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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun March 9th, 2025

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Emily's Analysis

Oaklawn Race 1

Post Time 12:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 BLACK APPLE will make a belated second start of the season and key distance change with the STRETCH out, something that has been the plan though tough to find the right spot for them with track conditions and rescheduled races since the December start.

#3 DINNER AT CRUMPIES should move up second start off the layoff and key change in distance STRETCH out where they have bene more effecting in the past and prior seasons. Last year they turned in some strong efforts, winning type efforts, though still that win eluded them and will be looking to get their picture taken today for the first time since April 2022.

#4 MAN IN THE CAN brings in the pattern of layoff lines with some reservations, though at the same time makes for a fit in this group and the conditioning along with Bejarano back aboard. In the prior route races, they showed early speed and in the case here they could require a “BOS” effort and top effort as the early pace should be honest even with this compact field and kept to task on the lead with stablemate #5 STRING THEORY and #1 BETTYS CASH along the rail stretching out with legitimate sprint speed.

Trip could suit #6 READY SHOES though still a test of class and bringing a top effort. That was the case for them coming off the layoff back on 1/26 though notable on that day for a horse that has often fired their top effort first off the layoff and the barn has that niche with layoff returning runners. 

Oaklawn Race 2

Post Time 1:03 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

A tough race with many horses lightly raced, needing to show more than they have and of that group many giving up recency off layoffs. That could just created the much needed scenario for longtime maiden #8 SAFE BET to catch the right group. They wheel right back often what could be taken as a near “excuse” last week taken WIDE after the SLOG and not asked for their best and when asked late responded with a late MOVE. All around did not have their best chance to compete on the day.

Leaning on recency, #10 VINEY debuted against older MSW company back on Jan 4 creating a “prep” like scenario while also taking KICKBACK behind horses something that followed with the rail draw coming back on 1/23. They wheeled right back for the 2/1 race and with upside moving outside horses on the day though caught other adversity chasing WIDE X_FLOW – the pacesetters finishing in the back of the field while the winner, Tango Mike Mike won from off the pace. At the time of this analysis the race produced one next out winner another to finish second with a winning type photo finish effort. The timing could be a further key given 36-days with those first three starts all withing 30-days.

#12 TO TOO TWENTYTWO shares a common race with VINEY back on 1/23 in statebred MSW company the race they return from here with some changes. Class being key as that was a hurdle stepping from a more competitive race in MCL company for their December debut. They will also pick up blinkers and Bejarano for this return and one that with a slight step up from the debut number, a reasonable ask should be right on par with this level. Others from that 1/23 race and noted KICKBACK for #5 CUTTING CLASS that day as they were making their debut – still one with some gate issues. The blinkers on and rider change could suggest intent, though still must prove it on the two week turnaround. 

Oaklawn Race 3

Post Time 1:35 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#10 COMMANDER DIXIE had a big look on debut training sneaky well and showed run despite the running line and finishing position. A lot of their race could have been lost before the start between the WARMUP and WASTED a lot of energy prerace. That carried to a slow start and RUSH checking behind horses in TRAFFIC TROUBLE+ showing interest in a compromised EX – EXCUSE trip on debut. They appear to come out of the race well, recording two published drills since to step up back under similar conditions for this second start.

#6 FLAMING GLORY makes a belated return and key change in class with the DROP to MCL company, visuals to support from the MSW races last season. She comes into this race with steady local works and works with the blinkers off, the change for this race.  Number wise she is capable of recorded numbers on par and numbers in line if not higher than assigned ML favorite #5 DINAH’S GIRL one to keep in the mix though at a shorter number again worth taking on the win end and similar to carry for #2 LA DINAMITA and #7 BLUE SAZZLER also competitive underneath in their races to date under similar conditions though shorter on the win end without excuse.

#8 PAYTON’S BEAUTY is a longshot if more for the COLD connections than the ability of the horse. This filly has shown run since the juvenile debut and only has improved with each start and returns to the level for her to compete

Oaklawn Race 4

Post Time 2:06 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Fundamentally it is tough to take runners under these conditions off long layoffs as the case with #1 SHOUT IT OUT showing up here. That said, the barn in a limited sample has had success with this type of runner and showing up on this circuit with a higher purse could suggest further intent.

#9 SINGING EMMA should be sitting on a peak effort off the races this season and subtle changes wheeling right back to a sprint with De La Cruz back aboard. Trip will be key as one has some early speed and an early pace that could be contentious with the complexion of this field.

That includes the Ward trained #5 PROUD MULE finding a subtle change in class drop from open claiming and higher par as well as X_FLOW upgrade from the 1/24 race, a race won by their stablemate Candy Arcade  from off the pace. 

Oaklawn Race 5

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 FASHION RAGE is moving forward in the third start of the cycle and appears some intent on the quick turnaround back on this circuit with a subtle drop. The class drop to run for $20k is less concerning in this racing for $30k back in late January with a passive ride on the day behind their stablemate pacesetting winner, Insightful Miss.

The drop after a two month layoff could be a bit concerning in the case for #9 EDISTRUDIS claimed in October for the higher tag. That said, she has shown some class weakness at this higher level allowance races and those events likely catching a higher par and this spot should allow every chance to compete and the $20k tag can almost certainly see a claim and from that standpoint along with picking up a solid check with the place finish in allowance company closing out 2024 makes financial sense.

#1 DIVINE GAL is placed at the right level to compete and comes into this race in form off the 45-day freshening something to note with the recent finishing positions and running lines that could give the impression of a runner “off form”  and not the case. She recorded a solid number at a higher par off the layoff in November at CD compromised with the WIDE trip over an off track at the mile distance in December and another competitive race with a less than ideal inside trip and TACTIC- in January something to consider though price compensation in play with the rail draw today. 

Oaklawn Race 6

Post Time 3:10 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Both Peter Miller trainees fit in this race and while #8 DEMOTIVATE looks to get the bulk of the attention, #4 MISCHELOF finds class relief the right move coming back today second start of the season and second off the claim. Their form and figures with competitive races under a similar par fit here to back up the intent.  The intent is questionable with the drop for #2 TOUCH OF GLAM back in two weeks first time for a tag and one that also must run a new top as well coming in with lighter numbers than others in this field.

The other Miller, #9 MILLERS RITE brings in current form to this race and the key class drop off their races this season. The right move and the timing is less than of a concern coming back in a week from the TROUBLE trip on 3/1 when giving up 37-days recency on the day.

The change in class and race-to-race pattern follows #6 SHATTUCK from a BTL effort with the place finish in that 2/3 common race and a CLOSE under N2 condition back in December. While all of that makes them logical here, the ML could see them race as the shorter odds in their entire career.

#7 INDY CHARGE stakes a step up from their MCL win in December though a drop back down from the starter allowance last month. Another move forward and new top is required to win though given a X_FLOW upgrade pressed on a Very Fast early pace and will look to take this field as far as they can on the front end.  

Oaklawn Race 7

Post Time 3:41 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This is a competitive race and the conditions allow for horses taking different paths into this event and the inclination to find a horse coming into this race flying under the radar as all appear capable on their best day. The race shape could suit #3 AUTO GLIDE one that has excelled under similar conditions in the past and brings in current form from the starter allowance races in this third start of the cycle.

The race conditions and timing could also move up #7 CALIBRATE making their belated second start and seasonal debut. They closed out the Hawthorne season with a BTL effort on the turf followed up with a pair of WIDE trips playing a role in the outcome and from prior seasons CALIBRATE has form and figures to fit with today’s par.

#8 HAPPY STRIKE is a big longshot in this race, their best numbers sit below par and from the others showing up on their best day. With that said, they should be sitting on a peak effort and if able to step up in the number department this could be the time and place. They recorded a top effort with the 12/20 win followed up with the two rail draw races and subtle trips in each along with timing playing a role in the outcome. 

Oaklawn Race 8

Post Time 4:12 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

In terms of the S. Asmussen pair, #9 LA FANTASTICA has been the most consistent though perhaps to a fault with the series of minor finishes and still lacking a “winning” type effort or excuse along the way. That could be enough for another share and perhaps finds the right group to win here though still would try to get creative with others. That could be as close as her stablemate #3 SERAPHIA making a seasonal return and would be the time for a top effort. The connections have set her up for the two turn distance and physically suited to the route of ground as they return from the two month break and steady works since the 12/26 FG race.

#6 ACHIEVE has the benefit of a race over this course and upside from that trip scenario from 1/26 with the rail draw. The inside trip never looked comfortable while rating behind horses, perhaps reason for the change here and the outcome of the race saw the pacesetters finish 1-2-3, a similar minimal change in running order and pacesetting winner going back to the 12/15 start.

#10 BEE BLUFF is a good looking fill and has the foundation and competitive efforts to show up today with a top effort. That is required in terms of figures on the lower end of par though does appear intent with the timing, distance and addition of the blinkers for this race. 

Oaklawn Race 9

Post Time 4:46 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

In terms of #4 TAXED as the ML favorite and logical even the horse to beat showing up with a top effort. The challenge in this case is a top effort has eluded her this season and while some excuses when it came down to smaller fields and race shapes she still requires a speed figure bump to win her. Where TAXED has the edge on class #2 TANYA SHOWERS has the edge on form and figures. She is consistent type and rarely out of the money and even coming back from the Bugler stakes a blanket for the minors in the 5th place outcome. She fits here though not excitement at 3-1. #7 CONDENSATION carries the same excitement on value with the ML also part of the blanket minor finish in the Bugler stakes last month. The two races where she had been more competitive while on or near the lead since the barn change were flow aided Slow/Very slow race shapes unlikely to see that here especially with #9 WON HAPPY MAMA in the field and drawn outside.

#3 EFFORTLESSLYELGANT has had some gate uses as of late and even in the return drill on 2/14 though still carries tactical speed and for this sprint race and complexion of this field could fall into the right trip. She will return with a rider change as Leparoux taking over a rider that once upon a time was a main rider for Norm Casse as Santana sticks with #8 PHAROAH’S HEART one that one her best day has the class edge and higher figures in the field, though like TAXED will be tested to find those efforts with the quickness wheeling back in two weeks today from the WIDE trip allowance under similar par with the show finish. 

Oaklawn Race 10

Post Time 5:20 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The recent efforts and speed figures make #3 G T FIVE HUNDRED a main player though coming in off a LONE trip win and softer race flow with the rise in class, makes for a favorite that lacks value in that role. #7 MEDIA MOGUL came up short of a win and winning effort under similar allowance conditions last year though has those efforts in him and could present an edge with others in this field and intent with the layoff return and C. Torres aboard.

#1 BOURBON’S FAULT could be sneaky player in this race. He has some class and races at this level this season with progressive form coming into this event. They will also find a change to the one turn distance. The maiden win and higher figure back last fall at CD recorded figures on par and ere the most recent one turn races outside of that would be looking at the debut – a competitive WIDE trip show finish as a juvenile and the layoff return starting off the sophomore season last June.

#4 SHACKLEFORD STRONG is probably in this race as a prep coming back off the layoff and higher class par and purse than any prior start to date. With that said, this is a game race horse that when he’s in top form this better races fit with this group and with others taking rises in class with SHACKLEFORD STRONG he appears at the least to bring plenty of price compensation.