Handicapper Tips & Picks

ESSEX STAKES (G3):

#1 RED ROUTE ONE is a horse when looking especially at the standard pp’s will present a horse that is “off form” though watching the races, intent and race shape along with track profile a different runner emerges and one that can compete in this race. Their return in the Clark (G2) was a good spot to get a race, a class test too higher though a credible effort all things considered. Projecting to improve in the Tinsel, the trip and TACTIC- getting detached from the field had him out of position still making a strong CLOSE and similar CLOSE racing X_BIAS last month in the Razorback (G3) a race where the top three ran 1-2-3 around the track with minimal change in running order. RED ROUTE ONE with an honest track today should have an honest pace to target with their stablemate #7 UPLOAD and #4 PATRIOT SPIRIT amongst others in this field to compete.

K. Asmussen will pick up the mount and no real concern with that change given the connections as C. Torres remains with #5 KINETIC for B. Cox. KINETIC being a lightly raced type with some upside and runstyle that can assist with a trip and has in his career. That could carry once again though still must handle the class rise stepping up into graded stakes company and figure wise must also improve. Their Godolphin stablemate #2 MAYCOCKS BAY cross entered at the FG brings in a similar runstyle and speed figures though has the graded stakes experience from the races this season races again with respectable numbers though a touch shorter on class (C+) and looking at the ML for this race, projects much shorter here than the double digit odds in LA.  

Class, speed figures and runstyle are similar for #6 SPEED BIAS one that is graded stakes placed has run “winning/B” efforts at the level and bring in both local and current form for their third start this season . Their recent races bring upside off the trips going back to January with the layoff and rail draw finishing in a three horse blanket at the wire and flow upgrade making and last month taking a hard bump at the break (TROUBLE_S) making a WIDE RUSH X_FLOW into a Fast early pace and still this season has yet to run back to their top figures.

#3 TARANTINO also has struggled on the win end at the graded stakes level, a level they have attempted since his sophomore season going back to a place finish in the Holy Bull and minor finishes that followed without much excuse just meeting better on the day. They could catch the right group and intent for the connections and shipping in picking this spot after scratching form the SA Handicap (G1) earlier this month.