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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu March 27th, 2025

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Emily's Analysis

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

With a compact field, might try sneak by with a single and bit of a price in #4 CUPID’S WAR. The 5f distance might not be their ideal, though the same could be said for others in this group to hold against them and them alone. CUPID’S WAR has the local experience for this barn with the first start off the claim in June showing up in MSW company; then opened as the favorite in the July turf sprint and X_FLOW upgrade in both of the route races before finding the sprint distance their home in the maiden races closing out 2024. That FG meet provides the edge on recency exiting the FG meet and current form though it might not appear as such looking on paper. However if looking at OptixPLOT and Past 3 Runlines (FREE every race day at Hawthorne https://hawthorneracecourse.com/handicapper-picks/optixeq-plots/) they were asked to run against much tougher in the 1/17 race and WIDE trip in February followed up with an X_WIDE trip three weeks ago showing an ABOVE Class rating compared to some others in this field.

The ABOVE+/ABOVE designations are tough to ignore on #5 MINIMO if feeling less bold to single in the first race on opening day. MINIMO also holds an edge on recency and potential intent second off where they should hold fitness following a WIDE RUSH in the 3/10 race and represented as the lone Square on Standard (current form) and will note with the Plot there is no Surface/Distance data to Plot given this group as they will also be racing 5f for the first time. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 3:05 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 TEAM TROY brings in recency and current form to Hawthorne off the Turfway series and fitness from those races placed where they can compete. They projected to move up with the class relief, though still caught a higher par on 1/25 at the $30k MCL level, showing rush and X_FLOW upgrade as part of the DUEL; form that translated to the place finish and B- OptixGRADE last month, a figure that fits on par and in line with their stablemate #3 RAMESSES one that shortens up significantly for this race and first time sprinting for this 11th career start.

Both #5 PLUNDER and #7 BERKUS show up here with some of the higher recorded figures in the field, though will be tested to repeat those numbers on the dirt and at a shorter sprint distance. Something that is not out of the question, they are in very capable high percentage hands though something that will also be reflected on the board.

#2 MY LAST ESCAPADE at double digit odds will be too tough to ignore in here. The class DROP was required from the first two starts in MSW company and moved up with competitive races at the MCL level closing out the Hawthorne season. Distance wise they could find the 5f too short and move up with this race under their belt at the same time has the IMPROVE Projection from the 2/5 Turfway race, a race with two next out winners paired with price compensation. 

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The first route race of the meet is a competitive race overall and where pace could make the race. Looking at OptixPLOT, the early pace should be contentious (Sun) and honest (58 SpeedRate) a scenario to assist #4 MYSTIFIER, a solid Q4 Square. MYSTIFIER brings in conditioning from the Oaklawn meet, a competitive race making a WIDE CLOSE back in December and in the following two starts broke VSLOG/SLOG while also compromised racing against a track profile that was “tough to make up ground” according to OptixNOTES.

The Rosin barn will also show up with #3 LINE TO GAIN a barn change and surface switch returning to the dirt and looking to find their top form. They will require that top form to compete here though could find it as they have back numbers that fit on par and the maiden win rider, I. Hernandez back aboard. OptixPLOT has them today all over the Plot with the Standard/current form as a Q4 Circle and Q1 Circle on Surface/Distance as the position to reflect where they had been in the past most of those races prior to the layoff lines in 2023.

Looking at the Plot there is not much to separate #5 BREAKOUT STAR and #7 SLAVA UKRANI to lean towards the higher of the two . Could even give the edge to SLAVA UKRANI, one that ais closer to a more confirmed front runner in addition to holding Hawthorne main track form, something they are proven to handle and could even suggest further intent reuniting with S. Gonzalez. 

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 STARINA should move up with the return to Hawthorne something that brought success with the dominant/B+  MSW win over this course and distance last June and honest effort back in August entered as an MTO level with the place finish.

Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez could play spoiler with a strong hand sending out #4 VISIONISTA and #6 MO SMOKING in this race and complementary 1-2 as far as runstyles. MO SMOKING has been able to brave on the lead and likely most effect in that role and with an assertive hand. She might not have been able to show the same early foot that paired up the wins here at Hawthorne last season with the much higher SpeedRate in all four of the FG races and finds a lower speed rate today. #4 VISIONISTA looks very live wheeling right back for this second in a week and from the 3/20 start off the 75-day layoff where she was not asked for her best (TACTIC-) and showed run (C+) along with in running TROUBLE – something that does not appear to have been caught in the chart comment. 

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:21 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 ONE PUTT RICHIE has been able to fire fresh and win off the layoff keying off the April win in 2023 as well as a solid figure earned in the April 2024. The barn picked up the lone win last year with Mojica aboard, the only time he was aboard, and recorded their season high speed figure with that August 25th win to suggest intent here.

Intent could also follow #9 HATCHET CREEK with J. Loveberry aboard one that will make their belated return from the layoff and has won off a long layoff for this barn in the past. HATCHET CREEK can show legitimate early speed and while Sun Contention is noted for this race, the 20 SpeedRate sits on the lower end to not discount a horse to present as a gate-to-wire threat.

Not trying to be a risky girl by not including #10 RISKY BOY based on the projected odds from the double digit ML as well as their form from last season. Especially their form early in the meet; a win first start of the meet (3/23) off the layoff under similar conditions to today’s race. In addition, finding considerable class relief noting a much higher par (87-78) in those two FG races, something alone that could be enough to put a line through those races and still paired up C+ OptixGRADES.

#8 BREAKING NEWS has the horse to beat credentials keying off their 2024 Hawthorne season and consistent speed figures along with early speed. Perhaps the time away and the 5f distance create some hurdles when trying to poke holes at a shorter number. Going back to last March at the 5f distance with the B-/show finish and continued to improve ultimately putting together three straight (almost 4 straight with the photo finish on 6/22) with the 6f distance change. 

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:47 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 WILDWOOD ADIOS looks well placed and solid Plot position as a Quad I Square looking to get the jump on Q4 Square, #6 FLATHEAD FINALE, the morning line favorite. WILDWOOD ADIOS fits not only on race shape/pace (Above) but also for Speed (Above) and just slightly for Class (Average+) in this spot. In terms of class, she ran in a competitive race for a similar level back on 12/4 at Turfway Park and noted 5f distance. They were flattered as the form from that race has held two next out winner, including the race winner Harmonica. Gate issues have been a pattern for her at times making a RUSH from the blocks on debut and very reluctant to load in the 9/12 turf race; her only start here last season based primarily on timing.

As far as #1 CUMBERLAND FALLS she returns with the barn change and to the dirt and throughout her career holds plenty of figures that fit in or above par. Many of those on conventional dirt and arguably her better races on the surface to support that change in footing. With that said, the 5f is a different question mark altogether. She brings in early speed part of the Fast/Very Fast early pace in the two Turfway starts this season, something that could translate here in this group and with the rail draw.

#7 CALLAS also exiting the Turfway meet turned in a B OptixGRADE effort at this level racing in the rain (WEATHER) however did have a PERFECT ground SAVED trip and with those favorable factors settling for place, the top three together at the wire. Ultimately she might prefer added ground with the recent series of route races though her maiden win was a 5f, an off-the-turf $7.5k MCL win at Belterra Park in 2023. 

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:13 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The trip and distance changes things up for this race and all around factors to upgrade #6 MY LADY SLEW one that has shown early speed and could present a pace advantage. Looking at the Plot, Peter Galassi could be calling her name from the jump though could come down to how much pace pressure as a Circle (weaker finishing ability) late. Some of that Circle is due to placement, running in higher conditioned races last year especially after finding longshot success on the turf. Things change here, perhaps for the positive with the shorter distance as well as some recency and class relief from the two FG races this year.  

#3 MAMBA OUT also brings in early speed and races on her best day that fit on par. She also finds sneaky class relief running at a higher par in the races last summer at FAN/FP as well as the two DED races. She has been given time to reset and regroup and a live look with O. Mojica aboard.

#1 DIXIE PENNY also finds class relief, perhaps more obvious with the recent Oaklawn starts bringing in a level of recency as well. A longer-shot in those races she was given no favors starting off the year with the outside post and moves inside today, something that could assist with trip saving ground and looking for first run.

#4 BE MY BESTIE will also find class relief from the recent two Oaklawn Park starts, races with a higher par and unable to compete on that circuit and race shapes and much higher $33k purse something that should see her move up here. With that said, she is not always the most reliable even when logical and at shorter odds.