Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 7 Beachofanera 1 Longshot Panic 9 Bet I Will

P 5 Jabberwocky 1 Powertrain 4 Poseidon Seelster

P 7 Overthinking 3 Wannabeabigstar 2 Fasnacht Hanover

P 8 Abovemypaygrade 2 Moon Control 10 Trinidad

P 1 Jimmy Hooffa 10 Rocky J 8 Cold Creek Pantera

P 9 Write About Now 1 Better Sunset 3 Nightime Dancer

P 10 Lookinlikeamillion 3 Beach Cruiser 7 Beach Cowboy

P 1 Wheels On Fire 7 Speaker Of Peace 3 Jack Panic

P 8 Kolby Two Step 3 Rock And Twist 4 Delightful Leader

P 1 Nazare 2 Stormalong 3 Code Cracker

P 3 Pipewrench Charlie 6 Highlandbeachlover 7 Toronto

#3 STIPULATE has come up short as the favorite though yet to run a bad race. She is likely to show more naturally early speed in this group as there is a lack of established front runner out of the group with racing experience though expect based on the morning works for #4 LAHAR BLOCKADE and #6 BRAKEN GOOD to attempt to show early speed though of the FTS #1 LUCK IS A LADY makes the most positive visuals coming into this race. She did break SLOG in the 1/28 gate drill as a reservation with the rail draw and when inside her workmate for the drill.

#7 BANG BANG FURY also often consistent to a fault with the series of minor finishes though perhaps reuniting with Arrieta and in today’s group with a more back to and outer post those factors should allow her every chance here.

#5 HAPPY TALK turned in a winning effort for the level on 1/19 though had the race flow and on the preferred part of the course to make that late move. With that said, she does not have to be a confirmed closer it is a bit of a guess to decide which tactics will be used today though going back to the 10/30 race, a one turn mile at CD she dueled on sprint like fractions and that effort/trip could be the winning one here.  

There are some reservations with #5 PREACHER’S KID and #8 BRADFORD two horses that tend to run the same race each time and might have found the right group here though still tougher runners to take at shorter numbers with a lot of confidence.

#12 STILLBILLY also has some reservations with the pattern of layoff lines though compensation given with the ML in this case. They will make a belated second start of the season showing run on 12/7 making a WIDE MOVE with the Fast early and late pace in a race won gate to wire by Classic Cinema – a common race with others in this field returning from and to this point has not been productive.

#13 GET AWAY WITH IT being one of those from that 12/7 race and looked to move up back under MCL conditions on 2/3 though had a legitimate EX that day to upgrade here should they draw in and similar look to #14 DENALI LIGHTNING one that might not look too appealing on paper though required the DROP from the debut and can IMPROVE off the MSW effort as another with TROUBLES+ on 1/23 with the rider losing the irons out of the gate.

#4 MO HEARTACHES could also be included for added coverage making their second start, the class change coming back in less than 30-days and from the debut where they WASTED a lot of energy prerace and broke SLOG and took contact at the break and in the opening ¼ showing a MOVE and GALLOP+ despite the running line and finishing position. 

In terms of the entry #1 ATOMIC TONE and #1A SILARDI there are question marks on the pair at the same time both horses hold back class and numbers that make them major players – the main question mark to be asked and answered at the expected shorter number if those horses of the past are the ones in the now. The same value concerns follow #5 ELUSIVE D’ORO one that finds closer to a lateral move on this circuit and if not for the connections fair odds much higher than the ML.

#2 SUPER BRADY does not bring in overwhelming strong form though a fit at this level in the second start off the claim and early speed to fit today’s race shape. Though longer odds should follow #9 TIE BREAKER one that one their best day can show the same early speed and makes their second start of the meet a lateral move from the 1/24 race though a key change in post position as they were more effective outside horses over the summer and would be the time and place for those efforts.

Going back to 1/24 #12 FAMILY TRADITION turned in a winning race on the day had to overcome a SLOG making a WIDE MOVE with a strong CLOSE X_FLOW  behind the ground saving pacesetting winner, Principe Carlo. The connections were quick to return two weeks later and with the route distance, overall placement, timing and in running KICKBACK not ideal on the day and will look to rebound here.

The off the pace run can be a hurdle and something #3 RISK PROFILE must overcome though otherwise a fit. Their recent pattern of breaking SLOG is a liability and should be expected here. #11 JOHNNY UP also with a strong closing kick to make some late noise and one that presents overall upside following an EX – EXCUSE at the FG back on 12/26 and while entered in that 1/24 common race before a scratch could have preferred a quicker return to the races. They also must pick it up in the speed figure department coming in a little light for today’s par and would require a new top to win though not out of the question for a minor especially noting live connections on this circuit.

#6 GOLD BARON is another longshot that is lighter number wise though not by much on their best day and this season have had some excuses with the trips, placement and route distances and when cutback to a sprint last month was given an EX – EXCUSE with a legitimate stumble falling to their nose and knees out of the gate (TROUBLES) and showed run following the compromised start. 

#11 LINE RUNNER turned in a competitive race in their debut last season, a race that was followed up with a rise in class second out with the route distance in April and closed out an abbreviated 2024 season. They returned from the layoff at the higher level and par on 1/26 showing some interest after a SLOG and WIDE trip in a race with the top three running 1-2-3 around the track and minimal change in running order  

#12 COLDASICE fits as the favorite, a consistent type in the speed figure department, no edge on faster race though consistent and returns to the 12.5 level they were claimed out of on 2/1. #8 CHAPTER AND VERSE recorded a similar figure for the 1/3 effort though has not been able to repeat since. The distance change could be the difference maker back at a sprint, though could be another shorter number to find out.

The shorter odds also likely to follow #7 REECHO one that off the debut visuals was expected to show early speed and did just that two weeks ago coming back for a second start. Granted they can be given a flow upgrade, the race flow might have assisted #2 DARETOCATCHLOVE moving up late for place, REECHO would still require an overall faster race.

Value on the sophomores should follow #4 MYSPITTINGIMAGE with a competitive race making a RUSH into a Fast early pace outside horse from the outside draw before a MOVE inside into a Very fast late pace.

#4 CHARBON has a live longshot as they have been able to show improvement with racing and with the experience from the starts this season and progression race to race. They showed up with the front wraps back on last month though perhaps a function of the course conditions and given a FLOW upgrade chasing WIDE on a Very Fast early pace – whereas their common rival #5 RIVETAGE able to save ground.

#9 TIZ WICKED STRONG looks to return to shorter odds and competitive ways showing up in claiming company, similar conditions to the 12/14 event and from the starter allowance last month, a less than ideal TACTIC- along with the higher starter condition played a role in the outcome they can IMPROVE on. #7 GLUCKSTADT does not present value based on the ML though fits all the same going first off the claim, a subtle class rise though a lateral change in terms of par. That could see them competitive right back today while in form and fitness following back to back WIDE trips while holding back numbers that fit on par.

The lack of value also follows #8 FEAR OF UNION (one that will make their second start in against winners with the class drop and layoff lines) and if looking for a similar horse #6 MOUNT CRAIG from the 12/22 common race is the value alternative. They also have their share has the layoff lines to present reservations and not always the most reliable on the win end though unlike FEAR OF UNION most of their career maiden days were in MSW company. Many of those races in contentious Oaklawn events and held their own on numbers and minor finishes – something of a hidden class edge and returning to a top effort those figures sit well above par and running back to those efforts would be the clear horse to beat. 

#2 PUTTING EAGLE has shown the connections who they are and logical to take another class drop. The should move up naturally in today’s field and against some common rivals including #7 PRIDE’S PRINCE from the 1/18 common race one that made an EASY LEAD from the rail stalked by PUTTING EAGLE though neither could hold off the closing First Division on the day. Their Asmussen stablemate #10 MCMUSIC faced PUTTING EAGLE in the 2/7 common race and one that broke SLOG – the top three there went 1-2-3 around the track and from the visuals MCMUSIC should appreciate if nothing else the most to an outside post.

The class DROP comes into play for #3 SAVING HEART and should benefit from that change to move up off the series of races last year as a juvenile. With that said, there are some reservations with the published work pattern this year, just two published drills with spacing between them and the most recent start.  

FTS #11 E MONEY could get overlooked of that group making their debut for the connections. All around will see where they fit though this horse has not done anything wrong in the morning he moves efficiently was efficient out of the gate and has plenty of fitness and stamina. 

#8 ADEERA has been supported by the connections in their career tested in stakes company off the debut win , the stakes races this season as well as intent around two turns. The shift to allowance company back in September moved her back up though clearly not on the level of the race winner, Good Cheer, currently leading the sophomore division.

K. McPeek has the pair in this race, both fit off their limited starts while making the transitions to the route, two turn distance. #4 IN AWE OF JUJU took a lot of support, in my opinion an underlay in the 1/31 allowance company coming off a PERFECT trip debut win. With that said, it was a fine effort all things considered and reasonable like others from that race returning to straight 3yo company and added foundation. #5 DECADENT also won with a PERFECT trip in their debut with a compact field, though a group with some quality back in December at GP. There has been intent to stretch out by the connections noting a scratch when entered at a similar N1 level and 1 1/16 distance at GP on 1/30 – she worked just a few day before and after keeping up the works since. 

#4 STRATO is logical in this spot making their seasonal return and return to statebred company. Going back to their debut they showed run and improved second out and another step forward with the April win. Off that win, they did not have ideal placement and timing taking on open company allowance runners with the meet winding down on 5/5 and stepped up at HS Indy with the place finish a few weeks later closing out their 2024 season.

STRATO brings tactical speed though not a “need the lead” type something that could be a hurdle when it comes down to trip for rival #10 BRAHMS IMAGE in today’s race shape, picking up and outside post. While they have been solid this season, though had to throwdown two hard fought battles and could find another here and still requires a top effort. 

#6 BURLSWORTH will also be tested to step up off their maiden win back on Jan 4^th and continue to improve number wise at the same time. While that must be proven on the track they hold the foundation from the sophomore season and going back to that series of races showed number improvement with each race and would not require a big move to get on the level of the other more established types, many of which tested in their own right on class. 

#1 HAULIN ICE is a standout in this race returning to statebred company and the horse to beat as they look to regain confidence. The connections had prior GP success making the move last out in the Inside Information (G2) a reasonable one for black-type though those hopes and dreams crushed out of the gate by not leaving the gate with the quickness and in running adversity that followed creating a legitimate EX – EXCUSE.

#2 PUNCHY GIRL will look to pair up wins something she has done in the past on this circuit though will find the big test today in stakes company in the face of Haulin Ice. PUNCHY GIRL does hold a statebred stakes win going all the way back to 2022, the Rainbow Miss Stakes.

#4 SULWE has some stakes experience though this will be her first stakes attempt at the sprint distance – the distance of three of her four career wins and the distance of her highest recorded figures to date. In addition to that change, she brings in fitness for this third start back from the layoff and back with Torres the rider aboard for the place finish sprint 6f back in December. 

#5 LAT LONG is logical right back and once again off the form, figures and outcome this season should be favored again. They will look to validate that role though no knocks from the recent starts in that role, could like last out, come down to trip and timing as the difference maker.

The returning #9 GUN PARTY should also find their share of public support coming back off the layoff where big effort is necessary to win giving up recency and local experience. They have been training since late November with the published FG works, the more recent drill appears encouraging though the set from earlier left something to be desired and not the most willing to change leads something they showed in the MSW races last year.

#2 INDY MAGIC also has some hurdles as they make their return from the long layoff and debut at Oaklawn. They have been working locally and with the blinkers off the change for the race and fit based on the abbreviated 2024 campaign on class and speed with the layoff lines also suggesting this could be a horse that must come out race ready.

A couple of longshots to consider: #7 LIAM’S JOURNEY might be worth giving another look to as they show up here and the connections sticking to the dirt following up an legitimate EX - EXCUSE on 1/18 that began with a stumble (TROUBLES+) at the start and early WIDE X_FLOW RUSH unable to get a fair chance to race. A similar upgrade could follow #8 I’M MCDREAMY taken out of their typical runstyle missing the break and moved up with the race flow late. They should aggressive here right from the jump though expect to find company in that role given the complexion of the field a change and something they were able to avoid with the lone trip breaking their maiden in December.

#3 MILLERS RITE did not have an excuse in the races this season though races that could be used for foundation as they stretch back out around two turns with progression this season. Value should follow from the finishing positions including a sneaky good, competitive effort on 1/23 another that had TROUBLE_S and made a MOVE and strong GALLOP+ in an allowance race with a higher par than today’s event.

#5 GOOD LORD is logical in the role of the favorite one that benefit from the class drop first time in MCL company on 1/31 and finds a lower par and claiming level today giving them the edge as a new face when compared to the established #4 PHENOMENAL DREAM and #8 SAFE BET.

#11 MUSEUM QUALITY is another logical type that should have no excuses today returning to this circuit with fitness third start back off the layoff. They bring in progressive figures along with the current form and key class drop to move up naturally. The barn will also send out #6 RUN DEANO RUN fresh off the trainer switch and a pair of subtle excuses - a less subtle EX – EXCUSE on debut. They have some catching up to do with this more established group though case can be made we have not seen their best yet.

#10 PENROD is not overly exciting at the ML though another that should move up naturally with the change in class and timing second off as one that likely needed the January race - they worked just 4 days before that start and appears to have come out of the race well with the pair of half mile drills since and intent retaining Santana this afternoon. 

BUENA VISTA STAKES (G2): 

#3 LIGURIA could have been pointed to this stakes race given the effort off the bench last month in the Megahertz (G3) to build off of. She did not run anything near to a figure she is capable of giving her the space to move up today. She has the class with the Jimmy Durante (G3) win and a competitive effort (B-) in a higher level QEII (G1) event closing out 2024 at KEE. The race shape should set up for her runstyle and in capable hands with F. Prat returning to the saddle. 

FRANK E. KILROE MILE (G1):

This race should present value taking on the ML favorites in today's race shape and G1 level:

#4 FORMIDABLE MAN is a value alternative as they should move up returning as a flow upgrade as part of the Very Fast early pace in the Pegasus Turf (G1) at GP in their seasonal return. They are not a "need the lead" type especially at the flat mile, though bring in early speed something that is often required on this course for the distance. 

#7 ALMENDARES must prove themselves from a class standpoint though fair odds at the ML suggestion to take a stab. Their runstyle should fit today's race shape and timing under A. Fresu taking back over today. They could also appreciate the return to SA and freshening off bench capable of getting back on track. The Seabiscuit (G2) was not their day restless in the GATE and unable to overcome (TACTIC-) the outside post/WIDE.