Handicapper Tips & Picks

The Fire Contention and higher 67 SpeedRate could provide the right dynamic for #1 DEER DISTRICT (Q4 Square) to upset in this compact field. While their better races are buried and required to compete even with the ideal race shape, they hold figures from back in the Spring of 2023 that sit on par. Their overall dirt form/figures not as below as it might appear when looking "on paper" and just at result. In terms of form cycle they require a step up though under similar conditions coming back in just two weeks (intent) and from a TRAFFIC trip in that turf sprint. 

WISHING WELL STAKES: 

#6 MISS ROBERTS brings current form for this race off a BTL effort making a strong BURST after the SLOG in TRAFFIC with the place finish three weeks ago. To further support on class she has started off the WO season in stakes company running in the Star Shoot last April to suggest class intent and later in the WO meet turned in a BTL effort in moving to the turf for the Ontario Colleen (G3) though a full EX - EXCUSE with the TRAFFIC TROUBLE trip playing a role in the outcome.

#5 RICH GOLD can be upgraded from the efforts at this level this season and common races should be sitting on a peak effort. They recorded a BTL back on 1/3 making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW and perhaps some over compensation going out for the lead and into a DUEL on 1/26 taking part in a Fast early pace (a flow upgrade) while WEATHER - racing in the rain with declining track condition on the day something not noted with the "fast" track designation. 

Despite the recent running lines and finishing positions #4 COOL WIND has shown improvement on figure/Grades since starting off the form cycle back on 12/15. The progress into this race along with the big class drop should move them up on the level. trip will be key for a horse that has the SLOG pattern and out to make a late run. 

JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL STAKES: 

#12 MAXIMUM PROMISE showed ability on debut - a B-/BTL effort and carried to a dominant B+ MSW win in their second start showing class not just with the outcome, but also with the improvement less than 30-days following the debut. Rested from that pair of August races, the connections brought him back to training; easy peasy moves allowing him to stretch his legs until turning up the intensity on 12/26 in preparation for the return. The return, a big test off the layoff in the Lecomte (G3) for their seasonal debut as well as the first start against winners. The B- effort noted with the running line and 5th finishing position recording a number consistent with the juvenile figures and could still present a move forward following the previous progressive pattern. Since the Lecomte they have kept up consistent training and initially wanted to see more from the 2/15 drill second best to stablemate Consecrated (running earlier on the day 2/22 FG R2) - however Consecrated was inside and in front of MAXIMUM PROMISE for the move and based on the track results later on the card, it is rare but could start to call out a "track bias" (more likely wind impacted than surface is my working theory) in the morning drills and in that case could factor in the work.