pace #2 RYVIT and #3 GLENGARRY should contest the lead and a scenario for a best of the speed from that duo or could land #4 SIR WELLINGTON the right trip off that pair – one of the longer layoff types though Esquivel has been riding well for this barn and appears another live assignment here.

Trip along with the layoff is the key for #6 CHASING TIME one that could fall into a similar first run tracking trip. They have recorded consistent figures throughout  their career and often some of those better efforts at Oaklawn. There are some concerns off the layoff showing just two published works since the 12/1 race the most recent on 1/5 over a month ago.

The better efforts is the key for #1 DURANTE one that has held their form this year though number wise requires a return to the efforts from last May to stack up on the win end for this group. Some intent could be in play as the connections have been picky waiting for a spot and for Santana noting a recent scratch from the King Cotton stakes.

#5 RUN CLASSIC fits this race consistent sprint numbers and in the second start of the meet with a rider change as Torres takes over. There was a lack of recency and a local start leading into the 12/20 allowance, a race that has turned out key with Banishing, Kavod and Tejano Twist all winning stakes in their next start and Bourbon Heist picking up the win in $50k claiming company, a race with a similar par to today’s event. 

#5 NO COINCIDENCES has a look in this belated second start of the meet and going back to the 12/15 race day when given the role as the favorite and fit off the maiden form and figures though a complete EX – EXCUSE taking a stumble a few strides out of the gate and taken out of their runstyle before taking in hand late. They have been looking for a spot since the December return and patiently waiting through the weather patterns for this event.

#6 ARR PIRATETREASURE also returns from an EX - EXCUSE on 1/24 completely eliminated at the break and off the BTL visuals at the least cost a better finishing position if not the win on the day. They appeared well meant on the day and ran to it with the return here three weeks later also with the distance change back to the one turn.

#9 CALIENTE STAR has some hurdles stepping up to take on older and winners for the first time in this second career start. With that said, she showed talent breaking her maiden first out.  A trip that was not ideal breaking into the gap from the rail (TROUBLE_S) and making a MOVE through TRAFFIC to CLOSE and draw off from the field. Granted she had a fast pace to run into the effort all around still solid given the adversity and navigating a full field.

#11 MS CARROLL COUNTY also worth a mention with consistent figures and efforts from prior seasons in statebred company to fit on par. The challenge here with the layoff, outside draw and while K. Harr has been aboard in the past with the minor finishes as a rider this season has struggled and all factors to consider in terms of required value compensation, while capable. 

#5 BEEHAVIN has a big look in this spot and beyond fair value should they hold as the third betting choice. Their debut back in October at PID earned a follow a less than ideal trip and overall competitive (B-) effort all things considered. Given a follow off that race they showed up on SA opening day with a solid effort breaking SLOG making a WIDE CLOSE behind the first run winner, Slick. 

Preference to #8 SPOKE with the class DROP off the races this season to #5 ALL JOKES ASIDE a weaker favorite given the timing coming back off a new top just 13-days ago, the type of effort that suggest REGRESS.

#1 COURAGEOUS CLAY finds class relief in this second start of the cycle exiting the open MSW race last month and higher race par events in the prior turf efforts, those races all fit on par as a contender. 

#8 HURRY UP HANNAH fits this race on speed class and pace as well as form returning from a legitimate EX - EXCUSE with the TROUBLE+ last month in the Likely Exchange Stakes and despite adversity still showed a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ in the 7th place outcome.