Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 2 Poster Pets 1 White Hair Rocks 6 Better Option

P 4 Rose Run Zoar 3 Advertisedaswell 1 Sergeant Highway

P 4 Docdor Friskie 3 Odds On Pick Six 7 Game Of Change

T 2 Bold Strategy 1 Resolute Bay 4 Fox Valley Nautica

P 6 My Pink Pie 5 So So De Vie 2 Wyatt J

P 4 Honali 1 Thinking Of Slim 8 Dogfight

P 4 Not Today 7 Quick Trick 5 Cyclone Banner

P 4 Out On Bail 2 Win Not Lou 6 Shivaiko

P 8 Old Town Road 7 Rockin Daddy 6 Hesa Bully

T 3 Shamrock 2 Winning Legends 9 Lous Private Eye

P 2 Midwind Beach Boy 6 Zanetti 1 Jim Blue

T 8 Tequila Talkin 7 Windsong Patriot 2 Lous Gambler

P 8 Night Shadow 1 Pocket The Cash 4 Makin Some Noise

P 3 Record Machine 5 Daenerys Dream 4 Boozer

P 1 Magic Shark 2 Blue Spanx 3 Magazine Theme

A contentious starter allowance and in that case where any one of the 8 can win value becomes the main separator. #4 DRIFTER fits with speed figures on par and form at OP while he does not have a strong edge in either department, he brings in consistency from the races this season, does not have a layoff line into this race rather a 43-day freshening returning second off the claim and waiting for this spot to race protected, a positive sign.

#1 PRINCIPE CARLO also races protected the type that has been a popular claim and reclaimed by McKnight after quickly losing them back to Jacobson those two training going back for this horse is a position sign. PRINCIPE CARLO also brings in current form from the races this season, 35-day between starts and in terms of runstyle has tactical speed – he might have the same first call speed as rivals #2 WITHOUT OBJECTION and MR PUK though inside that duo can chase to look for first run.

That trip can be key with #8 SUMMER SPLASH from the outside also looking for first run and can fall into that trip that was effective back on 2/16 and that race allows them to compete here otherwise ineligible and noting less restrictions in the 3/8 starter allowance.

A easy case can be made for #3 COUNT DE MONET one that holds plenty of races that fit and remains protected coming back today. They are coming back from a two month break; some pause there though not uncommon for this horse and the works are steady – some mix messages that require some value compensation. 

#7 MALACHI has been chased this season and enough price compensation and run in the races this season to give another longshot look to in this race. The will return to the sprint distance with fitness in this third start and some excuse with the physicality at the break (TROUBLE_S) and making a RUSH into a solid opening ¼. Their form cycle suggests the type of horse that runs an “every other” pattern and keying off the juvenile debut figure could be sitting on a peak effort here.

#2 MIRACLE ON CENTRAL will make a belated return to OP where they appeared to go out looking for the turf at the FG something not an option on this circuit. As they return here they will return to MCL company though a some relief from the 1/4 event, a race that has been productive with not only the race winner Waco coming back but three other next out winners.

#9 G ERIK brought in upside into the 12/29 race making a belated return to the sprint distance, a BTL effort racing 6f on debut and BTL effort with the place finish in that recent start. They have been off since and while entered this year this marks the belated sophomore debut.

In terms of #11 FINE TUNED as the ML favorite, they would be no surprise though in terms of class find closer to a lateral move and in that case lack an edge in this field and lacking value as a result. Their stablemate #12 MAX MISCHIEF caught graded stakes winner First Resort in the debut last July though has been off a long time and has been training for the majority of the year, taking a while to find this spot to return in, a belated second start to MCL company. 

#11 PERFECT DIAL is capable though gives up recency coming back from 50-days since the place finish at 17-1 all out to hold for minors behind pacesetting winner, an event on the Average side and similar for #12 MORE POWER making a belated second start and seasonal debut projected shorter odds for this start along with a higher race par. #6 BOTE could benefit from the class change with the races since the debut competitive and consistent however has not shown enough on the level against older for the top spot. They should be able to transfer their form and move up naturally in this field.

#5 A P RULY could step up with the class drop returning for the claiming tag for the first time since their Dec debut. The 1/23 race has been productive, and they earned a solid figure on the day a number that starts up with today’s par. #1 MY RUSSIAN also with the DROP from 2/23 common race and stronger par from the January event as a horse that required some class relief, the class relief they find here and while a tougher horse to have strong confidence in given the connections, they should be much more competitive today to consider inclusion at longer odds.

In terms of the FTS: #7 AMAZING DAY comes into their debut fit and well placed to compete first out. They have natural gate speed and training consistently this year hold plenty of fitness. The barn is capable with these types of debuting runners and success around this time of the season.

#2 LORD OF RHYMES comes into this race off a strong gate move on 3/11 easily outworking their company and should be all around fit and well placed to compete for capable connections in this category. That will likely translate to shorter odds than the ML suggests, something that has been a pattern for this barn with Torres aboard this season.

#8 MAYOR will make a slightly belated debut here noting they were entered on 2/23 in a statebred MSW and mentally unprepared was a late scratch. It is encouraging they worked the very next day with the move from the gate and two works that followed going into the initial placement was working heads with recent statebred MCL winner, Penrod. While the class change is noted here they could be looking for the best place to run as we could be starting to look towards the end of the meet. 

#4 STHENIC comes into this race with form on the year starting off with a TROUBLE trip in a likely PREP in allowance company and moving up with a competitive race under claiming conditions in February. This spot while a lower par is a closer to a lateral move noting the shift to open company – though the majority of the field are fellow AR-bred.

#12 CHIPOTLE PEPPER one of the few non AR Bred runners has been competitive this season under similar N2 conditioned races though still looking for that first win. Their early speed could present the BOS though unlikely to be alone in that role and does have the other pacesetters well to her inside taking up the far outside post.

Her biggest threat with a shared runstyle comes from #5 FLY LIKE THE WIND wheeling right back and returning to claiming company, a level and par where she was competitive on 2/3 though still a touch short of a winning effort on the day. Her stablemate #1 SUNNYANDSEVENTY must turn things around and show up with  a new top effort to compete though in terms of the two races this season she has not been asked for her best late and could find the move forward with the racing and in today’s dynamic. #2 NGALA also brings in early speed though not a true “need the lead” type and could be taken as a positive with the return to Bejarano, the rider up for her place finish on debut running from off the pace and aboard for the dominant maiden win last season. 

#3 SPOTAWAY finds the class drop for the third start this season and with a legitimate EX on debut and flow upgrade from the 2/15 event could see improvement with all things coming together in this spot. While the debut had an EX with the trip there was some intent given the public support from a 15-1 ML something that could see shorter than the higher ML assignment once again today.

#10 PAYTON’S BEAUTY had an EX in her second career start and showing up this year off the layoff has improved with each race in terms of speed figures and could take another step forward here, something required on the win end. She put in a competitive effort with the trip to finish place under similar conditions two weeks ago and a return to that effort has them right back on par here.

#4 FLAMING GLORY follows from the 3/9 race and quick turnaround for this second start of the meet and should hold fitness working just days’ before the return event and following a SLOG and WIDE trip as a result. The speed figures she recorded in the first two starts back at CD as a juvenile fit on par and would just need to pair up those efforts to compete in this field.

In terms of the S. Asmussen pair, the class change is closer to a lateral move for #2 FUNDING SOURCE one that could benefit from a more a assertive ride than their debut though at the same also could require a move forward. FTS #12 COVENTINA is capable with these connections first out though gives up racing and local experience training out of town and with the outside post as another potential hurdle at a projected shorter number. 

Jacobson had planned to run #3 SITTIN ON GO at this condition on 2/24 though opted to run at the higher conditional $40k two weeks ago. The placement, layoff and showing up with the front wraps along with the in running visuals could suggest a PREP and would look for the equipment change today while encouraging with the quick turnaround and assignment with Santana aboard.

#8 COINAGE follows SITTIN ON GO from that 3/8 event and another wit h a change in class drop the races this season. That could be key not only to find their top form but also for this distance, a two turn distance perhaps further than their ideal though capable under the right scenario. The ML seems fair to make a longshot case as COINAGE is a legitimate though not impossible longshot.

#11 FIFTY CENT DOLLARS has opposite value concerns at a shorter number though a logical type freshened and placed at this level reclaimed by C. Hartman. They are familiar with this runner starting off the career in this barn and around for a pair of the wins and place finish back in January. Number wise they have recorded higher figures in the past something that could be key for the top spot though keying off the place finishes from off the pace, they should find a similar race dynamic to target.                                                                                

#9 CAMP DAVID is another legitimate though not impossible longshot as they must find their top form with the quickness to compete. With that said, they find some subtle changes along with current conditioning off the races this season with the flow upgrade from the 2/8 event and more preferable timing with the 43-days between starts. They could also move up with the change in post shifting to the outside as a horse that does seems to prefer to run outside horses and not always fortunate with that type of draw including inside for the two recent starts. 

#7 ETHEREAL ROAD was claimed and with no hesitation comes right back in two weeks for this race, a lateral class move and upside with the trip COVER early before making a WIDE MOVE X_BIAS on a drying out course tough to make up ground  - the winner and today’s race rival #3 PAT’S PROPERTY taking full advantage.

If #13 RECKER POINT draws in not only could they be upgraded in the selections but also add more early pace to the race. #9 WILLY D’S also brings in early speed and could be the key for today’s race shape where PATS PROPERTY and #10 ARDENWOOD tend to “need the lead” WILLY D’S can press and track and hold speed figures and class to fit today’s par along with local experience going back to prior seasons and from a productive race in January – the race they return from giving up some 77-days of recency.

#8 OVIATT CLASS has been pointed to this meet and seems the connections have been looking for the right spot as they were entered last week in a higher N2 OC allowance event and appears a better fit here and Leparoux assigned that day remains with the call here.  

While C. Torres sticks with #4 AMERICAN LAW, one that should appreciate a little more time between starts, there is not much in terms of runstyle, class and speed figures between AMERICAN LAW and #6 HUGE BIGLY the latter not only projected higher of the two but based on the ML could be dismissed by the public. HUHGE BIGLY is type of horse that lacks anything too exciting to get overlooked though fit all the same to make the value case for and when seeking out a price alternative to AMERICAN LAW, while respecting them and the connections in this race could be worth trying to take them on at a shorter number. Will also note #2 HAYES STRIKE will race here along with stablemate AMERICAN LAW first off the claim and current rise in class though back class and figures that put them and their late run in the mix.

#5 ELUSIVE TARGET find class relief off their allowance races this season and returning to claiming company finds a similar pair to the events back in November at CD where they were competitive. That is consistent with last season moving up with a similar trip and place finish in the March claiming event. 

The 5.5f distance of this race could turn it into a specialties race and shifting things from runners assessed by their form at the 6f distance. That would give a longshot look to #2 WON HAPPY MAMA with their career high figure at this distance last May and showing up right back second off the layoff, a flow upgrade and potential mental upgrade as they were very reluctant to load in the GATE. She could outbreak #7 GLORIETTE for the distance and one coming off back to back top efforts this season with a shorter sprint and different race dynamic here.

#3 WISE MISS holds an open length win at the 5f distance breaking her maiden last August showing early speed while still showing the ability to pass horses, something that translated to the win with a similar trip in late January and has been freshened from that event taking a slight rise here. #5 KANT BELIEVE IT also has had success sprinting shorter and success at OP while coming back from a long layoff keying off the N1 allowance win last April.

#9 DEMIDANU has three wins at the 5.5f distance with speed figures on par and with current form in this third start of the season. She turned in a credible place finish back in January first off the layoff and perhaps not the ideal timing last month with the addition of front wraps, a change today that could signal a positive sign. A top effort will be required and tested on this circuit noting a change from those efforts and most in statebred company, though plenty of price compensation to try and get creative with. 

#5 HEY MISTER had a look wheeling back from the debut two weeks ago the type of visuals to suggest they can IMPROVE off the outcome showing interest after a poor break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) making a WIDE MOVE.

#2 STILLBILLY find a lateral change in class from a competitive effort after a poor start three weeks ago improving at each point of call behind the winner, Rerun. #4 GET AWAY WITH IT also from that race and despite the outside post was given the right trip and first run unable to hold off Rerun late and enough to hold place overall visuals not much between the two on the day. #3 DENALI LIGHTNING also worth a mention as they also projected to IMPROVE after the January start and did just that making a WIDE MOVE in the 3/1 common race. They will require another move forward meeting those place and show finishers from that race though not out of question.

Bowen will take over on DENALI LIGHTNING as T. Bacon sticks with #1 RAZORBACK ARMY could be worth getting creative with as a lightly race type making some changes for this race. In terms of class to take on statebred for the first time and for this race brings in fitness second off the layoff and slight follow upgrade from the 3/9 start, the top three from further off the pace. They should hold fitness here on the two week turnaround and also noting they put in an old-school 3f blowout two days before the return race to further all around conditioning.