Handicapper Tips & Picks

Tough race to have a lot of confidence though should move up runners making a first appearance at this MCL level starting with #5 MIDWAY VOW a slight change in class from the races this season in the third start of the cycle. She can be given a subtle flow upgrade from the 2/14 start around two turns part of the early pace and going back to last season was consistently running figures on par and on the higher end from the group in this field.

#6 ALLTAIL must improve though a lightly race 3yo with a first start in for this claiming tag. She is another with a subtle flow upgrade from the 1/31 maiden race part of the Fast early pace drawing the rail on the day. All around there was not much between her and #4 OPEN FLAME on the day OPEN FLAME returned with an improve effort all around with the place finish in a less than ideal scenario last month, though has struggled to improve in the speed figure department – the knock here on the win end as the projected favorite.

OPEN FLAME could be right there again though could make a similar case for #1 AUNT ALEX one that has held their form this season. AUNT ALEX ran at a slightly higher level on 2/14 - the par lighter in the 2/17 common race something that move up #3 ACTIN UP when they entered and finding a higher par today creates an additional hurdle. 

#6 MISS MACY has been consistent on the track and at the MSW level giving her the class edge over others that have run for a tag even while recording similar speed figures. The projected shorter odds on MISS MACY are less exciting as she has the other advantages though still like many in this field must prove herself at the route distance going two turns for the first time.

#7 KAVA holds the route experience and while some of her more competitive efforts last season were at the MCL level they were also contested around two turns. That could be the key here in this third start back off the layoff and that key distance change.

#4 PARIS ACCORD has shown some class weakness at the MSW level at the same time catches a lower race par today and could be taken closer to a lateral move, though still requires a top effort. Her sophomore stablemate #1 CONFIRMED FORGERY will transition to the route distance though has shown run in the two starts this season – overall efforts and visuals similar to rival #2 BEECHYA the pair taking the same path of common races into this event and as the ML suggests CONFIRMED FORGERY projects the higher of the two. 

#2 H. T. XENA has a longshot look with back numbers that fit on par, the key change in class from her races to date finding hidden class relief. She also presents a move forward in this second start back off the layoff from the 1/31 sprint breaking SLOG showing enough late interest to support going forward.

The barn will also be represented with #8 BIG BAD DIVA finding a lateral change in class when assessing par coming into this event first off the claim. She has held her form and figures this season and consistent at the route distance. She has also shown a level of consistency when it comes to breaking SLOG – factors that played a role in the minor finishes this season and again to consider on value when trip is required.

In terms of the Asmussen pair #4 SUPER ENTICING holds the benefit of local experience and class edge over #7 BOLTORO one that comes in with current competitive form given a slight rise showing up on this circuit. 

#6 CAN’T STOP WILLIS should present value and brings upside with buried form off their races to date. They showed run on debut with adversity from the rail and projected to IMPROVE doing just that despite the running line and finishing position in September moved up on speed figures. That race was followed up with a legitimate EX _ EXCUSE at KEE in October and closed out 2024. They returned off the layoff with an improved effort and outcome at this course and distance in January though notable off the layoff with the front wraps added and could look for a change here.  

#1 DARROW would be no surprise to win this race though off the first two starts is less intriguing at a shorter number and today’s par sits higher than the 2/2 event they with others including #5 BAYOU BLITZ  with the WIDE trip return from to compete here. #7 AMBITION had some TROUBLE along the inside early in that 2/2 event and likely to bring more early speed today though overall must step forward. Their stablemate #3 LAMBO is  also less exciting at the ML could take a step forward in this second start back from the layoff and stretching out in distance and would be the time and place for them.

#8 LEBOMBO comes into this race with the route foundation and recent minor awards that could translate here and could also gather more attention than the ML indicates. This spot is a step back up the class ladder and off a flow aided place finish with the 2/1 race slowing late – though could find a similar dynamic for their late run to get another underneath slice. 

#3 CHUN MONEY could have needed the start coming off the layoff and off the claim. Heading into the 1/31 race they worked four days earlier and since the race has kept up works into this start. Their back numbers and prior efforts under similar par fit in line to compete with this group and should be a live call for De La Cruz, a rider that has had success for Contreras over the years at OP with a positive ROI.

They will meet a common rival with #1 LEVEE WAS DRY from that January event another that could have required the start and given a X_FLOW upgrade and perhaps another upgrade with the rider change as Santana takes over. The early pace could be contentious with the complexion of this field including #9 NOTHING BUT HEIR another flow upgrade as they cut back from the route last month.

A contentious early pace should assist #2 MELLIFLUOUS one that fits however does not show a published work since their race back in January at GP and the knock coming into this race overall and especially if shorter odds as projected by the ML follow. #10 MY KID SYD also has been effective with pace to chase and some upside in their own right making a second start of the cycle and from a subtle trip in MSW company last month. 

#2 UP THE CREEK looks to have found the right spot to compete returning from a slight break to make her first start of the year. She raced under a similar par breaking her maiden back in November and much higher par in the two starts that followed off the claim playing a role in the outcome.

#3 BELLE CHERIE fits into this race with current form though one that tends to race one paced (PLODDY) requiring things to fall in her favor to win, not the ideal set up for a shorter price in this race, though kept in the mix. Similar value reservations could follow her former stablemate #4 MUSICAL PRAYER into this race for the new connections though in form that should hold right back in this spot.

The race flow from 2/2 carried MUSICAL PRAYER and #8 CHICA ARMA to some extent and from that race and upgrade to #6 VAHALLA VIXEN part of the early DUEL and Fast early pace.  From the outside post that should see #11 TAKER BACK also forward to have their best chance to compete today. 

5.5f can be a specialty distance and while most of the races at the distance for #2 COMMITTEE OF ONE were races on or taken off the turf their form fits for this level and the run style that could work out the right trip.

That includes what could be a contentious early including their sophomore stablemate #5 PERFECT MAGIC and to contest #4 GO CAPTAIN one that is returning here under similar conditions from the two starts this season though a lower race par to move up naturally. GO CAPTAIN brings in current form to compete and while an underlay given the conditions on 1/23 they are upgraded from that dynamic, though still requires a top effort and a potential speed of the speed effort to win here.

Both #7 RED STATE and #8 ROWDY RIOT scratched from a 6f allowance on 1/23 where the pair had a look and the connections opting to run here instead. Today’s dynamic could assist RED STATE with the draw and value over ROWDY RIOT assessing the ML as the two stack up similar on class and speed figures – both usable in this event. 

#3 NORTHERN CHILL could present the most confirmed front runner in this field and a scenario where they are able to get clear and hold a pace advantage on the front end. 

MIRACLE WORKER started out their season here back on 12/21 a common allowance race with #7 BIG PRODUCER returning to make their belated second start of the season.  Move forward is required though has the October effort back at KEE on par for a share and perhaps even some upside off that race showing progression at the time as still a lightly raced maturing sophomore.

Number wise there is not much between the two S. Asmussen runners though on class #6 GOLD SWEEP exits higher par and purse events to #1 COPPER STORM one that arguably takes a rise to run on this circuit despite racing first time in their career for the claiming tag. GOLD SWEEP also first time in for the claiming tag and not the most encouraging move though overall as a runner that has not shown progression since the juvenile figures, the drop is the right move to place them where they fit. 

#6 ABSINTHE held a class edge into the January race something that carried with the win on the day while giving up recency first off the layoff. She had to show up with a top effort to get the win and hold over a game challenge in the place finishing Ashburn Alley and in that case respect she has been given 48-days to recover before coming back along with the stretch out in distance – enough rest though not too much to create an additional layoff line.

Her stablemate #2 FLASHY LASS makes belated return to Oaklawn and one that struggled mostly when it came to timing and trip last seasons. That pattern of adversity is nothing new for her and continued in the G3 Houston Ladies Classic, the most recent start that began from the gate unprepared at the start and only continued in running that did not allow for her best chance on the day to improve on here.

In terms of #3 MISS HEBRIDES one that brings in solid figures however each time earned under favorable conditions from flow to bias. And with a tactic of showing early speed again should find company in that role given the others in this field including #4 NORMANDY QUEEN showing up second off and stretching out from the turf race and Fast early pace back in Jan at SA.

Overall class and figures are lighter on #8 INSENSITIVE however that contentious early pace should assist her runstyle to work in for a minor at double digit odds. 

#1 TIME ANDBEYOND is a long time maiden though back under conditions that should allow them their best change to pick up that belated win. They have come up short as the favorite under similar conditions going back to April last year and the return in December though both races have that long layoff that split them in common as a subtle excuse.

Their stablemate #4 CONWAY will debut here and while giving up experience could compete off their visuals. The gate was a hurdle breaking SLOG on 2/8 though recovered inside of their workmate earning a solid clocking and after another solid move in company on 2/16 it was encouraging they went back to the gate on 2/24 though did not see that drill to note if improvement on efficiency.

#6 HEY MISTER has shown run in the morning and could compete off those visuals here as a new face. The connections have had to be patient this season entered back in a SB juvenile MSW event back in December working just two days later on 12/22 however a gap in the published series followed until late January though has been consistent since and plenty of fitness, conditioning will not be the hurdle today.

There has been less of an excuse at this level for #3 GOD COUNTRY one that is not impossible though seems to nee things in their favor on the win end though should be along for a share and similar to carry for #8 PEARCY ROAD  not much between them overall exiting the 2/1 common race.

#7 MIRACLE MACK return to the MCL level for the first time since their debut last season and coming back this year has shown progression and arguably picking up a better draw with Santana, a local rider taking over today. 

#7 RICH GOLD is a bit of a stab though should be price compensation in that case. Speed figure wise they will a require a return to their stronger efforts than the three starts this season, though there is reason to suggest they can move up off the local starts this meet. The 1/3 effort was BTL racing X_FLOW followed up with a flow upgrade over compensation taking part in the early DUEL and Fast early pace. There was less of a complete excuse on 2/22 though did have some TRAFFIC and slightly higher par now returning with prior rider in Herrera.