Handicapper Tips & Picks

NHC DAY 1 MANDATORY RACE:

As the projected favorite, #6 MAGNIFICENT MILE is no value in that role, no edge on speed and class and in terms of race shape a closer type that is not given any favors with today's race shape. 

Their stablemate #5 MARGIN OF AIR fits with the race shape and current trend with the 7-day turnaround - since the start of the 2025 year at AQU, L. Rice with runners showing up on less than 10-days fit with a $1.03 positive ROI - 27% winners, 55% in the exacta. In terms of race shape, MARGIN OF AIR has enough tactical speed and finishing ability (Standard Q1 Square) to sit off the Q1 Circles of the entry #1 UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL/#1A MAGNOLIA MIDNIGHT. 

NHC DAY 1 MANDATORY RACE:

Separting the top 3 on the ML and likely to hold that status at post time: #8 SHE'S A TEMPEST is the only runner in the field ABOVE on Speed and Plot and ABOVE+ on Class - factors along with current form to present a contender. In terms of play that might not present the number required or needed and in that case would allow that to dictate play as the double digit runners all kinda "stabby" and overall pluses and minuses making them tougher to separate without a toteboard. 

NHC DAY 1 MANDATORY RACE:

#6 BLOW TORCH is a bit of a stab though a case can be made they have had an “excuse” in each race this season from post position to trips to racing against the course profile or flow and under a higher condition and par to today’s event as well. Things could come together today given the class change as well as intent with that move for the connections.

#9 COST BASIS should be live here following an every other pattern of improving races, the return to the sprint as a flow upgrade staying on through a Very Fast (early and late) pace two weeks ago. COST BASIS holds a pair of wins over this course and 6f distance under a similar conditional claiming level events in prior seasons.

#12 DERBY DATE feels like the safe option in this group given current for and finishing positions along with the connections. They returned in a competitive place finish behind the win streaking Raymond back in January and followed that up with a competitive race last month, a race that had trip adversity in the 4^th place result from the TROUBLE_S to TRAFFIC in running. The lack of value is less exciting to put on top though a similar lack of value carry in this case for both #3 WORTH LOOKING and #5 DR. SOULFIRE two runners also logical and capable – no real big knocks other than the projected odds. 

NHC DAY 1 MANDATORY RACE:

The Fire Contention and average 34 SpeedRate does not necessarily play for or against ML favorite #1 AGENCY though unlikely a playable contest horse at the projected number.

#3 RHYTHEM ON STAGE brings in current form a B- OptixGRADE with TACTIC- NO_PUSH GALLOP+ on 1/17 and X_FLOW WIDE CLOSE on 2/9. The should have pace to close into (Q4 Square) though still the type that needs a trip, and as a player, the right number to play. 

#5 AWESOME RHYTHM has a "win" at this level from last May and coming back the turf , the intent following up the layoff in January and overall consistent figure under a slightly higher par for the open $32k condition. 

The #7 HULA CANDY from 2024 could be assessed as the horse to beat in this race. Their form this season and since the layoff has not been as strong. With that said, there are some positive in the seconds tart of the cycle the first time of that pattern since last year and upside from the recent route turf races with WIDE trips in both. 

#9 BALDORO was claimed at this level and from a competitive race with less than ideal TACTIC- from the rail back on 2/9 and did not appear intent (PREP WIDE NO_PUSH) wheeling back first off the claim racing protected on 2/29 and returns with a rider change that should not the same attention as Prat. The barn has used Aguilar in the past and with price horses and Aguliar on their own has been quietly riding well in 2025 - while only 11.86% win is 52.54% ITM. 

NHC DAY 1 MANDATORY RACE:

Looking at recent Plot History, Squares are dominate and even a pattern of Quad II/IV Squares. #10 YES THIS TIME falls into that pattern and should hold a class edge (ABOVE+) making the change where as others in the main body of the field (AE's #11 WOODCOCK FLIGHT and #12 Q F SEVENTY FIVE also class change) while also Above on Speed. 

Many of the others return to this level and from the 2/8 common race - the race shape and X_FLOW upgraded both #2 ARTIE'S ANGEL and #8 EDDIE THE GREAT both Q4 Squares.  

NHC DAY MANDATORY RACE: 

In terms of the ML favorite, #6 HOPE JOE'S RIGHT they fit in that role as an individual if anything they could have to overcome the race dynamic, a slight unique scenario with the Sun Contention and higher 67 SpeedRate. 

There are a few horses that have run credible races under a similar dynamic in the past that should be higher odds if needed, looking at alternatives in #2 AZTECA'S GOLD (longshot, improve second off fits on class/speed); #8 MEMPHIS PHAROAH (X_FLOW upgrade from both the 12/21 and 1/26 races); #9 ATLANTIC DANCER (holds a "winning" B OptixGRADE effort at this level 8/26 ELP turf with similar par and had been prioted following returning in a higher $50k N2 sneaky trip back on 1/26 scratched at this level last month, 2/21)