Handicapper Tips & Picks

NHC DAY 2 MANDATORY RACE:

This race could be cut down to a few contenders and without a "standout" or strong ML favorite there are likely going to be a few around similar odds and value should be key. #8 MO FOX GIVEN checks the boxes of a contender in this race and buried form with the Past 3 Runlines  and finishing positions. With upside from those races in their own way from class to surface to distance she returns under similar conditions, par/purse, where she has been competitive in the past. Checking those boxes and holding recency compared to some others in this field with intent to run at GP looking for TURF back in January. She has trained forwardly and positive rider change J. Velazquez/M. Casse this GP season have been live in a smaller sample. 

NHC DAY 2 MANDATORY RACE:

The approach to this race is one of process of elimination. Many in this group return from the 2/16 common race - a race with a BLANKET finish and not a race I would be interested in taking a runner out of. The 2/12 event is another common race, a slightly higher claiming level presenting some intrigue but overall a lateral change to look elsewhere. 

#7 THE GREAT OSCAR brings in upside and respect the move from these connections to show up in this spot. They debuted at TAM for $25k ran a game race and after escaping without a claim they stayed protected in MSW company. Each race was competitive - the grass race on 1/18 B-/IMPROVE and following upside from the trip and against the dynamic on 2/21. The move back to $25k appears the right move and the circuit switch at the least presents a higher purse. 

Both #5 BATTLE ON and #10 FOLKTALE present as new faces and tough to knock on that front while in the hands of capable connections for this category. While BATTLE ON is not technically a FTS they can almost be treated as such.

#3 MILAZZO could step up and given the longer odds will not be too harsh especially in the face of other dismissals. MILAZZO debuted in MSW company wheeled back in 10-day with the race taken off the turf to suggest some intent. That race par from 3/5 is on the lower side and would need a move forward from the two races though going in the forward direction and not far from the other established types with races under today's conditions. 

NHC DAY 2 MANDATORY RACE:

It is not an easy task to step up off a maiden win taking on winners for the first time though a set of quality fillies that could make that transition. #9 PLINKO CHIP has shown improvement number wise with each race and foundation with each start along with versatility as nothing has been handed to her from the WIDE trip on debut and the far outside or rail draw in the starts this season.

#5 SHE’S A DREAMER also overcoming the post positions from a solid figure with the rail draw and SLOG on debut to the outside post with the circuit switch just two weeks later for the 2/2 maiden win, flattered with PLINKO CHIP coming back to win. While they will be required for hold the recorded tip from the maiden score to compete with the established group, she has been given time and one that has been able to pass horses, something that could be key here as the early pace could be contentious especially with #1 FLY LIKE THE WIND along the rail and #7 TIMBAVATI among others with natural early speed.

#12 QUEEN MALLARD showed run last season and encouraging coming back from the layoff in December to record a new top effort. She clearly was well-prepared and off that big effort has been given plenty of time before returning here and has the experience with the outside draw they fall into again, though trip still required all around. 

NHC DAY 2 MANDATORY RACE:

There is a scenario especially if #13 BOLT AT MIDMIGHT is unable to draw in off the AE where Santana puts #2 KING RUSSELL in race likely tracking stretch out rail runner #1 CALIFORNIA TIGER and sit the right trip. That pace scenario along with their class and speed figures could come together in the right time and place to land the belated second career win. As far as current form they entered this race in the third start of the cycle and from a place finish last month tracking a Fast early and late pace to build fitness for a top effort today.

The pacesetting winner of that 2/3 race Bedard was represented by Brad Cox/C. Torres the team represented here with #12 ETHAN ENERGY. While they are not always the best gate horse all around an honest race horse and given the class rise coming back for the second start of the year and sneaky eligibility from that win last month to run in this allowance conditions with the ship could signal intent. As noted the gate issues and pattern of breaking SLOG from last year, that followed in the 1/12 Tampa race though quickly and on their own recovered putting themselves in the race before going on to win.

#4 MENA comes back from two honest efforts under similar N1 allowance conditions though does catch a slightly higher par today and slightly flow aided in those two starts with projected shorter odds – things to factor on value not necessarily “pick the winner” handicapping. #6 DANCE SOME MO is a little lighter when it comes to class though recorded a similar figure to the recent numbers of MENA during the early part of the meet.

Overall class and figures are lighter on #8 HARLEEZY one that probably would be better served in a softer spot to pick up a win though with that said returns back under N1 allowance conditions in this second start off the layoff while upgraded from the 2/23 race day where they took a legit stumble coming out of the gate – a pattern for many on that day creating a rare track bias – and tough to hold against them showing run making a MOVE after.

NHC DAY 2 MANDATORY RACE:

Tampa does not run many turf sprints and taking an approach in this race to find the horse that has been waiting, and waiting and waiting for a race to run at this track and distance that also fits as a contender. #6 SNOWNAME kinda has that look. This is a horse that started out at TAM last year improved with racing winning third off and showed intent to run in a 5f turf sprint at that time as they were also entered at GP on 3/3 (2024). Off that race took a step up in class and eventually did show up on the GP turf, a stakes race in May and the timing off that race might have played against timing coming off a "winning" B effort on 4/14 and shortly after the Roar Stakes had the long 222-day layoff they returned from this January. That 1/29 effort was a legitimate EX and less than ideal timing and distance. They follow a similar quick turnaround though a different pattern where second off where upside could follow from the 3/8 trip and with the rider change today back to Menses the rider that was aboard for the competitive races last season. 

NHC DAY 2 MANDATORY RACE:

Talking to Kevin Costello after First Chance/Last Chance as a reminder in these tourneys when push comes to shove "you're either the stabber, or the stabbed; so might as well be holding the knife..." With that will look at the two longest ML in the field and make the case. In this case both return from the 2/14 common race back under similar conditions though different timing and sneaky historical patterns for both:

#3 BARBSDREAMCOMETRUE was making her first start back off the layoff in that 2/14 race and could have needed the start with a work since and upside moving off the rail. She showed some run after breaking SLOG with a slight MOVE and not asked for her best race. That was her first start back at TAMP since breaking her maiden over the course and 6f distance on debut and came back (bet down from the ML) to win the 3/27 allowance - a strong effort on class/figures and visuals racing in the rain (WEATHER) and could find a similar trip here with that race speed figure wise on of the highest in the field - at least the highest recorded at TAM (#10 SEA ART recorded two figures higher back in 2022 at GP) Trainer T. Padilla historically has a strong March at TAM compared to the other months and could be the time they pop up. 

#4 KANT RESIST IT should show early speed and while a little more could have been expected visually they also have a trainer pattern to note with success at this level - a third start at TAM paired with the rider change to S. Camacho.