Handicapper Tips & Picks

REBEL STAKES (G2):

The Southwest (G3) being a common race and the race many will key off with the winner #11 SPEED KING coming back today with a different dynamic, timing and shorter odds and the “trip” horse #3 SANDMAN – a potential underlay. The start of the race for SANDMAN was compromising, though worth noting that gate was a more nuanced part of the track profile on Friday/Sat with many making a mess of the break and SANDMAN arguably taking the worst of it, though was not alone in start adversity. After recovering he was able to find a favorable outside tracking position over this course and the race flow to move into late. While he can show as improving type, he still has that looming over him as the prior effort and even recorded figures lack any strong edge – there are things for him to prove and should not be discounted in exchange for a perceived trip.

#6 PUBLISHER is the horse willing to make a longshot case for coming out of the Southwest (G3) and while that might appear reactionary following what happened last weekend at the FG – PUBLISHER while still a maiden had shown improvement race-to-race number wise and in the Southwest (G3) had TROUBLE_S, stumbling and contact and TROUBLE in running. TROUBLE can also be assessed how a horse handles it after and following the race PUBLISHER has trained forward and to my eye best working in company with stablemate #13 TIZTASTIC, the SW show finisher coming into this race.

California being a different path and no real knocks on #5 MADAKET ROAD for this race. While not a flashy type one that has shown a level of consistency. The show finish from three weeks ago was compromised from the TACTIC- in a compact field behind their win and place stablemates. The rider change is notable here with Irad Ortiz Jr. taking over for Baffert and the pair have had their share of success with a pair of G1 wins with Improbable and Mucho Gusto - most recently aboard Gaming in the BC Juvenile (G1) to a place finish part of the overall 66.6% ITM sample. 

The lack of foundation could be the hurdle for #4 HYPNUS in a just a second start while up against an established group though with that said this horse has ability. He showed that in the morning and leading up to their debut, a debut that was initially scheduled for 1/4 at Oaklawn at the mile distance before the 1/16 FG dominate first out showing earning a figure that sits in line with this many in this field and something they should be able to repeat at the least if not step up from.